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Finding behavioral parameterization for a 1-D water balance model by multi-criteria evaluation
(2019)
Evapotranspiration is often estimated by numerical simulation. However, to produce accurate simulations, these models usually require on-site measurements for parameterization or calibration. We have to make sure that the model realistically reproduces both, the temporal patterns of soil moisture and evapotranspiration. In this study, we combine three sources of information: (i) measurements of sap velocities; (ii) soil moisture; and (iii) expert knowledge on local runoff generation and water balance to define constraints for a “behavioral” forest stand water balance model. Aiming for a behavioral model, we adjusted soil moisture at saturation, bulk resistance parameters and the parameters of the water retention curve (WRC). We found that the shape of the WRC influences substantially the behavior of the simulation model. Here, only one model realization could be referred to as “behavioral”. All other realizations failed for a least one of our evaluation criteria: Not only transpiration and soil moisture are simulated consistently with our observations, but also total water balance and runoff generation processes. The introduction of a multi-criteria evaluation scheme for the detection of unrealistic outputs made it possible to identify a well performing parameter set. Our findings indicate that measurement of different fluxes and state variables instead of just one and expert knowledge concerning runoff generation facilitate the parameterization of a hydrological model.
This doctoral thesis includes five studies that deal with the topics work, well-being, and family formation, as well as their interaction. The studies aim to find answers to the following questions: Do workers’ personality traits determine whether they sort into jobs with performance appraisals? Does job insecurity result in lower quality and quantity of sleep? Do public smoking bans affect subjective well-being by changing individuals’ use of leisure time? Can risk preferences help to explain non-traditional family forms? And finally, are differences in out-of-partnership birth rates between East and West Germany driven by cultural characteristics that have evolved in the two separate politico-economic systems? To answer these questions, the following chapters use basic economic subjects such as working conditions, income, and time use, but also employ a range of sociological and psychological concepts such as personality traits and satisfaction measures. Furthermore, all five studies use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), a representative longitudinal panel of private households in Germany, and apply state-of-the-art microeconometric methods. The findings of this doctoral thesis are important for individuals, employers, and policymakers. Workers and employers benefit from knowing the determinants of occupational sorting, as vacancies can be filled more accurately. Moreover, knowing which job-related problems lead to lower well-being and potentially higher sickness absence likely increases efficiency in the workplace. The research on smoking bans and family formation in chapters 4, 5, and 6 is particularly interesting for policymakers. The results on the effects of smoking bans on subjective well-being presented in chapter 4 suggest that the impacts of tobacco control policies could be weighed more carefully. Additionally, understanding why women are willing to take the risks associated with single motherhood can help to improve policies targeting single mothers.
The dissertation includes three published articles on which the development of a theoretical model of motivational and self-regulatory determinants of the intention to comprehensively search for health information is based. The first article focuses on building a solid theoretical foundation as to the nature of a comprehensive search for health information and enabling its integration into a broader conceptual framework. Based on subjective source perceptions, a taxonomy of health information sources was developed. The aim of this taxonomy was to identify most fundamental source characteristics to provide a point of reference when it comes to relating to the target objects of a comprehensive search. Three basic source characteristics were identified: expertise, interaction and accessibility. The second article reports on the development and evaluation of an instrument measuring the goals individuals have when seeking health information: the ‘Goals Associated with Health Information Seeking’ (GAINS) questionnaire. Two goal categories (coping focus and regulatory focus) were theoretically derived, based on which four goals (understanding, action planning, hope and reassurance) were classified. The final version of the questionnaire comprised four scales representing the goals, with four items per scale (sixteen items in total). The psychometric properties of the GAINS were analyzed in three independent samples, and the questionnaire was found to be reliable and sufficiently valid as well as suitable for a patient sample. It was concluded that the GAINS makes it possible to evaluate goals of health information seeking (HIS) which are likely to inform the intention building on how to organize the search for health information. The third article describes the final development and a first empirical evaluation of a model of motivational and self-regulatory determinants of an intentionally comprehensive search for health information. Based on the insights and implications of the previous two articles and an additional rigorous theoretical investigation, the model included approach and avoidance motivation, emotion regulation, HIS self-efficacy, problem and emotion focused coping goals and the intention to seek comprehensively (as outcome variable). The model was analyzed via structural equation modeling in a sample of university students. Model fit was good and hypotheses with regard to specific direct and indirect effects were confirmed. Last, the findings of all three articles are synthesized, the final model is presented and discussed with regard to its strengths and weaknesses, and implications for further research are determined.
Institutional and cultural determinants of speed of government responses during COVID-19 pandemic
(2021)
This article examines institutional and cultural determinants of the speed of government responses during the COVID-19 pandemic. We define the speed as the marginal rate of stringency index change. Based on cross-country data, we find that collectivism is associated with higher speed of government response. We also find a moderating role of trust in government, i.e., the association of individualism-collectivism on speed is stronger in countries with higher levels of trust in government. We do not find significant predictive power of democracy, media freedom and power distance on the speed of government responses.
This dissertation develops a rationale of how to use fossil data in solving biogeographical and ecological problems. It is argued that large amounts of fossil data of high quality can be used to document the evolutionary processes (the origin, development, formation and dynamics) of Arealsystems, which can be divided into six stages in North America: the Refugium Stage (before 15,000 years ago: > 15 ka), the Dispersal Stage (from 8,000 to 15,000 years ago: 8.0 - 15 ka), the Developing Stage (from 3,000 to 8,000 years ago: 3.0 - 8.0 ka), the Transitional Stage (from 1,000 to 3,000 years ago: 1 - 3 ka), the Primitive Stage (from 5,00 to 1,000 years ago: 0.5 - 1 ka) and the Human Disturbing Stage (during the last 500 years: < 0.5 ka). The division into these six stages is based on geostatistical analysis of the FAUNMAP database that contains 43,851 fossil records collected from 1860 to 1994 in North America. Fossil data are one of the best materials to test the glacial refugia theory. Glacial refugia represent areas where flora and fauna were preserved during the glacial period, characterized by richness in species and endemic species at present. This means that these (endemic) species should have distributed purely or primarily in these areas during the glacial period. The refugia can therefore be identified by fossil records of that period. If it is not the case, the richness in (endemic) species may not be the result of the glacial refugia. By exploring where mammals lived during the Refugium Stage (> 15 ka), seven refugia in North America can be identified: the California Refugium, the Mexico Refugium, the Florida Refugium, the Appalachia Refugium, the Great Basin Refugium, the Rocky Mountain Refugium and the Great Lake Refugium. The first five refugia coincide well with De Lattin- dispersal centers recognized by biogeographical methods using data on modern distributions. The individuals of a species are not evenly distributed over its Arealsystem. Brown- Hot Spots Model shows that in most cases there is an enormous variation in abundance within an areal of a species: In a census, zero or only a very few individuals occur at most sample locations, but tens or hundreds are found at a few sample sites. Locations where only a few individuals can be sampled in a survey are called "cool spots", and sites where tens or hundreds of individuals can be observed in a survey are called "hot spots". Many areas within the areal are uninhabited, which are called "holes". This model has direct implications for analyzing fossil data: Hot spots have a much higher local population density than cool spots. The chances to discover fossil individuals of a species are much higher in sediments located in a "hot spot" area than in a "cool spot" area. Therefore much higher MNIs (Minimum Number of Individuals) of the species should be found in fossil localities located in the hot spot than in the cool spot area. There are only a few hot spots but many cool spots within an areal of a single hypothetical species, consequently only a few fossil sites can provide with much high MNIs, whereas most other sites can only provide with very low MNIs. This prediction has been proved to be true by analysis of 70 species in FAUMAP containing over 100 fossil records. The temporal and spatial variation in abundance can be reconstructed from the temporospatial distribution of the MNIs of a species over its Arealsystem. Areas with no fossil records from the last thousands of years may be holes, and sites with much higher MNIs may be hot spots, while locations with low MNIs may be cool spots. Although the hot spots of many species can remain unchanged in an area over thousands of years, our study shows that a large shift of hot spots occurred mainly around 1,500-1,000 years ago. There are three directions of movement: from the west side to the east side of the Rockies, from the East of the USA to the east side of the Rockies and from the west side of the Rockies to the Southwest of the USA. The first two directions of shift are called Lewis and Clark- pattern, which can be verified with the observations mad by Lewis and Clark during their expedition in 1805-1806. The historical process of this pattern may well explain the 200-year-old puzzle why big game then abundant on the east side were rare on the west side of the Rocky Mountains noted by modern ecologists and biogeographers. The third direction of shift is called Bayham- pattern. This pattern can be tested by the model of Late Holocene resource intensification first described by Frank E. Bayham. The historical process creating the Bayham pattern will challenge the classic explanation of the Late Holocene resource intensification. An environmental change model has been proposed to account for the shift of hot spots. Implications of glacial refugia and hot spots areas for wildlife management and effective conservation are discussed. Suggestions for paleontologists and zooarchaeologists regarding how to provide more valuable information in their future excavation and research for other disciplines are given.
Income composition can have a significant impact on workers’ well-being, productivity, and career paths. Wages often include a variety of components, such as unconditional bonuses, profit-sharing payments, and incentives based on the individual performance of employees. Each of these may influence employee labour outcomes differently and the worker composition may matter for managers when designing the salary package. Simultaneously, workers’ employment choices and well-being are influenced by income outside the job, such as inheritances and lottery winnings, as well as by external factors like technological change. This dissertation includes five empirical studies that investigate these issues, yielding new insights on the role of monetary gifts, financial incentives, labour market institutions, and technology disruptions in affecting employees’ labour and well-being outcomes.
Background: Psychoeducation positively influences the psychological components of chronic low back pain (CLBP) in conventional treatments. The digitalization of health care has led to the discussion of virtual reality (VR) interventions. However, CLBP treatments in VR have some limitations due to full immersion. In comparison, augmented reality (AR) supplements the real world with virtual elements involving one’s own body sensory perception and can combine conventional and VR approaches.
Objective: The aim of this study was to review the state of research on the treatment of CLBP through psychoeducation, including immersive technologies, and to formulate suggestions for psychoeducation in AR for CLBP.
Methods: A scoping review following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines was performed in August 2024 by using Livivo ZB MED, PubMed, Web of Science, American Psychological Association PsycINFO (PsycArticle), and PsyArXiv Preprints databases. A qualitative content analysis of the included studies was conducted based on 4 deductively extracted categories.
Results: We included 12 studies published between 2019 and 2024 referring to conventional and VR-based psychoeducation for CLBP treatment, but no study referred to AR. In these studies, educational programs were combined with physiotherapy, encompassing content on pain biology, psychological education, coping strategies, and relaxation techniques. The key outcomes were pain intensity, kinesiophobia, pain catastrophizing, degree of disability, quality of life, well-being, self-efficacy, depression, attrition rate, and user experience. Passive, active, and gamified strategies were used to promote intrinsic motivation from a psychological point of view. Regarding user experience from a software development perspective, user friendliness, operational support, and application challenges were recommended.
Background and rationale: Changing working conditions demand adaptation, resulting in higher stress levels in employees. In consequence, decreased productivity, increasing rates of sick leave, and cases of early retirement result in higher direct, indirect, and intangible costs. Aims of the Research Project: The aim of the study was to test the usefulness of a novel translational diagnostic tool, Neuropattern, for early detection, prevention, and personalized treatment of stress-related disorders. The trial was designed as a pilot study with a wait list control group. Materials and Methods: In this study, 70 employees of the Forestry Department Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, were enrolled. Subjects were block-randomized according to the functional group of their career field, and either underwent Neuropattern diagnostics immediately, or after a waiting period of three months. After the diagnostic assessment, their physicians received the Neuropattern Medical Report, including the diagnostic results and treatment recommendations. Participants were informed by the Neuropattern Patient Report, and were eligible to an individualized Neuropattern Online Counseling account. Results: The application of Neuropattern diagnostics significantly improved mental health and health-related behavior, reduced perceived stress, emotional exhaustion, overcommitment and possibly, presenteeism. Additionally, Neuropattern sensitively detected functional changes in stress physiology at an early stage, thus allowing timely personalized interventions to prevent and treat stress pathology. Conclusion: The present study encouraged the application of Neuropattern diagnostics to early intervention in non-clinical populations. However, further research is required to determine the best operating conditions.
The publication of statistical databases is subject to legal regulations, e.g. national statistical offices are only allowed to publish data if the data cannot be attributed to individuals. Achieving this privacy standard requires anonymizing the data prior to publication. However, data anonymization inevitably leads to a loss of information, which should be kept minimal. In this thesis, we analyze the anonymization method SAFE used in the German census in 2011 and we propose a novel integer programming-based anonymization method for nominal data.
In the first part of this thesis, we prove that a fundamental variant of the underlying SAFE optimization problem is NP-hard. This justifies the use of heuristic approaches for large data sets. In the second part, we propose a new anonymization method belonging to microaggregation methods, specifically designed for nominal data. This microaggregation method replaces rows in a microdata set with representative values to achieve k-anonymity, ensuring each data row is identical to at least k − 1 other rows. In addition to the overall dissimilarities of the data rows, the method accounts for errors in resulting frequency tables, which are of high interest for nominal data in practice. The method employs a typical two-step structure: initially partitioning the data set into clusters and subsequently replacing all cluster elements with representative values to achieve k-anonymity. For the partitioning step, we propose a column generation scheme followed by a heuristic to obtain an integer solution, which is based on the dual information. For the aggregation step, we present a mixed-integer problem formulation to find cluster representatives. To this end, we take errors in a subset of frequency tables into account. Furthermore, we show a reformulation of the problem to a minimum edge-weighted maximal clique problem in a multipartite graph, which allows for a different perspective on the problem. Moreover, we formulate a mixed-integer program, which combines the partitioning and the aggregation step and aims to minimize the sum of chi-squared errors in frequency tables.
Finally, an experimental study comparing the methods covered or developed in this work shows particularly strong results for the proposed method with respect to relative criteria, while SAFE shows its strength with respect to the maximum absolute error in frequency tables. We conclude that the inclusion of integer programming in the context of data anonymization is a promising direction to reduce the inevitable information loss inherent in anonymization, particularly for nominal data.
In the last chapter of “De coniecturis”, Cusanus exhorts his friend, Cardinal Giuli ano Cesarini, to get to know himself. This classical philosophical topic is revisited by Cusanus here in an original manner. On the one hand, Cusanus’ perspective reveals the strong influence of Proclus, which deserves to be highlighted. On the other, unlike Proclus, Cusanus asserts that self-knowledge is explicitly linked to the topic of the human being as created ad imaginem and that of the world as the sphere of contraction. Cusanus bases both subjective matters on the triune princi ple. According to him, the Divine Trinity is the exemplar that cannot be reached by an image, and the effort to reach the Trinity constitutes the basic requirement for the conjectural construction of the self. Furthermore, the fact that this under standing of the Trinity implies a distinction in itself makes the Trinity the princi ple of all difference or otherness in plurality. Cusanus concludes that the image can only be constructed relationally, that it is not possible to attain God without a fundamental knowledge of the self as an image, and that no one knows his own self without knowing others at the same time.
Acute social and physical stress interact to influence social behavior: the role of social anxiety
(2018)
Stress is proven to have detrimental effects on physical and mental health. Due to different tasks and study designs, the direct consequences of acute stress have been found to be wide-reaching: while some studies report prosocial effects, others report increases in antisocial behavior, still others report no effect. To control for specific effects of different stressors and to consider the role of social anxiety in stress-related social behavior, we investigated the effects of social versus physical stress on behavior in male participants possessing different levels of social anxiety. In a randomized, controlled two by two design we investigated the impact of social and physical stress on behavior in healthy young men. We found significant influences on various subjective increases in stress by physical and social stress, but no interaction effect. Cortisol was significantly increased by physical stress, and the heart rate was modulated by physical and social stress as well as their combination. Social anxiety modulated the subjective stress response but not the cortisol or heart rate response. With respect to behavior, our results show that social and physical stress interacted to modulate trust, trustworthiness, and sharing. While social stress and physical stress alone reduced prosocial behavior, a combination of the two stressor modalities could restore prosociality. Social stress alone reduced nonsocial risk behavior regardless of physical stress. Social anxiety was associated with higher subjective stress responses and higher levels of trust. As a consequence, future studies will need to investigate further various stressors and clarify their effects on social behavior in health and social anxiety disorders.
During and after application, pesticides enter the atmosphere by volatilisation and by wind erosion of particles on which the pesticide is sorbed. Measurements at application sites revealed that sometimes more than half of the amount applied is lost into the atmosphere within a few days. The atmosphere is an important part of the hydrologic cycle that can transport pesticides from their point of application and deposit them into aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems far from their point of use. In the region of Trier pesticides are widely used. In order to protect crops from pests and increase crop yields in the viniculture, six to eight pesticide applications take place between May and August. The impact that these applications have on the environmental pollution of the region is not yet well understood. The present study was developed to characterize the atmospheric presence, temporal patterns, transport and deposition of a variety of pesticides in the atmosphere of the area of Trier. To this purpose, rain samples were weekly collected at eight sites during the growing seasons 2000, 2001 and 2002, and air samples (gas and particle phases) were collected during the growing season 2002. Multiresidue analysis methods were developed to determine multiple classes of pesticides in rain water, particle- and gas-phase samples. Altogether 24 active ingredients and 3 metabolites were chosen as representative substances, focussing mainly on fungicides. Twenty-four of the 27 measured pesticides were detected in the rain samples; seventeen pesticides were detected in the air samples. The most frequently detected pesticides and at the highest concentrations, both in rain and air, were compounds belonging to the class of fungicides. The insecticide methyl parathion was also detected in several rain samples as well as two substances that are banned in Germany, such as the herbicides atrazine and simazine. Concentration levels varied during the growing season with the highest concentrations being measured in the late spring and summer months, coinciding with application times and warmer months. Concentration levels measured in the rain samples were, generally, in the order of rnng l-1. Though average concentrations for single substances were less than 100 ng l-1, total concentrations were considerable and in some instances well above the EU drinking water quality standard of 500 ng l-1 for total pesticides. Compared to the amounts applied for pest control, the amounts deposited by rain resulted between 0,004% and 0,10% of the maximum application rates. These low pesticide inputs from precipitation to surface-water bodies is not of concern in vinicultural areas where the impact of other sources, such as superficial runoff inputs from the treated areas and cleaning of field crop sprayers, is more important. However, the potential impacts of these aerial pesticide inputs to non-target sites, such as organic crops, and sensitive ecosystems are as yet not known. Concentration levels in the air samples were in the order of ng m-3 at sites close to the fields were pesticides were applied, while lower values, in the order of pg m-3, were detected at the site located further away from fields where applications were performed. The measured air concentration levels found in this study do not represent a concern for human health in terms of acute risk. Inhalation toxicity studies have shown that an acute potential risk only arises at air concentrations in the range of g m-3. Finally, it must be kept in mind that only a small number of chemicals that were applied in the area were analysed for in this study. In order to gain a better evaluation of the local atmospheric load of pesticides, a wider spectrum of applied substances (including metabolites) needs to be investigated.
My study attempts to illustrate the generic development of the family novel in the second half of the twentieth century. At its beginning stands a preliminary classification of the various types of family fiction as they are referred to in secondary literature, which is then followed by a definition of the family novel proper. With its microscopic approach to novels featuring the American family and its (post-)postmodern variations, my study marks a first step into as yet uncharted territory. Assuming that the family novel has emerged as a result of the twentieth century's emphasis on the modern nuclear family, focuses on the family as a gestalt rather than on a single protagonist, and is concerned with issues of social and cultural significance, this study examines how the family, its forms and its conflicts are functionalized for the respective author's cultural critique. From post-war to post-millennium, family novelists have sketched the American family in various precarious conditions, and their texts are critical assessments of contemporary socioeconomic and cultural conditions. My close reading of John Cheever's The Wapshot Chronicle (1957), Don DeLillo's White Noise (1985) and Jonathan Franzen's The Corrections (2001) intends to reveal, shared values as well as significant differences on a formal as well as on a thematic level. As my examination of the respective novel shows, authors react to social and cultural change with new functionalizations of the family in fiction. Unlike the general assumption of literary crticism, family novels do not approach new cultural developments in a conventional or even traditionalist manner. A comparison of White Noise with The Wapshot Chronicle demonstrates that DeLillo's postmodern family novel transcends the rather nostalgic perspective of Cheever's 1950s work. Similarly, Jonathan Franzen's fin de millennium family novel The Corrections holds a post-postmodern position, which can be aptly described by Franzen's own term 'tragical realism'. The significant changes and developments of the family novel in the past five decades demonstrate the need for a continuous reassessment of the genre, and in this respect, my study is merely a beginning.
Objective: Only 20-25% of the variance for the two to four-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer among women with family histories of the disease can be explained by known gene mutations. Other factors must exist. Here, a familial breast cancer model is proposed in which overestimation of risk, general distress, and cancer-specific distress constitute the type of background stress sufficient to increase unrelated acute stress reactivity in women at familial risk for breast cancer. Furthermore, these stress reactions are thought to be associated with central adiposity, an independent well-established risk factor for breast cancer. Hence, stress through its hormonal correlates and possible associations with central adiposity may play a crucial role in the etiology of breast cancer in women at familial risk for the disease. Methods: Participants were 215 healthy working women with first-degree relatives diagnosed before (high familial risk) or after age 50 (low familial risk), or without breast cancer in first-degree relatives (no familial risk). Participants completed self-report measures of perceived lifetime breast cancer risk, intrusive thoughts and avoidance about breast cancer (Impact of Event Scale), negative affect (Profile of Mood States), and general distress (Brief Symptom Inventory). Anthropometric measurements were taken. Urine samples during work, home, and sleep were collected for assessment of cortisol responses in the naturalistic setting where work was conceptualized as the stressful time of the day. Results: A series of analyses indicated a gradient increase of cortisol levels in response to the work environment from no, low, to high familial risk of breast cancer. When adding breast cancer intrusions to the model with familial risk status predicting work cortisol levels, significant intrusion effects emerged rendering the familial risk group non-significant. However, due to a lack of association between intrusions and cortisol in the low and high familial risk group separately, as well as a significant difference between low and high familial risk on intrusions, but not on work cortisol levels, full mediation of familial risk group effects on work cortisol by intrusions could not be established. A separate analysis indicated increased levels of central but not general adiposity in women at high familial risk of breast cancer compared to the low and no risk groups. There were no significant associations between central adiposity and cortisol excretion. Conclusion: A hyperactive hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis with a more pronounced excretion of its end product cortisol, as well as elevated levels of central but not overall adiposity in women at high familial risk for breast cancer may indicate an increased health risk which expands beyond that of increased breast cancer risk for these women.
The startle response in psychophysiological research: modulating effects of contextual parameters
(2014)
Startle reactions are fast, reflexive, and defensive responses which protect the body from injury in the face of imminent danger. The underlying reflex is basic and can be found in many species. Even though it consists of only a few synapses located in the brain stem, the startle reflex offers a valuable research method for human affective, cognitive, and psychological research. This is because of moderating effects of higher mental processes such as attention and emotion on the response magnitude: affective foreground stimulation and directed attention are validated paradigms in startle-related research. This work presents findings from three independent research studies that deal with (1) the application of the established "affective modulation of startle"-paradigm to the novel setting of attractiveness and human mating preferences, (2) the question of how different components of the startle response are affected by a physiological stressor and (3) how startle stimuli affect visual attention towards emotional stimuli. While the first two studies treat the startle response as a dependent variable by measuring its response magnitude, the third study uses startle stimuli as an experimental manipulation and investigates its potential effects on a behavioural measure. The first chapter of this thesis describes the basic mechanisms of the startle response as well as the body of research that sets the foundation of startle research in psychophysiology. It provides the rationale for the presented studies, and offers a short summary of the obtained results. Chapter two to four represent primary research articles that are published or in press. At the beginning of each chapter the contribution of all authors is explained. The references for all chapters are listed at the end of this thesis. The overall scope of this thesis is to show how the human startle response is modulated by a variety of factors, such as the attractiveness of a potential mating partner or the exposure to a stressor. In conclusion, the magnitude of the startle response can serve as a measure for such psychological states and processes. Beyond the involuntary, physiological startle reflex, startle stimuli also affect intentional behavioural responses, which we could demonstrate for eye movements in a visual attention paradigm.
There is a wide range of methodologies for policy evaluation and socio-economic impact assessment. A fundamental distinction can be made between micro and macro approaches. In contrast to micro models, which focus on the micro-unit, macro models are used to analyze aggregate variables. The ability of microsimulation models to capture interactions occurring at the micro-level makes them particularly suitable for modeling complex real-world phenomena. The inclusion of a behavioral component into microsimulation models provides a framework for assessing the behavioral effects of policy changes.
The labor market is a primary area of interest for both economists and policy makers. The projection of labor-related variables is particularly important for assessing economic and social development needs, as it provides insight into the potential trajectory of these variables and can be used to design effective policy responses. As a result, the analysis of labor market behavior is a primary area of application for behavioral microsimulation models. Behavioral microsimulation models allow for the study of second-round effects, including changes in hours worked and participation rates resulting from policy reforms. It is important to note, however, that most microsimulation models do not consider the demand side of the labor market.
The combination of micro and macro models offers a possible solution as it constitutes a promising way to integrate the strengths of both models. Of particular relevance is the combination of microsimulation models with general equilibrium models, especially computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. CGE models are classified as structural macroeconomic models, which are defined by their basis in economic theory. Another important category of macroeconomic models are time series models. This thesis examines the potential for linking micro and macro models. The different types of microsimulation models are presented, with special emphasis on discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models. The concept of behavioral microsimulation is introduced to demonstrate the integration of a behavioral element into microsimulation models. For this reason, the concept of utility is introduced and the random utility approach is described in detail. In addition, a brief overview of macro models is given with a focus on general equilibrium models and time series models. Various approaches for linking micro and macro models, which can either be categorized as sequential approaches or integrated approaches, are presented. Furthermore, the concept of link variables is introduced, which play a central role in combining both models. The focus is on the most complex sequential approach, i.e., the bi-directional linking of behavioral microsimulation models with general equilibrium macro models.
Der digitale Fortschritt der vergangenen Jahrzehnte beruht zu einem großen Teil auf der Innovationskraft junger aufstrebender Unternehmen. Während diese Unternehmen auf der einen Seite ihr hohes Maß an Innovativität eint, entsteht für diese zeitgleich auch ein hoher Bedarf an finanziellen Mitteln, um ihre geplanten Innovations- und Wachstumsziele auch in die Tat umsetzen zu können. Da diese Unternehmen häufig nur wenige bis keine Unternehmenswerte, Umsätze oder auch Profitabilität vorweisen können, gestaltet sich die Aufnahme von externem Kapital häufig schwierig bis unmöglich. Aus diesem Umstand entstand in der Mitte des zwanzigsten Jahrhunderts das Geschäftsmodell der Risikofinanzierung, des sogenannten „Venture Capitals“. Dabei investieren Risikokapitalgeber in aussichtsreiche junge Unternehmen, unterstützen diese in ihrem Wachstum und verkaufen nach einer festgelegten Dauer ihre Unternehmensanteile, im Idealfall zu einem Vielfachen ihres ursprünglichen Wertes. Zahlreiche junge Unternehmen bewerben sich um Investitionen dieser Risikokapitalgeber, doch nur eine sehr geringe Zahl erhält diese auch. Um die aussichtsreichsten Unternehmen zu identifizieren, sichten die Investoren die Bewerbungen anhand verschiedener Kriterien, wodurch bereits im ersten Schritt der Bewerbungsphase zahlreiche Unternehmen aus dem Kreis potenzieller Investmentobjekte ausscheiden. Die bisherige Forschung diskutiert, welche Kriterien Investoren zu einer Investition bewegen. Daran anschließend verfolgt diese Dissertation das Ziel, ein tiefergehendes Verständnis darüber zu erlangen, welche Faktoren die Entscheidungsfindung der Investoren beeinflussen. Dabei wird vor allem auch untersucht, wie sich persönliche Faktoren der Investoren, sowie auch der Unternehmensgründer, auf die Investitionsentscheidung auswirken. Ergänzt werden diese Untersuchungen zudem durch die Analyse der Wirkung des digitalen Auftretens von Unternehmensgründern auf die Entscheidungsfindung von Risikokapitalgebern. Des Weiteren verfolgt diese Dissertation als zweites Ziel einen Erkenntnisgewinn über die Auswirkungen einer erfolgreichen Investition auf den Unternehmensgründer. Insgesamt umfasst diese Dissertation vier Studien, die im Folgenden näher beschrieben werden.
In Kapitel 2 wird untersucht, inwiefern sich bestimmte Humankapitaleigenschaften des Investors auf dessen Entscheidungsverhalten auswirken. Mithilfe vorangegangener Interviews und Literaturrecherchen wurden insgesamt sieben Kriterien identifiziert, die Risikokapitalinvestoren in ihrer Entscheidungsfindung nutzen. Daraufhin nahmen 229 Investoren an einem Conjoint Experiment teil, mithilfe dessen gezeigt werden konnte, wie wichtig die jeweiligen Kriterien im Rahmen der Entscheidung sind. Von besonderem Interesse ist dabei, wie sich die Wichtigkeit der Kriterien in Abhängigkeit der Humankapitaleigenschaften der Investoren unterscheiden. Dabei kann gezeigt werden, dass sich die Wichtigkeit der Kriterien je nach Bildungshintergrund und Erfahrung der Investoren unterscheidet. So legen beispielsweise Investoren mit einem höheren Bildungsabschluss und Investoren mit unternehmerischer Erfahrung deutlich mehr Wert auf die internationale Skalierbarkeit der Unternehmen. Zudem unterscheidet sich die Wichtigkeit der Kriterien auch in Abhängigkeit der fachlichen Ausbildung. So legen etwa Investoren mit einer fachlichen Ausbildung in Naturwissenschaften einen deutlich stärkeren Fokus auf den Mehrwert des Produktes beziehungsweise der Dienstleistung. Zudem kann gezeigt werden, dass Investoren mit mehr Investitionserfahrung die Erfahrung des Managementteams wesentlich wichtiger einschätzen als Investoren mit geringerer Investitionserfahrung. Diese Ergebnisse ermöglichen es Unternehmensgründern ihre Bewerbungen um eine Risikokapitalfinanzierung zielgenauer auszurichten, etwa durch eine Analyse des beruflichen Hintergrunds der potentiellen Investoren und eine damit einhergehende Anpassung der Bewerbungsunterlagen, zum Beispiel durch eine stärkere Schwerpunktsetzung besonders relevanter Kriterien.
Die in Kapitel 3 vorgestellte Studie bedient sich der Daten des gleichen Conjoint Experiments aus Kapitel 2, legt hierbei allerdings einen Fokus auf den Unterschied zwischen Investoren aus den USA und Investoren aus Kontinentaleuropa. Dazu wurden Subsamples kreiert, in denen 128 Experimentteilnehmer in den USA angesiedelt sind und 302 in Kontinentaleuropa. Die Analyse der Daten zeigt, dass US-amerikanische Investoren, im Vergleich zu Investoren in Kontinentaleuropa, einen signifikant stärkeren Fokus auf das Umsatzwachstum der Unternehmen legen. Zudem legen kontinentaleuropäische Investoren einen deutlich stärkeren Fokus auf die internationale Skalierbarkeit der Unternehmen. Um die Ergebnisse der Analyse besser interpretieren zu können, wurden diese im Anschluss mit vier amerikanischen und sieben europäischen Investoren diskutiert. Dabei bestätigen die europäischen Investoren die Wichtigkeit der hohen internationalen Skalierbarkeit aufgrund der teilweise geringen Größe europäischer Länder und dem damit zusammenhängenden Zwang, schnell international skalieren zu können, um so zufriedenstellende Wachstumsraten zu erreichen. Des Weiteren wurde der vergleichsweise geringere Fokus auf das Umsatzwachstum in Europa mit fehlenden Mitteln für eine schnelle Expansion begründet. Gleichzeitig wird der starke Fokus der US-amerikanischen Investoren auf Umsatzwachstum mit der höheren Tendenz zu einem Börsengang in den USA begründet, bei dem hohe Umsätze als Werttreiber dienen. Die Ergebnisse dieses Kapitels versetzen Unternehmensgründer in die Lage, ihre Bewerbung stärker an die wichtigsten Kriterien der potenziellen Investoren auszurichten, um so die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer erfolgreichen Investitionsentscheidung zu erhöhen. Des Weiteren bieten die Ergebnisse des Kapitels Investoren, die sich an grenzüberschreitenden syndizierten Investitionen beteiligen, die Möglichkeit, die Präferenzen der anderen Investoren besser zu verstehen und die Investitionskriterien besser auf potenzielle Partner abzustimmen.
Kapitel 4 untersucht ob bestimmte Charaktereigenschaften des sogenannten Schumpeterschen Entrepreneurs einen Einfluss auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines zweiten Risikokapitalinvestments haben. Dazu wurden von Gründern auf Twitter gepostete Nachrichten sowie Information von Investitionsrunden genutzt, die auf der Plattform Crunchbase zur Verfügung stehen. Insgesamt wurden mithilfe einer Textanalysesoftware mehr als zwei Millionen Tweets von 3313 Gründern analysiert. Die Ergebnisse der Studie deuten an, dass einige Eigenschaften, die typisch für Schumpetersche Gründer sind, die Chancen für eine weitere Investition erhöhen, während andere keine oder negative Auswirkungen haben. So erhöhen Gründer, die auf Twitter einen starken Optimismus sowie ihre unternehmerische Vision zur Schau stellen die Chancen auf eine zweite Risikokapitalfinanzierung, gleichzeitig werden diese aber durch ein zu starkes Streben nach Erfolg reduziert. Diese Ergebnisse haben eine hohe praktische Relevanz für Unternehmensgründer, die sich auf der Suche nach Risikokapital befinden. Diese können dadurch ihr virtuelles Auftreten („digital identity“) zielgerichteter steuern, um so die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer weiteren Investition zu erhöhen.
Abschließend wird in Kapitel 5 untersucht, wie sich die digitale Identität der Gründer verändert, nachdem diese eine erfolgreiche Risikokapitalinvestition erhalten haben. Dazu wurden sowohl Twitter-Daten als auch Crunchbase-Daten genutzt, die im Rahmen der Erstellung der Studie in Kapitel 4 erhoben wurden. Mithilfe von Textanalyse und Paneldatenregressionen wurden die Tweets von 2094 Gründern vor und nach Erhalt der Investition untersucht. Dabei kann gezeigt werden, dass der Erhalt einer Risikokapitalinvestition das Selbstvertrauen, die positiven Emotionen, die Professionalisierung und die Führungsqualitäten der Gründer erhöhen. Gleichzeitig verringert sich allerdings die Authentizität der von den Gründern verfassten Nachrichten. Durch die Verwendung von Interaktionseffekten kann zudem gezeigt werden, dass die Steigerung des Selbstvertrauens positiv durch die Reputation des Investors moderiert wird, während die Höhe der Investition die Authentizität negativ moderiert. Investoren haben durch diese Erkenntnisse die Möglichkeit, den Weiterentwicklungsprozess der Gründer nach einer erfolgreichen Investition besser nachvollziehen zu können, wodurch sie in die Lage versetzt werden, die Aktivitäten ihrer Gründer auf Social Media Plattformen besser zu kontrollieren und im Bedarfsfall bei ihrer Anpassung zu unterstützen.
Die in den Kapiteln 2 bis 5 vorgestellten Studien dieser Dissertation tragen damit zu einem besseren Verständnis der Entscheidungsfindung im Venture Capital Prozess bei. Der bisherige Stand der Forschung wird um Erkenntnisse erweitert, die sowohl den Einfluss der Eigenschaften der Investoren als auch der Gründer betreffen. Zudem wird auch gezeigt, wie sich die Investition auf den Gründer selbst auswirken kann. Die Implikationen der Ergebnisse, sowie Limitationen und Möglichkeiten künftiger Forschung werden in Kapitel 6 näher beschrieben. Da die in dieser Dissertation verwendeten Methoden und Daten erst seit wenigen Jahren im Kontext der Venture Capital Forschung genutzt werden, beziehungsweise überhaupt verfügbar sind, bietet sie sich als eine Grundlage für weitere Forschung an.
Stress has been considered one of the most relevant factors promoting aggressive behavior. Animal and human pharmacological studies revealed the stress hormones corticosterone in rodents and cortisol in humans to constitute a particularly important neuroendocrine determinate in facilitating aggression and beyond that, assumedly in its continuation and escalation. Moreover, cortisol-induced alterations of social information processing, as well as of cognitive control processes, have been hypothesized as possible influencing factors in the stress-aggression link. So far, the immediate impact of a preceding stressor and thereby stress-induced rise of cortisol on aggressive behavior as well as higher-order cognitive control processes and social information processing in this context have gone mostly unheeded. The present thesis aimed to extend the hitherto findings of stress and aggression in this regard. For this purpose two psychophysiological studies with healthy adults were carried out, both using the socially evaluated-cold pressor test as an acute stress induction. Additionally to behavioral data and subjective reports, event related potentials were measured and acute levels of salivary cortisol were collected on the basis of which stressed participants were divided into cortisol-responders and "nonresponders. Study 1 examined the impact of acute stress-induced cortisol increase on inhibitory control and its neural correlates. 41 male participants were randomly assigned to the stress procedure or to a non-stressful control condition. Beforehand and afterwards, participants performed a Go Nogo task with visual letters to measure response inhibition. The effect of acute stress-induced cortisol increase on covert and overt aggressive behavior and on the processing of provoking stimuli within the aggressive encounter was investigated in study 2. Moreover, this experiment examined the combined impact of stress and aggression on ensuing affective information processing. 71 male and female participants were either exposed to the stress or to the control condition. Following this, half of each group received high or low levels of provocation during the Taylor Aggression Paradigm. At the end of the experiment, a passive viewing paradigm with affective pictures depicting positive, negative, or aggressive scenes with either humans or objects was realized. The results revealed that men were not affected by a stress-induced rise in cortisol on a behavioral level, showing neither impaired response inhibition nor enhanced aggressive behavior. In contrast, women showed enhanced overt and covert aggressive behavior under a surge of endogenous cortisol, confirming previous results, albeit only in case of high provocation and only up to the level of the control group. Unlike this rather moderate impact on behavior, cortisol showed a distinct impact on neural correlates of information processing throughout inhibitory control, aggression-eliciting stimuli, and emotional pictures for both men and women. At this, stress-induced increase of cortisol resulted in enhanced N2 amplitudes to Go stimuli, whereas P2 amplitudes to both and N2 to Nogo amplitudes retained unchanged, indicating an overcorrection and caution of the response activation in favor of successful inhibitory control. The processing of aggression-eliciting stimuli during the aggressive encounter was complexly altered by stress differently for women and men. Under increased cortisol levels, the frontal or parietal P3 amplitude patterns were either diminished or reversed in the case of high provocation compared to the control group and to cortisol-nonresponders, indicating a desensitization towards aggression-eliciting stimuli in males, but a more elaborate processing of those in women. Moreover, stress-induced cortisol and provocation jointly altered subsequent affective information processing at early as well as later stages of the information processing stream. Again, increased levels of cortisol led opposite directed amplitudes in the case of high provocation relative to the control group and cortisol-nonresponders, with enhanced N2 amplitudes in men and reduced P3 and LPP amplitudes in men and women for all affective pictures, suggesting initially enhanced emotional reactivity in men, but ensuing reduced motivational attention and enhanced emotion regulation in both, men and women. As a result, these present findings confirm the relevance of HPA activity in the elicitation and persistence of human aggressive behavior. Moreover, they reveal the significance of compensatory and emotion regulatory strategies and mechanisms in response to stress and provocation, indorsing the relevance of social information and cognitive control processes. Still, more research is needed to clarify the conditions which lead to the facilitation of aggression and by which compensatory mechanisms this is prevented.
In splitting theory of locally convex spaces we investigate evaluable characterizations of the pairs (E, X) of locally convex spaces such that each exact sequence 0 -> X -> G -> E -> 0 of locally convex spaces splits, i.e. either X -> G has a continuous linear left inverse or G -> E has a continuous linear right inverse. In the thesis at hand we deal with splitting of short exact sequences of so-called PLH spaces, which are defined as projective limits of strongly reduced spectra of strong duals of Fréchet-Hilbert spaces. This class of locally convex spaces contains most of the spaces of interest for application in the theory of partial differential operators as the space of Schwartz distributions , the space of real analytic functions and various spaces of ultradifferentiable functions and ultradistributions. It also contains non-Schwartz spaces as B(2,k,loc)(Ω) and spaces of smooth and square integrable functions that are not covered by the current theory for PLS spaces. We prove a complete characterizations of the above problem in the case of X being a PLH space and E either being a Fréchet-Hilbert space or a strong dual of one by conditions of type (T ). To this end, we establish the full homological toolbox of Yoneda Ext functors in exact categories for the category of PLH spaces including the long exact sequence, which in particular involves a thorough discussion of the proper concept of exactness. Furthermore, we exhibit the connection to the parameter dependence problem via the Hilbert tensor product for hilbertizable locally convex spaces. We show that the Hilbert tensor product of two PLH spaces is again a PLH space which in particular proves the positive answer to Grothendieck- problème des topologies. In addition to that we give a complete characterization of the vanishing of the first derivative of the functor proj for tensorized PLH spectra if one of the PLH spaces E and X meets some nuclearity assumptions. To apply our results to concrete cases we establish sufficient conditions of (DN)-(Ω) type and apply them to the parameter dependence problem for partial differential operators with constant coefficients on B(2,k,loc)(Ω) spaces as well as to the smooth and square integrable parameter dependence problem. Concluding we give a complete solution of all the problems under consideration for PLH spaces of Köthe type.
Chapter 2: Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study examines the relation-ship between immigrant residential segregation and immigrants" satisfaction with the neighbor-hood. The estimates show that immigrants living in segregated areas are less satisfied with the neighborhood. This is consistent with the hypothesis that housing discrimination rather than self-selection plays an important role in immigrant residential segregation. Our result holds true even when controlling for other influences such as household income and quality of the dwelling. It also holds true in fixed effects estimates that account for unobserved time-invariant influences. Chapter 3: Using survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study shows that immigrants living in segregated residential areas are more likely to report discrimination because of their ethnic background. This applies to both segregated areas where most neighbors are immigrants from the same country of origin as the surveyed person and segregated areas where most neighbors are immigrants from other countries of origin. The results suggest that housing discrimination rather than self-selection plays an important role in immigrant residential segregation. Chapter 4: Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and administrative data from 1996 to 2009, I investigate the question whether or not right-wing extremism of German residents is affected by the ethnic concentration of foreigners living in the same residential area. My results show a positive but insignificant relationship between ethnic concentration at the county level and the probability of extreme right-wing voting behavior for West Germany. However, due to potential endogeneity issues, I additionally instrument the share of foreigners in a county with the share of foreigners in each federal state (following an approach of Dustmann/Preston 2001). I find evidence for the interethnic contact theory, predicting a negative relationship between foreign-ers" share and right-wing voting. Moreover, I analyze the moderating role of education and the influence of cultural traits on this relationship. Chapter 5: Using data from the Socio-Economic Panel from 1998 to 2009 and administrative data on regional ethnic diversity, I show that ethnic diversity inhibits significantly people- political interest and participation in political organizations in West Germany. People seem to isolate themselves from political participation if exposed to more ethnic diversity which is particularly relevant with respect to the ongoing integration process of the European Union and the increasing transfer of legislative power from the national to European level. The results are robust if an instrumental variable strategy suggested by Dustmann and Preston (2001) is used to take into account that ethnic diversity measured on a local spatial level could be endogenous due to residential sorting. Interestingly, participation in non-political organizations is positively affected by ethnic diversity if selection bias is corrected for.