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Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) is a symbolic Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach that has been successfully applied across various domains, including medical diagnosis, product configuration, and customer support, to solve problems based on experiential knowledge and analogy. A key aspect of CBR is its problem-solving procedure, where new solutions are created by referencing similar experiences, which makes CBR explainable and effective even with small amounts of data. However, one of the most significant challenges in CBR lies in defining and computing meaningful similarities between new and past problems, which heavily relies on domain-specific knowledge. This knowledge, typically only available through human experts, must be manually acquired, leading to what is commonly known as the knowledge-acquisition bottleneck.
One way to mitigate the knowledge-acquisition bottleneck is through a hybrid approach that combines the symbolic reasoning strengths of CBR with the learning capabilities of Deep Learning (DL), a sub-symbolic AI method. DL, which utilizes deep neural networks, has gained immense popularity due to its ability to automatically learn from raw data to solve complex AI problems such as object detection, question answering, and machine translation. While DL minimizes manual knowledge acquisition by automatically training models from data, it comes with its own limitations, such as requiring large datasets, and being difficult to explain, often functioning as a "black box". By bringing together the symbolic nature of CBR and the data-driven learning abilities of DL, a neuro-symbolic, hybrid AI approach can potentially overcome the limitations of both methods, resulting in systems that are both explainable and capable of learning from data.
The focus of this thesis is on integrating DL into the core task of similarity assessment within CBR, specifically in the domain of process management. Processes are fundamental to numerous industries and sectors, with process management techniques, particularly Business Process Management (BPM), being widely applied to optimize organizational workflows. Process-Oriented Case-Based Reasoning (POCBR) extends traditional CBR to handle procedural data, enabling applications such as adaptive manufacturing, where past processes are analyzed to find alternative solutions when problems arise. However, applying CBR to process management introduces additional complexity, as procedural cases are typically represented as semantically annotated graphs, increasing the knowledge-acquisition effort for both case modeling and similarity assessment.
The key contributions of this thesis are as follows: It presents a method for preparing procedural cases, represented as semantic graphs, to be used as input for neural networks. Handling such complex, structured data represents a significant challenge, particularly given the scarcity of available process data in most organizations. To overcome the issue of data scarcity, the thesis proposes data augmentation techniques to artificially expand the process datasets, enabling more effective training of DL models. Moreover, it explores several deep learning architectures and training setups for learning similarity measures between procedural cases in POCBR applications. This includes the use of experience-based Hyperparameter Optimization (HPO) methods to fine-tune the deep learning models.
Additionally, the thesis addresses the computational challenges posed by graph-based similarity assessments in CBR. The traditional method of determining similarity through subgraph isomorphism checks, which compare nodes and edges across graphs, is computationally expensive. To alleviate this issue, the hybrid approach seeks to use DL models to approximate these similarity calculations more efficiently, thus reducing the computational complexity involved in graph matching.
The experimental evaluations of the corresponding contributions provide consistent results that indicate the benefits of using DL-based similarity measures and case retrieval methods in POCBR applications. The comparison with existing methods, e.g., based on subgraph isomorphism, shows several advantages but also some disadvantages of the compared methods. In summary, the methods and contributions outlined in this work enable more efficient and robust applications of hybrid CBR and DL in process management applications.
There is a wide range of methodologies for policy evaluation and socio-economic impact assessment. A fundamental distinction can be made between micro and macro approaches. In contrast to micro models, which focus on the micro-unit, macro models are used to analyze aggregate variables. The ability of microsimulation models to capture interactions occurring at the micro-level makes them particularly suitable for modeling complex real-world phenomena. The inclusion of a behavioral component into microsimulation models provides a framework for assessing the behavioral effects of policy changes.
The labor market is a primary area of interest for both economists and policy makers. The projection of labor-related variables is particularly important for assessing economic and social development needs, as it provides insight into the potential trajectory of these variables and can be used to design effective policy responses. As a result, the analysis of labor market behavior is a primary area of application for behavioral microsimulation models. Behavioral microsimulation models allow for the study of second-round effects, including changes in hours worked and participation rates resulting from policy reforms. It is important to note, however, that most microsimulation models do not consider the demand side of the labor market.
The combination of micro and macro models offers a possible solution as it constitutes a promising way to integrate the strengths of both models. Of particular relevance is the combination of microsimulation models with general equilibrium models, especially computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. CGE models are classified as structural macroeconomic models, which are defined by their basis in economic theory. Another important category of macroeconomic models are time series models. This thesis examines the potential for linking micro and macro models. The different types of microsimulation models are presented, with special emphasis on discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models. The concept of behavioral microsimulation is introduced to demonstrate the integration of a behavioral element into microsimulation models. For this reason, the concept of utility is introduced and the random utility approach is described in detail. In addition, a brief overview of macro models is given with a focus on general equilibrium models and time series models. Various approaches for linking micro and macro models, which can either be categorized as sequential approaches or integrated approaches, are presented. Furthermore, the concept of link variables is introduced, which play a central role in combining both models. The focus is on the most complex sequential approach, i.e., the bi-directional linking of behavioral microsimulation models with general equilibrium macro models.
The goal of this work is to compare operators that are defined on probably varying Hilbert spaces. Distance concepts for operators as well as convergence concepts for such operators are explained and examined. For distance concepts we present three main notions. All have in common that they use space-linking operators that connect the spaces. At first, we look at unitary maps and compare the unitary orbits of the operators. Then, we consider isometric embeddings, which is based on a concept of Joachim Weidmann. Then we look at contractions but with more norm equations in comparison. The latter idea is based on a concept of Olaf Post called quasi-unitary equivalence. Our main result is that the unitary and isometric distances are equal provided the operators are both self-adjoint and have 0 in their essential spectra. In the third chapter, we focus specifically on the investigation of these distance terms for compact operators or operators in p-Schatten classes. In this case, the interpretation of the spectra as null sequences allows further distance investigation. Chapter four deals mainly with convergence terms of operators on varying Hilbert spaces. The analyses in this work deal exclusively with concepts of norm resolvent convergence. The main conclusion of the chapter is that the generalisation for norm resolvent convergence of Joachim Weidmann and the generalisation of Olaf Post, called quasi-unitary equivalence, are equivalent to each other. In addition, we specify error bounds and deal with the convergence speed of both concepts. Two important implications of these convergence notions are that the approximation is spectrally exact, i.e., the spectra converge suitably, and that the convergence is transferred to the functional calculus of the bounded functions vanishing at infinity.
Der Arbeits- und Fachkräftemangel ist ein breit diskutiertes Thema in Deutschland. Auch im Landkreis Bernkas-tel-Wittlich hat diese Herausforderung in den letzten Jahren zunehmend an Bedeutung gewonnen. Ziel dieses Forschungsberichtes ist es deshalb erstens einen Überblick über die Arbeits- und Fachkräftesituation im Land-kreis zu bieten. Aufbauend auf diese Forschungsergebnisse werden zweitens Handlungsfelder benannt, die ei-nen Rahmen zur Stärkung des Landkreises als produktiven Wirtschaftsstandort und attraktiven Arbeitsort geben sollen.
In this dissertation, I analyze how large players in financial markets exert influence on smaller players and how this affects the decisions of the large ones. I focus on how the large players process information in an uncertain environment, form expectations and communicate these to smaller players through their actions. I examine these relationships empirically in the foreign exchange market and in the context of a game-theoretic model of an investment project.
In Chapter 2, I investigate the relationship between the foreign exchange trading activity of large US-based market participants and the volatility of the nominal spot exchange rate. Using a novel dataset, I utilize the weekly growth rate of aggregate foreign currency positions of major market participants to proxy trading activity in the foreign exchange market. By estimating the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV), I find evidence of a positive relationship between trading activity and volatility, which is mainly driven by unexpected changes in trading activity and is asymmetric for some of the currencies considered. My results contribute to the understanding of the drivers of exchange rate volatility and the role of large players in the flow of information in financial markets.
In Chapters 3 and 4, I consider a sequential global game of an investment project to examine how a large creditor influences the decisions of small creditors with her lending decision. I pay particular attention to the timing of the large player’s decision, i.e. whether she makes her decision to roll over a credit before or after the small players. I show that she faces a trade-off between signaling to and learning from small creditors. By being a focal point for coordination, her actions have a substantial impact on the probability of coordination failure and the failure of the investment project. I investigate the sensitivity of the equilibrium by comparing settings with perfect and imperfect learning. The results highlight the importance of signaling and provide a new perspective on the idea of catalytic finance and the influence of a lender-of-last-resort in self-fulfilling debt crises.
The cumulative and bidirectional groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction along a stream is defined as hydrological turnover (HT) influencing solute transport and source water composition. However, HT proves to be highly variable, producing spatial exchange patterns influenced by local groundwater, geology, and topography. Hence, identifying factors controlling HT poses a challenge. We studied spatiotemporal HT variability at two reaches of a third order tributary of the river Mosel, Germany. Additionally, we sampled for silica concentrations in the stream and in the near-stream groundwater. Thus, creating snapshots of the boundary layer between ground- and surface water where HT occurs, driven by mixing processes in the hyporheic zone. We utilize an enhanced hydrograph separation method, unveiling reach differences in storage drainage based on aquifer dimension and connectivity. The data shows a site-specific negative correlation of HT with discharge, while hydraulic gradients correlate with HT only at the reach with faster catchment drainage behavior. Examining silica concentrations between stream and wells shows that silica variation increases significantly with the decrease of HT under low flow conditions at the slower draining reach. At the fast draining reach this relationship is seasonal. In Summary, our results show that stream discharge shapes the influence of HT on solute transport. Yet, reach drainage behavior shapes seasonal states of groundwater storages and can be an additional control of HT. Hence, concentration change of pollutants could be masked by HT. Thus, our findings contribute to the understanding of HT variability along streams and its ability of influencing physico-chemical stream water composition.
Introduction: Apart from a few studies with limited sample sizes, we have little data on attitudes toward lesbian and gay (LG) people in Greece. Methods: This study examines this topic in 949 heterosexual Greek participants. Based on previous research in cultural contexts other than Greece, we hypothesized that four demographics (gender, age, education, area of residence) and religious and political orientation predict a substantial amount of variance in homophobia (i.e., anti-LG attitudes). Results: We verified all observed variables except area of residence as significant predictors. Regarding the “intergroup contact hypothesis,” we distinguished the direct effects of the predictor variables from indirect effects mediated by contact with lesbians and gay men. All variables except area of residence showed a direct effect and, except for education, also an indirect effect on homophobia. The strongest effects were found for religious and political orientation, followed by gender. Highly religious, right-wing oriented, and male participants reported the highest levels of homophobia, partially mediated by their low level of contact with LG people. Discussion/Conclusion: The results confirm and further explain the detrimental role the Greek Orthodox Church, right-wing political parties, and traditional gender roles play in the acceptance of sexual minorities.
Background: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in mental health, showing promise in assessing disorders. However, concerns exist regarding their accuracy, reliability, and fairness. Societal biases and underrepresentation of certain populations may impact LLMs. Because LLMs are already used for clinical practice, including decision support, it is important to investigate potential biases to ensure a responsible use of LLMs. Anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) show a lifetime prevalence of 1%-2%, affecting more women than men. Among men, homosexual men face a higher risk of eating disorders (EDs) than heterosexual men. However, men are underrepresented in ED research, and studies on gender, sexual orientation, and their impact on AN and BN prevalence, symptoms, and treatment outcomes remain limited.
Objectives: We aimed to estimate the presence and size of bias related to gender and sexual orientation produced by a common LLM as well as a smaller LLM specifically trained for mental health analyses, exemplified in the context of ED symptomatology and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients with AN or BN.
Methods: We extracted 30 case vignettes (22 AN and 8 BN) from scientific papers. We adapted each vignette to create 4 versions, describing a female versus male patient living with their female versus male partner (2 × 2 design), yielding 120 vignettes. We then fed each vignette into ChatGPT-4 and to “MentaLLaMA” based on the Large Language Model Meta AI (LLaMA) architecture thrice with the instruction to evaluate them by providing responses to 2 psychometric instruments, the RAND-36 questionnaire assessing HRQoL and the eating disorder examination questionnaire. With the resulting LLM-generated scores, we calculated multilevel models with a random intercept for gender and sexual orientation (accounting for within-vignette variance), nested in vignettes (accounting for between-vignette variance).
Results: In ChatGPT-4, the multilevel model with 360 observations indicated a significant association with gender for the RAND-36 mental composite summary (conditional means: 12.8 for male and 15.1 for female cases; 95% CI of the effect –6.15 to -0.35; P=.04) but neither with sexual orientation (P=.71) nor with an interaction effect (P=.37). We found no indications for main effects of gender (conditional means: 5.65 for male and 5.61 for female cases; 95% CI –0.10 to 0.14; P=.88), sexual orientation (conditional means: 5.63 for heterosexual and 5.62 for homosexual cases; 95% CI –0.14 to 0.09; P=.67), or for an interaction effect (P=.61, 95% CI –0.11 to 0.19) for the eating disorder examination questionnaire overall score (conditional means 5.59-5.65 95% CIs 5.45 to 5.7). MentaLLaMA did not yield reliable results.
Conclusions: LLM-generated mental HRQoL estimates for AN and BN case vignettes may be biased by gender, with male cases scoring lower despite no real-world evidence supporting this pattern. This highlights the risk of bias in generative artificial intelligence in the field of mental health. Understanding and mitigating biases related to gender and other factors, such as ethnicity, and socioeconomic status are crucial for responsible use in diagnostics and treatment recommendations.
Background: Suicide represents a critical public health concern, and machine learning (ML) models offer the potential for identifying at-risk individuals. Recent studies using benchmark datasets and real-world social media data have demonstrated the capability of pretrained large language models in predicting suicidal ideation and behaviors (SIB) in speech and text.
Objective: This study aimed to (1) develop and implement ML methods for predicting SIBs in a real-world crisis helpline dataset, using transformer-based pretrained models as a foundation; (2) evaluate, cross-validate, and benchmark the model against traditional text classification approaches; and (3) train an explainable model to highlight relevant risk-associated features.
Methods: We analyzed chat protocols from adolescents and young adults (aged 14-25 years) seeking assistance from a German crisis helpline. An ML model was developed using a transformer-based language model architecture with pretrained weights and long short-term memory layers. The model predicted suicidal ideation (SI) and advanced suicidal engagement (ASE), as indicated by composite Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale scores. We compared model performance against a classical word-vector-based ML model. We subsequently computed discrimination, calibration, clinical utility, and explainability information using a Shapley Additive Explanations value-based post hoc estimation model.
Results: The dataset comprised 1348 help-seeking encounters (1011 for training and 337 for testing). The transformer-based classifier achieved a macroaveraged area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of 0.89 (95% CI 0.81-0.91) and an overall accuracy of 0.79 (95% CI 0.73-0.99). This performance surpassed the word-vector-based baseline model (AUC-ROC=0.77, 95% CI 0.64-0.90; accuracy=0.61, 95% CI 0.61-0.80). The transformer model demonstrated excellent prediction for nonsuicidal sessions (AUC-ROC=0.96, 95% CI 0.96-0.99) and good prediction for SI and ASE, with AUC-ROCs of 0.85 (95% CI 0.97-0.86) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.81-0.88), respectively. The Brier Skill Score indicated a 44% improvement in classification performance over the baseline model. The Shapley Additive Explanations model identified language features predictive of SIBs, including self-reference, negation, expressions of low self-esteem, and absolutist language.
Conclusions: Neural networks using large language model–based transfer learning can accurately identify SI and ASE. The post hoc explainer model revealed language features associated with SI and ASE. Such models may potentially support clinical decision-making in suicide prevention services. Future research should explore multimodal input features and temporal aspects of suicide risk.
Background: As digital mental health delivery becomes increasingly prominent, a solid evidence base regarding its efficacy is needed.
Objective: This study aims to synthesize evidence on the comparative efficacy of systemic psychotherapy interventions provided via digital versus face-to-face delivery modalities.
Methods: We followed PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines for searching PubMed, Embase, Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and PSYNDEX and conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. We included randomized controlled trials comparing mental, behavioral, and somatic outcomes of systemic psychotherapy interventions using self- and therapist-guided digital versus face-to-face delivery modalities. The risk of bias was assessed with the revised Cochrane Risk of Bias tool for randomized trials. Where appropriate, we calculated standardized mean differences and risk ratios. We calculated separate mean differences for nonaggregated analysis.
Results: We screened 3633 references and included 12 articles reporting on 4 trials (N=754). Participants were youths with poor diabetic control, traumatic brain injuries, increased risk behavior likelihood, and parents of youths with anorexia nervosa. A total of 56 outcomes were identified. Two trials provided digital intervention delivery via videoconferencing: one via an interactive graphic interface and one via a web-based program. In total, 23% (14/60) of risk of bias judgments were high risk, 42% (25/60) were some concerns, and 35% (21/60) were low risk. Due to heterogeneity in the data, meta-analysis was deemed inappropriate for 96% (54/56) of outcomes, which were interpreted qualitatively instead. Nonaggregated analyses of mean differences and CIs between delivery modalities yielded mixed results, with superiority of the digital delivery modality for 18% (10/56) of outcomes, superiority of the face-to-face delivery modality for 5% (3/56) of outcomes, equivalence between delivery modalities for 2% (1/56) of outcomes, and neither superiority of one modality nor equivalence between modalities for 75% (42/56) of outcomes. Consequently, for most outcome measures, no indication of superiority or equivalence regarding the relative efficacy of either delivery modality can be made at this stage. We further meta-analytically compared digital versus face-to-face delivery modalities for attrition (risk ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.52-2.03; P=.93) and number of sessions attended (standardized mean difference –0.11; 95% CI –1.13 to –0.91; P=.83), finding no significant differences between modalities, while CIs falling outside the range of the minimal important difference indicate that equivalence cannot be determined at this stage.
Conclusions: Evidence on digital and face-to-face modalities for systemic psychotherapy interventions is largely heterogeneous, limiting conclusions regarding the differential efficacy of digital and face-to-face delivery. Nonaggregated and meta-analytic analyses did not indicate the superiority of either delivery condition. More research is needed to conclude if digital and face-to-face delivery modalities are generally equivalent or if—and in which contexts—one modality is superior to another.