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Modellierung von o-PO4- Einträgen in saarländische Oberflächenwasserkörper im Trockenwetterfall
(2025)
Die Verfügbarkeit von ortho-Phosphat (o-PO₄) trägt wesentlich zur Eutrophierung von Fließgewässern bei und gefährdet damit das Erreichen des „guten ökologischen Zustands“ gemäß der EU-Wasserrahmenrichtlinie. Da die kommunalen Kläranlagen zentrale Eintragsquellen darstellen, gewinnt die Reduktion von o-PO₄ an dieser Stelle an Bedeutung. Neben der chemischen Phosphorelimination bietet insbesondere die vierte Reinigungsstufe, primär zur Entfernung von Mikroschadstoffen konzipiert, einen Synergieeffekt mit potenziellen Phosphorentfernungsraten von bis zu 85 %.
Zur Bewertung des Einflusses einer solchen Reinigungsstufe wurde ein Modell für ausgewählte saarländische Oberflächenwasserkörper (OWK) entwickelt, das den Trockenwetterfall als eutrophierungsrelevantes Szenario abbildet. Ein zentraler Bestandteil ist ein neu erarbeiteter Retentionsansatz, der biochemische und physikalische Prozesse wie Adsorption, Sedimentation und biologische Assimilation berücksichtigt. Auf Basis der Differenz zwischen emissionsseitig bilanziertem und gemessenem o-PO₄-Gehalt wurden für jeden OWK Verminderungsraten je Fließmeter abgeleitet und schließlich eine Gleichung zur Abschätzung der Retention in Abhängigkeit der Einzugsgebietsgröße formuliert. Die Validierung zeigt hinreichende Modellgenauigkeit, wenngleich negative Frachtdifferenzen in einigen Gewässern auf zusätzliche, nicht eindeutig quantifizierbare Einträge – etwa aus Landwirtschaft oder Kanalverlusten – hindeuten.
Die Szenarienanalyse belegt, dass eine vierte Reinigungsstufe grundsätzlich zur Reduktion von o-PO₄ an den Messstellen beiträgt. Eine Unterschreitung des geltenden Orientierungswertes wird jedoch nur erreicht, wenn sämtliche Kläranlagen eines OWK nachgerüstet werden – und auch dann nur in einigen Fällen. Damit stellt die vierte Reinigungsstufe allein keine ausreichende Alternative zu den Maßnahmen des 3. Bewirtschaftungsplans des Saarlandes dar, kann jedoch als ergänzende Strategie zur Verringerung der Phosphoreinträge dienen.
Price indices play a vital role in economic measurement as they reflect price levels
and measure price fluctuations. Price level measures are used with macroeconomic
indicators to express them in real terms. These measures are also used to index wages,
rents, and pensions. Furthermore, they are used as a reference for monetary policy
conducted by central banks. Therefore, the provision of accurate price indices is one
of the most important goals of National Statistical Institutes (NSIs), and numerous
studies have been devoted to this goal.
This cumulative dissertation also contributes to this goal. It contains four chapters,
each of which represents a separate research. The first two studies are devoted to
the treatment of seasonal products by using different price index methods. The first
research is co-authored with Ken van Loon. The third research is dedicated to finding
the most accurate method to make price predictions for missing products. The fourth
research is focused on the treatment of products by using different price index methods
when products’ quality characteristics are available.
Measuring the economic activity of a country requires high-quality data of businesses. In the case of Germany, this is not only required at national level, but also at federal state level and for different economic sectors. Important sources for high-quality business data are the business register and, among others, also 14 business surveys which are conducted by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. However, the quality requirements of the Federal Statistical Office are in contrast to the interests of the businesses themselves. For them, answering to a survey's questionnaire is an additional cost factor, also known as response burden. A high response burden should be avoided, since it can have a negative impact on the quality of the businesses' responses to the surveys. Therefore, sample coordination can be used as a method to control the distribution of response burden while securing high-quality data.
When applying already existing business survey coordination systems, developed by different statistical institutes, legal and administrative standards of German official statistics have to be taken into account. These standards consider different sampling fractions, rotation fractions, periodicity, and stratification of the aforementioned 14 business surveys. Therefore, the aim of this doctoral thesis is to check the existing business survey coordination systems for their applicability in the context of German official statistics and, if necessary, to modify them accordingly. These modifications include the introduction of individual burden indicators which aim to take the individual perception of response burden into account.
For this purpose, several synthetic data sets have been created to test the application of the modified versions of the different business survey coordination systems through Monte Carlo simulation studies. These data sets include a large panel data set, reflecting the landscape of businesses in Rhineland-Palatinate and three smaller, synthetic data sets. The latter have been created with the help of the R package BuSuCo which has been developed within the scope of this thesis. The above mentioned simulation studies are evaluated based on different measures for estimation quality as well as for the concentration and distribution of response burden.
The application of machine learning and deep learning methods to hydrological modelling has advanced significantly in recent years, offering alternatives to traditional conceptual and physically based approaches. Within the numerous algorithms, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have proven themselves particularly useful for the task of streamflow modelling. This thesis provides a collection of publications that investigate the capabilities, limitations and interpretability of LSTM for the purpose of streamflow modelling and climate change impact assessment within the lowland Ems catchment in Northwest Germany.
Within a comparative performance evaluation, LSTM and its predecessor, the recurrent neural network, demonstrate superior accuracy compared to the conceptual HBV model across various statistical performance metrics. However, a decline in performance was observed during low-flow conditions in certain sub-catchments. The evaluation of the flow duration curve revealed that the ML models more effectively capture the water balance, while HBV better represents streamflow dynamics.
To enhance the interpretability of LSTM, six explainable artificial intelligence techniques were applied. These methods consistently identified seasonal patterns in the temporal relevance of hydroclimatic input data. In combination with an observed correlation between the internal LSTM states and catchment-scale soil moisture dynamics, the findings suggest that LSTM models are capable of implicitly learning the relevant hydrological processes.
Following, the capabilities of LSTM to model climate change impact scenarios, particularly when they extend beyond historically observed climate conditions, are addressed. An ensemble of climate change projections is provided as hydroclimatic input to evaluate the performance of LSTMs and conceptual models. While all models reveal heterogeneous alterations in streamflow under future climate conditions, significant differences emerge based on the model type. Results provide evidence that LSTMs, in combination with the temperature-based Haude formula for estimating potential evaporation, work inadequately under altered climatic regimes, raising concerns about their applicability in long-term projections. The study also indicates the potential need to incorporate physical constraints into LSTM architectures to ensure model robustness and hydrological plausibility beyond the historical training range.
Collectively, this thesis contributes important insights into the applicability and interpretability of LSTM models in streamflow modelling. Despite the presence of a physically realistic representation of soil moisture dynamics of the Ems catchment, no robust change signals for streamflow under climate change can be derived. Those results underscore the potential of LSTM model approaches for accurate streamflow simulation, however, they require us to always critically question LSTM results, particularly when they are applied outside the training range.
Einige Forschungsergebnisse zeigen, dass emotionale Empfindungen kognitive Bereiche beeinflussen oder mit diesen im Zusammenhang stehen. Aufbauend auf den Ergebnissen wurden zwei Studien konzipiert. In Studie 1 wurde der Zusammenhang zwischen den Valenzen der dispositionalen emotionalen Empfindungen und der globalen Selbstbewertung des Gedächtnisses (Metagedächtnis) bei Lehramtsstudierenden (N = 218) untersucht. Die dispositionalen Empfindungen wurden mittels des deutschen Positive and Negativ Affect Schedule (PANAS) (Krohne, Egloff, Kohlmann & Tausch, 1996) und die globale Selbstbewertung des Gedächtnisses mit dem deutschen Squire Subjective Memory Questionnaire (SSMQ) (Wolf, 2017) erfasst. Angenommen wurde, dass die positive Valenz im Gegensatz zu der negativen Valenz im positiven Zusammenhang mit der höheren Gedächtniseinschätzung stehen. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen die Hypothesen. In Studie 2 wurde die aktuelle Valenz mittels des Open Affective Standardized Image Set (OASIS) (Kurdi, Lozano & Banaji, 2017) induziert, um Veränderungen des Metagedächtnisses und der tatsächlichen Gedächtnisleistung bei Lehramtsstudierenden (N = 44) zu untersuchen. Angenommen wurde, dass die positive Valenz positiv, die negative Valenz negativ und die neutrale Valenz nicht auf das Metagedächtnis und die Gedächtnisleistung wirkt. Weitere Zusammenhänge zwischen dem Metagedächtnis und der Gedächtnisleistung sowie der induzierten Valenz und der Gedächtnisleistung wurden angenommen. Die Messinstrumente aus Studie 1 blieben dieselben. Die Gedächtnisleistung wurde mittels eines sinnarmen Silbentests nach Ebbinghaus (1885) operationalisiert. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen die Hypothesen nicht. Die Emotionsinduktion hatte keinen Erfolg. Die Ergebnisse können damit nicht auf eine veränderte Valenz bezogen werden. Wie in Studie 1 zeigte sich ein Zusammenhang zwischen den dispositionalen Empfindungen und dem Metagedächtnis. Weitere explorative Ergebnisse, vor allem im Bezug auf das Geschlecht, wurden dargestellt. Die Ergebnisse sind bedeutsam für die Professionalisierung von Lehramtsstudierenden.
This dissertation examines how individuals unlock their personal power by investigating individual differences in self-regulation, in particular, how situational conditions interact with the personality dispositions of action versus state orientation. Action-oriented individuals are well able to regulate their affective states and to bridge the intention–behavior gap, showing initiative, implementing demanding intentions, and resisting temptations. State-oriented individuals, by contrast, often struggle to regulate affect and experience difficulties enacting intentions, especially under demanding conditions, tending to hesitate and ruminate. While extensive research has highlighted the advantages of action orientation across various domains such as education and health, this thesis challenges the prevailing one-sided perspective that presents action orientation as inherently superior and frames state orientation negatively. Drawing on Personality Systems Interactions theory, the dissertation adopts a dynamic view that understands these dispositions as context-sensitive rather than fixed. The central assumption is that action and state orientation each require different kinds of situational conditions to fully unlock their potential. Across six empirical studies (overall N = 1,067) using a multimethod approach that combines experimental and survey-based research in diverse populations and contextual settings, this dissertation examines (1) action and state orientation as distinct dispositions, (2) their dynamic interaction with situational factors, and (3) ways to support each in mobilizing personal power. Overall, the findings show that each disposition offers unique advantages - they simply require different situational conditions for their potential to unfold.
The role of implicit motives for affective, cognitive and behavioral processes has been a focal part of psychological research for decades. Yet, the majority of research in this field has been concentrated on processes involving implicit motives in adulthood. The systematic investigation of developmental correlates of implicit motives remains largely uncharted. The studies cumulated in this thesis aim to add to the sparse research on implicit motives in childhood and adolescence. Specifically, the development of the implicit power motive in the transition of middle to late childhood as a function of parenting behavior (Chapter 4), the predictive value of the implicit achievement motive for objective swimming performance in children and adolescents (Chapter 5) and the role of motive congruence for successful goal realization in adolescent samples across two cultures (Chapter 6) were investigated. Results of Study 1 (Chapter 4) indicate a negative longitudinal association of authoritarian parenting with the implicit power motive in children that is moderated by children’s perception of psychologically controlling parenting. Study 2 (Chapter 5) extends existing research on the assumed positive association of the implicit achievement motive and sports performance and demonstrates the moderating role of competitive anxiety on this association. Finally, Study 3 (Chapter 6) illustrates a moderating effect of implicit motives on the association of goal commitment and successful goal realization in German and Zambian adolescents, however, this effect was only observed in the domain of power motivation. Findings from all three studies are discussed in the context of the significance of implicit motives for psychological research.
Norming of psychological tests is crucial for the accurate interpretation of test scores. Conventional norming, which relies on subgroups, may introduce bias and requires large samples (uneconomic) to achieve high precision (i.e., low standard errors) of the estimated norm scores. Continuous norming has been proposed as a solution to reduce bias and resolve the dilemma between economy and precision. Continuous norming estimates norm scores based on the entire normative samples – rather than subgroups – using (non-linear) regression. The aim of this dissertation is to examine continuous norming methods to improve both test development and psychological diagnostics.
To this end, this dissertation comprises four research studies. This first study includes both a systematic review of continuous norming and an empirical study. The systematic review introduces different continuous norming methods and highlights their respective advantages and limitations. The empirical study compares the precision of conventional and continuous norms and investigates the presentation of continuous norms in classical norm tables. The second study provides a systematic overview of German-language tests, showing that continuous norming methods are rarely applied and that descriptions of the norming process in test manuals are often scarce. Such a scarce reporting hinders a critical evaluation of the estimated norm scores. To address this issue, the third study introduces guidelines for reporting on norm-referenced scores. The guidelines cover relevant aspects along the entire norming process and provide detailed information on each aspect. One aspect, where the guidance is limited, is determining the required sample size. The fourth study addresses this gap by providing empirical based guidance to determine the required sample size for continuous norming.
For a comprehensive evaluation of continuous norming, I combined the findings of these studies with (1) an illustration of the effects of bias and precision on individual diagnostics and the financial costs of normative studies, (2) an updated systematic literature search, and (3) an examination of applied norming practices in recently published tests. This integration allowed the extraction of seven best practices for continuous norming. The first best practice is to favor continuous over conventional norming, as it effectively resolves the economy-precision dilemma: continuous norming produces less biased norms than conventional norming and requires smaller sample sizes to achieve high precision. Despite these advantages, continuous norming is still rarely applied in German-language tests. The guidelines and sample-size recommendations provided in this dissertation may facilitate a wider adoption of continuous norming methods, thereby improving both test development and psychological diagnostics.
Hydrological models can be categorised into three groups: empirical models that are based on simple mathematical functions or being data-driven, conceptual models that rely on abstract combinations of storages and fluxes to depict catchment processes, or physically-based models that are structurally complex and incorporate physical interactions at different scales to simulate processes and system states. To calibrate and evaluate especially physically-based models, the use of multi-criteria evaluation schemes has proven to be effective to find model parameterisations that can reproduce multiple catchment processes and states instead of only the discharge. However, uncertainty in models, originating from different sources, often limits the robust interpretability of simulation results, making it necessary to assess how modelling applications can be improved to reduce uncertainty.
In this thesis, the relevance of structural adequacy for the depiction of processes in models was demonstrated for the micro level for the example of dynamic phenology, where spatiotemporal model performance was improved by implementing a dynamic approach to modelling leaf emergence instead of a static one. For model evaluation at macro level, it was shown how a multi-criteria approach combining groundwater dynamics, surface runoff patterns and discharge can identify process-behavioural parameterisations and thus improve process depiction in hydrological models. At the meta level, it was demonstrated how the quasi-coupling of a hydrological and a hydraulic model can combine the different strengths of both models to simulate surface runoff processes taking infiltration into account, whereby the relevance of multi-criteria evaluated hydrological models for the derivation of hydrological variables was shown. In addition, uncertainty was explicitly incorporated into model evaluation at the meta level, where a virtual reality model approach was applied to assess the contribution that different variables can make to model evaluation when the associated measurement uncertainty is taken into account.
Based on the individual results, it was possible to conclude that uncertainty and its different sources are a relevant factor in model evaluation at different levels and could be reduced by improving structural model adequacy, adapting model application approaches, and explicitly incorporating uncertainty into model evaluations.
This thesis seeks to improve the understanding of evolution and habitat as key factors forming tadpole morphology (i.e. of larvae of the order Anura), uncovers existing gaps in current research and recommends strategies and directions for future research. The present study improves the knowledge about the influences of evolution and habitat on the bauplan of tadpoles in a global scale ensuring maximum standardization and comparability of the data. In relation to the total number of tadpoles assumed to exist, only a small proportion has been described and only a few of them have been identified genetically. The lack of a global standard for their description makes it difficult to compare data. Using the tadpole of a harlequin frog (Atelopus) from Guiana region, it is shown that only an integrative approach with morphological and genetic data can solve taxonomic problems. In the study area of Madagascar, it becomes evident that in this region the common genetic history only has little influence on morphology, in contrast to the aquatic way of life. Tadpoles from flowing waters develop larger eyes, more robust tail muscles and smaller fins to cope better with current conditions and move more efficiently. In an additional study, the examination is extended to an almost global level. To achieve the intended standardization, over 1000 individuals (tadpoles) from 144 species have been examined. It can be shown that the common evolutionary history on a global scale influences morphology as strongly as the habitat. In addition, the influence of specialized nutrition and the climate is investigated.