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Numerous RCTs demonstrate that cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression is effective. However, these findings are not necessarily representative of CBT under routine care conditions. Routine care studies are not usually subjected to comparable standardizations, e.g. often therapists may not follow treatment manuals and patients are less homogeneous with regard to their diagnoses and sociodemographic variables. Results on the transferability of findings from clinical trials to routine care are sparse and point in different directions. As RCT samples are selective due to a stringent application of inclusion/exclusion criteria, comparisons between routine care and clinical trials must be based on a consistent analytic strategy. The present work demonstrates the merits of propensity score matching (PSM), which offers solutions to reduce bias by balancing two samples based on a range of pretreatment differences. The objective of this dissertation is the investigation of the transferability of findings from RCTs to routine care settings.
Avoiding aerial microfibre contamination of environmental samples is essential for reliable analyses when it comes to the detection of ubiquitous microplastics. Almost all laboratories have contamination problems which are largely unavoidable without investments in clean-air devices. Therefore, our study supplies an approach to assess background microfibre contamination of samples in the laboratory under particle-free air conditions. We tested aerial contamination of samples indoor, in a mobile laboratory, within a laboratory fume hood and on a clean bench with particles filtration during the examining process of a fish. The used clean bench reduced aerial microfibre contamination in our laboratory by 96.5%. This highlights the value of suitable clean-air devices for valid microplastic pollution data. Our results indicate, that pollution levels by microfibres have been overestimated and actual pollution levels may be many times lower. Accordingly, such clean-air devices are recommended for microplastic laboratory applications in future research work to significantly lower error rates.
Global human population growth is associated with many problems, such asrnfood and water provision, political conflicts, spread of diseases, and environmental destruction. The mitigation of these problems is mirrored in several global conventions and programs, some of which, however, are conflicting. Here, we discuss the conflicts between biodiversity conservation and disease eradication. Numerous health programs aim at eradicating pathogens, and many focus on the eradication of vectors, such as mosquitos or other parasites. As a case study, we focus on the "Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign," which aims at eradicating a pathogen (Trypanosoma) as well as its vector, the entire group of tsetse flies (Glossinidae). As the distribution of tsetse flies largely overlaps with the African hotspots of freshwater biodiversity, we argue for a strong consideration of environmental issues when applying vector control measures, especially the aerial applications of insecticides.rnFurthermore, we want to stimulate discussions on the value of speciesrnand whether full eradication of a pathogen or vector is justified at all. Finally, we call for a stronger harmonization of international conventions. Proper environmental impact assessments need to be conducted before control or eradication programs are carried out to minimize negative effects on biodiversity.
Flexibility and spatial mobility of labour are central characteristics of modern societies which contribute not only to higher overall economic growth but also to a reduction of interregional employment disparities. For these reasons, there is the political will in many countries to expand labour market areas, resulting especially in an overall increase in commuting. The picture of the various, unintended long-term consequences of commuting on individuals is, however, relatively unclear. Therefore, in recent years, the journey to work has gained high attention especially in the study of health and well-being. Empirical analyses based on longitudinal as well as European data on how commuting may affect health and well-being are nevertheless rare. The principle aim of this thesis is, thus, to address this question with regard to Germany using data from the Socio-Economic Panel. Chapter 2 empirically investigates the causal impact of commuting on absence from work due to sickness-related reasons. Whereas an exogenous change in commuting distance does not affect the number of absence days of those individuals who commute short distances to work, it increases the number of absence days of those employees who commute middle (25 " 49 kilometres) or long distances (50 kilometres and more). Moreover, our results highlight that commuting may deteriorate an individual- health. However, this effect is not sufficient to explain the observed impact of commuting on absence from work. Chapter 3 explores the relationship between commuting distance and height-adjusted weight and sheds some light on the mechanisms through which commuting might affect individual body weight. We find no evidence that commuting leads to excess weight. Compensating health behaviour of commuters, especially healthy dietary habits, could explain the non-relationship of commuting and height-adjusted weight. In Chapter 4, a multivariate probit approach is used to estimate recursive systems of equations for commuting and health-related behaviours. Controlling for potential endogeneity of commuting, the results show that long distance commutes significantly decrease the propensity to engage in health-related activities. Furthermore, unobservable individual heterogeneity can influence both the decision to commute and healthy lifestyle choices. Chapter 5 investigates the relationship between commuting and several cognitive and affective components of subjective well-being. The results suggest that commuting is related to lower levels of satisfaction with family life and leisure time which can largely be ascribed to changes in daily time use patterns, influenced by the work commute.
In recent decades, the Arctic has been undergoing a wide range of fast environmental changes. The sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean not only reacts rapidly to these changes, but also influences and alters the physical properties of the atmospheric boundary layer and the underlying ocean on various scales. In that regard, polynyas, i.e. regions of open water and thin ice within thernclosed pack ice, play a key role as being regions of enhanced atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions and extensive new ice formation during winter. A precise long-term monitoring and increased efforts to employ long-term and high-resolution satellite data is therefore of high interest for the polar scientific community. The retrieval of thin-ice thickness (TIT) fields from thermal infrared satellite data and atmospheric reanalysis, utilizing a one-dimensional energy balance model, allows for the estimation of the heat loss to the atmosphere and hence, ice-production rates. However, an extended application of this approach is inherently connected with severe challenges that originate predominantly from the disturbing influence of clouds and necessary simplifications in the model set-up, which all need to be carefully considered and compensated for. The presented thesis addresses these challenges and demonstrates the applicability of thermal infrared TIT distributions for a long-term polynya monitoring, as well as an accurate estimation of ice production in Arctic polynyas at a relatively high spatial resolution. Being written in a cumulative style, the thesis is subdivided into three parts that show the consequent evolution and improvement of the TIT retrieval, based on two regional studies (Storfjorden and North Water (NOW) polynya) and a final large-scale, pan-Arctic study. The first study on the Storfjorden polynya, situated in the Svalbard archipelago, represents the first long-term investigation on spatial and temporal polynya characteristics that is solely based on daily TIT fields derived from MODIS thermal infrared satellite data and ECMWF ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data. Typical quantities such as polynya area (POLA), the TIT distribution, frequencies of polynya events as well as the total ice production are derived and compared to previous remote sensing and modeling studies. The study includes a first basic approach that aims for a compensation of cloud-induced gaps in daily TIT composites. This coverage-correction (CC) is a mathematically simple upscaling procedure that depends solely on the daily percentage of available MODIS coverage and yields daily POLA with an error-margin of 5 to 6 %. The NOW polynya in northern Baffin Bay is the main focus region of the second study, which follows two main goals. First, a new statistics-based cloud interpolation scheme (Spatial Feature Reconstruction - SFR) as well as additional cloud-screening procedures are successfully adapted and implemented in the TIT retrieval for usage in Arctic polynya regions. For a 13-yr period, results on polynya characteristics are compared to the CC approach. Furthermore, an investigation on highly variable ice-bridge dynamics in Nares Strait is presented. Second, an analysis of decadal changes of the NOW polynya is carried out, as the additional use of a suite of passive microwave sensors leads to an extended record of 37 consecutive winter seasons, thereby enabling detailed inter-sensor comparisons. In the final study, the SFR-interpolated daily TIT composites are used to infer spatial and temporal characteristics of 17 circumpolar polynya regions in the Arctic for 2002/2003 to 2014/2015. All polynya regions combined cover an average thin-ice area of 226.6 -± 36.1 x 10-³ km-² during winter (November to March) and yield an average total wintertime accumulated ice production of about 1811 -± 293 km-³. Regional differences in derived ice production trends are noticeable. The Laptev Sea on the Siberian shelf is presented as a focus region, as frequently appearing polynyas along the fast-ice edge promote high rates of new ice production. New affirming results on a distinct relation to sea-ice area export rates and hence, the Transpolar Drift, are shown. This new high-resolution pan-Arctic data set can be further utilized and build upon in a variety of atmospheric and oceanographic applications, while still offering room for further improvements such as incorporating high-resolution atmospheric data sets and an optimized lead-detection.
Determining the exact position of a forest inventory plot—and hence the position of the sampled trees—is often hampered by a poor Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal quality beneath the forest canopy. Inaccurate geo-references hamper the performance of models that aim to retrieve useful information from spatially high remote sensing data (e.g., species classification or timber volume estimation). This restriction is even more severe on the level of individual trees. The objective of this study was to develop a post-processing strategy to improve the positional accuracy of GNSS-measured sample-plot centers and to develop a method to automatically match trees within a terrestrial sample plot to aerial detected trees. We propose a new method which uses a random forest classifier to estimate the matching probability of each terrestrial-reference and aerial detected tree pair, which gives the opportunity to assess the reliability of the results. We investigated 133 sample plots of the Third German National Forest Inventory (BWI, 2011"2012) within the German federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate. For training and objective validation, synthetic forest stands have been modeled using the Waldplaner 2.0 software. Our method has achieved an overall accuracy of 82.7% for co-registration and 89.1% for tree matching. With our method, 60% of the investigated plots could be successfully relocated. The probabilities provided by the algorithm are an objective indicator of the reliability of a specific result which could be incorporated into quantitative models to increase the performance of forest attribute estimations.
Academic self-concept (ASC) is comprised of individual perceptions of one- own academic ability. In a cross-sectional quasi-representative sample of 3,779 German elementary school children in grades 1 to 4, we investigated (a) the structure of ASC, (b) ASC profile formation, an aspect of differentiation that is reflected in lower correlations between domain-specific ASCs with increasing grade level, (c) the impact of (internal) dimensional comparisons of one- own ability in different school subjects for profile formation of ASC, and (d) the role played by differences in school grades between subjects for these dimensional comparisons. The nested Marsh/Shavelson model, with general ASC at the apex and math, writing, and reading ASC as specific factors nested under general ASC fitted the data at all grade levels. A first-order factor model with math, writing, reading, and general ASCs as correlated factors provided a good fit, too. ASC profile formation became apparent during the first two to three years of school. Dimensional comparisons across subjects contributed to ASC profile formation. School grades enhanced these comparisons, especially when achievement profiles were uneven. In part, findings depended on the assumed structural model of ASCs. Implications for further research are discussed with special regard to factors influencing and moderating dimensional comparisons.
Dysfunctional eating behavior is a major risk factor for developing all sorts of eating disorders. Food craving is a concept that may help to understand better why and how these and other eating disorders become chronic conditions through non homeastatically-driven mechanisms. As obesity affects people worldwide, cultural differences must be acknowledged to apply proper therapeutic strategies. In this work, we adapted the Food Craving Inventory (FCI) to the German population. We performed a factor analysis of an adaptation of the original FCI in a sample of 326 men and women. We could replicate the factor structure of the FCI on a German population.rnThe factor extraction procedure produced a factor solution that reproduces the fourfactors described in the original inventory, the FCI. Our instrument presents high internal consistency, as well as a significant correlation with measures of convergent and discriminant validity. The FCI-Deutsch (FCI-DE) is a valid instrument to assess craving for particular foods in Germany, and it could, therefore, prove useful in the clinical and research practice in the field of obesity and eating behaviors.
Earth observation (EO) is a prerequisite for sustainable land use management, and the open-data Landsat mission is at the forefront of this development. However, increasing data volumes have led to a "digital-divide", and consequently, it is key to develop methods that account for the most data-intensive processing steps, then used for the generation and provision of analysis-ready, standardized, higher-level (Level 2 and Level 3) baseline products for enhanced uptake in environmental monitoring systems. Accordingly, the overarching research task of this dissertation was to develop such a framework with a special emphasis on the yet under-researched drylands of Southern Africa. A fully automatic and memory-resident radiometric preprocessing streamline (Level 2) was implemented. The method was applied to the complete Angolan, Zambian, Zimbabwean, Botswanan, and Namibian Landsat record, amounting 58,731 images with a total data volume of nearly 15 TB. Cloud/shadow detection capabilities were improved for drylands. An integrated correction of atmospheric, topographic and bidirectional effects was implemented, based on radiative theory with corrections for multiple scatterings, and adjacency effects, as well as including a multilayered toolset for estimating aerosol optical depth over persistent dark targets or by falling back on a spatio-temporal climatology. Topographic and bidirectional effects were reduced with a semi-empirical C-correction and a global set of correction parameters, respectively. Gridding and reprojection were already included to facilitate easy and efficient further processing. The selection of phenologically similar observations is a key monitoring requirement for multi-temporal analyses, and hence, the generation of Level 3 products that realize phenological normalization on the pixel-level was pursued. As a prerequisite, coarse resolution Land Surface Phenology (LSP) was derived in a first step, then spatially refined by fusing it with a small number of Level 2 images. For this purpose, a novel data fusion technique was developed, wherein a focal filter based approach employs multi-scale and source prediction proxies. Phenologically normalized composites (Level 3) were generated by coupling the target day (i.e. the main compositing criterion) to the input LSP. The approach was demonstrated by generating peak, end and minimum of season composites, and by comparing these with static composites (fixed target day). It was shown that the phenological normalization accounts for terrain- and land cover class-induced LSP differences, and the use of Level 2 inputs enables a wide range of monitoring options, among them the detection of within state processes like forest degradation. In summary, the developed preprocessing framework is capable of generating several analysis-ready baseline EO satellite products. These datasets can be used for regional case studies, but may also be directly integrated into more operational monitoring systems " e.g. in support of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) incentive. In reference to IEEE copyrighted material which is used with permission in this thesis, the IEEE does not endorse any of Trier University's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. If interested in reprinting/republishing IEEE copyrighted material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution, please go to http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/rights_link.html to learn how to obtain a License from RightsLink.
Monetary Policy During Times of Crisis - Frictions and Non-Linearities in the Transmission Mechanism
(2017)
For a long time it was believed that monetary policy would be able to maintain price stability and foster economic growth during all phases of the business cycle. The era of the Great Moderation, often also called the Volcker-Greenspan period, beginning in the mid 1980s was characterized by a decline in volatility of output growth and inflation among the industrialized countries. The term itself is first used by Stock and Watson (2003). Economist have long studied what triggered the decline in volatility and pointed out several main factors. An important research strand points out structural changes in the economy, such as a decline of volatility in the goods producing sector through better inventory controls and developments in the financial sector and government spending (McConnell2000, Blanchard2001, Stock2003, Kim2004, Davis2008). While many believed that monetary policy was only 'lucky' in terms of their reaction towards inflation and exogenous shocks (Stock2003, Primiceri2005, Sims2006, Gambetti2008), others reveal a more complex picture of the story. Rule based monetary policy (Taylor1993) that incorporates inflation targeting (Svensson1999) has been identified as a major source of inflation stabilization by increasing transparency (Clarida2000, Davis2008, Benati2009, Coibion2011). Apart from that, the mechanics of monetary policy transmission have changed. Giannone et al. (2008) compare the pre-Great Moderation era with the Great Modertation and find that the economies reaction towards monetary shocks has decreased. This finding is supported by Boivin et al. (2011). Similar to this, Herrera and Pesavento (2009) show that monetary policy during the Volcker-Greenspan period was very effective in dampening the effects of exogenous oil price shocks on the economy, while this cannot be found for the period thereafter. Yet, the subprime crisis unexpectedly hit worldwide economies and ended the era of Great Moderation. Financial deregulation and innovation has given banks opportunities for excessive risk taking, weakened financial stability (Crotty2009, Calomiris2009) and led to the build-up of credit-driven asset price bubbles (SchularickTaylor2012). The Federal Reserve (FED), that was thought to be the omnipotent conductor of price stability and economic growth during the Great Moderation, failed at preventing a harsh crisis. Even more, it did intensify the bubble with low interest rates following the Dotcom crisis of the early 2000s and misjudged the impact of its interventions (Taylor2009, Obstfeld2009). New results give a more detailed explanation on the question of latitude for monetary policy raised by Bernanke and suggest the existence of non-linearities in the transmission of monetary policy. Weise (1999), Garcia and Schaller (2002), Lo and Piger (2005), Mishkin (2009), Neuenkirch (2013) and Jannsen et al. (2015) find that monetary policy is more potent during times of financial distress and recessions. Its effectiveness during 'normal times' is much weaker or even insignificant. This prompts the question if these non-linearities limit central banks ability to lean against bubbles and financial imbalances (White2009, Walsh2009, Boivin2010, Mishkin2011).
This dissertation looked at both design-based and model-based estimation for rare and clustered populations using the idea of the ACS design. The ACS design (Thompson, 2012, p. 319) starts with an initial sample that is selected by a probability sampling method. If any of the selected units meets a pre-specified condition, its neighboring units are added to the sample and observed. If any of the added units meets the pre-specified condition, its neighboring units are further added to the sample and observed. The procedure continues until there are no more units that meet the pre-specified condition. In this dissertation, the pre-specified condition is the detection of at least one animal in a selected unit. In the design-based estimation, three estimators were proposed under three specific design setting. The first design was stratified strip ACS design that is suitable for aerial or ship surveys. This was a case study in estimating population totals of African elephants. In this case, units/quadrant were observed only once during an aerial survey. The Des Raj estimator (Raj, 1956) was modified to obtain an unbiased estimate of the population total. The design was evaluated using simulated data with different levels of rarity and clusteredness. The design was also evaluated on real data of African elephants that was obtained from an aerial census conducted in parts of Kenya and Tanzania in October (dry season) 2013. In this study, the order in which the samples were observed was maintained. Re-ordering the samples by making use of the Murthy's estimator (Murthy, 1957) can produce more efficient estimates. Hence a possible extension of this study. The computation cost resulting from the n! permutations in the Murthy's estimator however, needs to be put into consideration. The second setting was when there exists an auxiliary variable that is negatively correlated with the study variable. The Murthy's estimator (Murthy, 1964) was modified. Situations when the modified estimator is preferable was given both in theory and simulations using simulated and two real data sets. The study variable for the real data sets was the distribution and counts of oryx and wildbeest. This was obtained from an aerial census that was conducted in parts of Kenya and Tanzania in October (dry season) 2013. Temperature was the auxiliary variable for two study variables. Temperature data was obtained from R package raster. The modified estimator provided more efficient estimates with lower bias compared to the original Murthy's estimator (Murthy, 1964). The modified estimator was also more efficient compared to the modified HH and the modified HT estimators of (Thompson, 2012, p. 319). In this study, one auxiliary variable is considered. A fruitful area for future research would be to incorporate multi-auxiliary information at the estimation phase of an ACS design. This could, in principle, be done by using for instance a multivariate extension of the product estimator (Singh, 1967) or by using the generalized regression estimator (Särndal et al., 1992). The third case under design-based estimation, studied the conjoint use of the stopping rule (Gattone and Di Battista, 2011) and the use of the without replacement of clusters (Dryver and Thompson, 2007). Each of these two methods was proposed to reduce the sampling cost though the use of the stopping rule results in biased estimates. Despite this bias, the new estimator resulted in higher efficiency gain in comparison to the without replacement of cluster design. It was also more efficient compared to the stratified design which is known to reduce final sample size when networks are truncated at stratum boundaries. The above evaluation was based on simulated and real data. The real data was the distribution and counts of hartebeest, elephants and oryx obtained in the same census as above. The bias attributed by the stopping rule has not been evaluated analytically. This may not be direct since the truncated network formed depends on the initial unit sampled (Gattone et al., 2016a). This and the order of the bias however, deserves further investigation as it may help in understanding the effect of the increase in the initial sample size together with the population characteristics on the efficiency of the proposed estimator. Chapter four modeled data that was obtained using the stratified strip ACS (as described in sub-section (3.1)). This was an extension of the model of Rapley and Welsh (2008) by modeling data that was obtained from a different design, the introduction of an auxiliary variable and the use of the without replacement of clusters mechanism. Ideally, model-based estimation does not depend on the design or rather how the sample was obtained. This is however, not the case if the design is informative; such as the ACS design. In this case, the procedure that was used to obtain the sample was incorporated in the model. Both model-based and design-based simulations were conducted using artificial and real data. The study and the auxiliary variable for the real data was the distribution and counts of elephants collected during an aerial census in parts of Kenya and Tanzania in October (dry season) and April (wet season) 2013 respectively. Areas of possible future research include predicting the population total of African elephants in all parks in Kenya. This can be achieved in an economical and reliable way by using the theory of SAE. Chapter five compared the different proposed strategies using the elephant data. Again the study variable was the elephant data from October (dry season) 2013 and the auxiliary variable was the elephant data from April (wet season) 2013. The results show that the choice of particular strategy to use depends on the characteristic of the population under study and the level and the direction of the correlation between the study and the auxiliary variable (if present). One general area of the ACS design that is still behind, is the implementation of the design in the field especially on animal populations. This is partly attributed by the challenges associated with the field implementation, some of which were discussed in section 2.3. Green et al. (2010) however, provides new insights in undertaking the ACS design during an aerial survey such as how the aircraft should turn while surveying neighboring units. A key point throughout the dissertation is the reduction of cost during a survey which can be seen by the reduction in the number of units in the final sample (through the use of stopping rule, use of stratification and truncating networks at stratum boundaries) and ensuring that units are observed only once (by using the without replacement of cluster sampling technique). The cost of surveying an edge unit(s) is assumed to be low in which case the efficiency of the ACS design relative to the non-adaptive design is achieved (Thompson and Collins, 2002). This is however not the case in aerial surveys as the aircraft flies at constant speed and height (Norton-Griffiths, 1978). Hence the cost of surveying an edge unit is the same as the cost of surveying a unit that meets the condition of interest. The without replacement of cluster technique plays a greater role of reducing the cost of sampling in such surveys. Other key points that motivated the sections in the dissertation include gains in efficiency (in all sections) and practicability of the designs in the specific setting. Even though the dissertation focused on animal populations, the methods can as well be implemented in any population that is rare and clustered such as in the study of forestry, plants, pollution, minerals and so on.
The development of our society contributed to increased occurrence of emerging substances (pesticides, pharmaceuticals, personal care products, etc.) in wastewater. Because of their potential hazard on ecosystems and humans, Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs) need to adapt to better remove these compounds. Technology or policy development should however comply with sustainable development, e.g. based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) metrics. Nevertheless, the reliability or consistency of LCA results can sometimes be debatable. The main objective of this work was to explore how LCA can better support the implementation of innovative wastewater treatment options, in particular including removal benefits. The method was applied to support solutions for pharmaceuticals elimination from wastewater, regarding: (i) UV technology design, (ii) choice of advanced technology and (iii) centralized or decentralized treatment policy. The assessment approach followed by previous authors based on net impacts calculation seemed very promising to consider both environmental effects induced by treatment plant operation and environmental benefits obtained from pollutants removal. It was therefore applied to compare UV configuration types. LCA outcomes were consistent with degradation kinetics analysis. For the comparison of advanced technologies and policy scenarios, the common practice (net impacts based on EDIP method) was compared to other assessments, to better consider elimination benefits. First, USEtox consensus was applied for the avoided (eco)toxicity impacts, in combination with the recent method ReCiPe for generated impacts. Then, an eco-efficiency indicator (EFI) was developed to weigh the treatment efforts (generated impacts based on EDIP and ReCiPe methods) by the average removal efficiency (overcoming (eco)toxicity uncertainty issues). In total, the four types of comparative assessment showed the same trends: (i) ozonation and activated carbon perform better than UV irradiation, and (ii) no clear advantage distinguished between policy scenarios. It cannot be however concluded that advanced treatment of pharmaceuticals is not necessary because other criteria should be considered (risk assessment, bacterial resistance, etc.) and large uncertainties were embedded in calculations. Indeed, a significant part of this work was dedicated to the discussion of uncertainty and limitations of the LCA outcomes. At the inventory level, it was difficult to model technology operation at development stage. For impact assessment, the newly developed characterization factors for pharmaceuticals (eco)toxicity showed large uncertainties, mainly due to the lack of data and quality for toxicity tests. The use of information made available under REACH framework to develop CFs for detergent ingredients tried to cope with this issue but the benefits were limited due to the mismatch of information between REACH and USEtox method. The highlighted uncertainties were treated with sensitivity analyses to understand their effects on LCA results. This research work finally presents perspectives on the use of transparently generated data (technology inventory and (eco)toxicity factors) and further development of EFI indicator. Also, an accent is made on increasing the reliability of LCA outcomes, in particular through the implementation of advanced techniques for uncertainty management. To conclude, innovative technology/product development (e.g. based on circular economy approach) needs the involvement of all types of actors and the support from sustainability metrics.
Educational assessment tends to rely on more or less standardized tests, teacher judgments, and observations. Although teachers spend approximately half of their professional conduct in assessment-related activities, most of them enter their professional life unprepared, as classroom assessment is often not part of their educational training. Since teacher judgments matter for the educational development of students, the judgments should be up to a high standard. The present dissertation comprises three studies focusing on accuracy of teacher judgments (Study 1), consequences of (mis-)judgment regarding teacher nomination for gifted programming (Study 2) and teacher recommendations for secondary school tracks (Study 3), and individual student characteristics that impact and potentially bias teacher judgment (Studies 1 through 3). All studies were designed to contribute to a further understanding of classroom assessment skills of teachers. Overall, the results implied that, teacher judgment of cognitive ability was an important constant for teacher nominations and recommendations but lacked accuracy. Furthermore, teacher judgments of various traits and school achievement were substantially related to social background variables, especially the parents" educational background. However, multivariate analysis showed social background variables to impact nomination and recommendation only marginally if at all. All results indicated differentiated but potentially biased teacher judgments to impact their far-reaching referral decisions directly, while the influence of social background on the referral decisions itself seems mediated. Implications regarding further research practices and educational assessment strategies are discussed. The implications on the needs of teachers to be educated on judgment and educational assessment are of particular interest and importance.
The main achievement of this thesis is an analysis of the accuracy of computations with Loader's algorithm for the binomial density. This analysis in later progress of work could be used for a theorem about the numerical accuracy of algorithms that compute rectangle probabilities for scan statistics of a multinomially distributed random variable. An example that shall illustrate the practical use of probabilities for scan statistics is the following, which arises in epidemiology: Let n patients arrive at a clinic in d = 365 days, each of the patients with probability 1/d at each of these d days and all patients independently from each other. The knowledge of the probability, that there exist 3 adjacent days, in which together more than k patients arrive, helps deciding, after observing data, if there is a cluster which we would not suspect to have occurred randomly but for which we suspect there must be a reason. Formally, this epidemiological example can be described by a multinomial model. As multinomially distributed random variables are examples of Markov increments, which is a fact already used implicitly by Corrado (2011) to compute the distribution function of the multinomial maximum, we can use a generalized version of Corrado's Algorithm to compute the probability described in our example. To compute its result, the algorithm for rectangle probabilities for Markov increments always uses transition probabilities of the corresponding Markov Chain. In the multinomial case, the transition probabilities of the corresponding Markov Chain are binomial probabilities. Therefore, we start an analysis of accuracy of Loader's algorithm for the binomial density, which for example the statistical software R uses. With the help of accuracy bounds for the binomial density we would be able to derive accuracy bounds for the computation of rectangle probabilities for scan statistics of multinomially distributed random variables. To figure out how sharp derived accuracy bounds are, in examples these can be compared to rigorous upper bounds and rigorous lower bounds which we obtain by interval-arithmetical computations.
It is generally assumed that the temperature increase associated with global climate change will lead to increased thunderstorm intensity and associated heavy precipitation events. In the present study it is investigated whether the frequency of thunderstorm occurrences will in- or decrease and how the spatial distribution will change for the A1B scenario. The region of interest is Central Europe with a special focus on the Saar-Lor-Lux region (Saarland, Lorraine, Luxembourg) and Rhineland-Palatinate.Daily model data of the COSMO-CLM with a horizontal resolution of 4.5 km is used. The simulations were carried out for two different time slices: 1971"2000 (C20), and 2071"2100 (A1B). Thunderstorm indices are applied to detect thunderstorm-prone conditions and differences in their frequency of occurrence in the two thirty years timespans. The indices used are CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), SLI (Surface Lifted Index), and TSP (Thunderstorm Severity Potential).The investigation of the present and future thunderstorm conducive conditions show a significant increase of non-thunderstorm conditions. The regional averaged thunderstorm frequencies will decrease in general, but only in the Alps a potential increase in thunderstorm occurrences and intensity is found. The comparison between time slices of 10 and 30 years length show that the number of gridpoints with significant signals increases only slightly. In order to get a robust signal for severe thunderstorm, an extension to more than 75 years would be necessary.
The Firepower of Work Craving: When Self-Control Is Burning under the Rubble of Self-Regulation
(2017)
Work craving theory addresses how work-addicted individuals direct great emotion-regulatory efforts to weave their addictive web of working. They crave work for two main emotional incentives: to overcompensate low self-worth and to escape (i.e., reduce) negative affect, which is strategically achieved through neurotic perfectionism and compulsive working. Work-addicted individuals" strong persistence and self-discipline with respect to work-related activities suggest strong skills in volitional action control. However, their inability to disconnect from work implies low volitional skills. How can work-addicted individuals have poor and strong volitional skills at the same time? To answer this paradox, we elaborated on the relevance of two different volitional modes in work craving: self-regulation (self-maintenance) and self-control (goal maintenance). Four hypotheses were derived from Wojdylo- work craving theory and Kuhl- self-regulation theory: (H1) Work craving is associated with a combination of low self-regulation and high self-control. (H2) Work craving is associated with symptoms of psychological distress. (H3) Low self-regulation is associated with psychological distress symptoms. (H4) Work craving mediates the relationships between self-regulation deficits and psychological distress symptoms at high levels of self-control. Additionally, we aimed at supporting the discriminant validity of work craving with respect to work engagement by showing their different volitional underpinnings. Results of the two studies confirmed our hypotheses: whereas work craving was predicted by high self-control and low self-regulation and associated with higher psychological distress, work engagement was predicted by high self-regulation and high self-control and associated with lower symptoms of psychological distress. Furthermore, work styles mediated the relationship between volitional skills and symptoms of psychological distress. Based on these new insights, several suggestions for prevention and therapeutic interventions for work-addicted individuals are proposed.
Phase-amplitude cross-frequency coupling is a mechanism thought to facilitate communication between neuronal ensembles. The mechanism could underlie the implementation of complex cognitive processes, like executive functions, in the brain. This thesis contributes to answering the question, whether phase-amplitude cross-frequency coupling - assessed via electroencephalography (EEG) - is a mechanism by which executive functioning is implemented in the brain and whether an assumed performance effect of stress on executive functioning is reflected in phase-amplitude coupling strength. A huge body of studies shows that stress can influence executive functioning, in essence having detrimental effects. In two independent studies, each being comprised of two core executive function tasks (flexibility and behavioural inhibition as well as cognitive inhibition and working memory), beta-gamma phase-amplitude coupling was robustly detected in the left and right prefrontal hemispheres. No systematic pattern of coupling strength modulation by either task demands or acute stress was detected. Beta-gamma coupling might also be present in more basic attention processes. This is the first investigation of the relationship between stress, executive functions and phase-amplitude coupling. Therefore, many aspects have not been explored yet. For example, studying phase precision instead of coupling strength as an indicator for phase-amplitude coupling modulations. Furthermore, data was analysed in source space (independent component analysis); comparability to sensor space has still to be determined. These as well as other aspects should be investigated, due to the promising finding of very robust and strong beta-gamma coupling for all executive functions. Additionally, this thesis tested the performance of two widely used phase-amplitude coupling measures (mean vector length and modulation index). Both measures are specific and sensitive to coupling strength and coupling width. The simulation study also drew attention to several confounding factors, which influence phase-amplitude coupling measures (e. g. data length, multimodality).
Besides well-known positive aspects of conservation tillage combined with mulching, a drawback may be the survival of phytopathogenic fungi like Fusarium species on plant residues. This may endanger the health of the following crop by increasing the infection risk for specific plant diseases. In infected plant organs, these pathogens are able to produce mycotoxins like deoxynivalenol (DON). Mycotoxins like DON persist during storage, are heat resistant and of major concern for human and animal health after consumption of contaminated food and feed, respectively. Among fungivorous soil organisms, there are representatives of the soil fauna which are obviously antagonistic to a Fusarium infection and the contamination with mycotoxins. Earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris), collembolans (Folsomia candida) and nematodes (Aphelenchoides saprophilus) provide a wide range of ecosystem services including the stimulation of decomposition processes which may result in the regulation of plant pathogens and the degradation of environmental contaminants. Several investigations under laboratory conditions and in the field were conducted to test the following hypotheses: (1) Fusarium-infected and DON-contaminated wheat straw provides a more attractive food substrate than non-infected control straw (2) the introduced soil fauna reduce the biomass of F. culmorum and the content of DON in infected wheat straw under laboratory and field conditions (3) the species interaction of the introduced soil fauna enhances the degradation of Fusarium biomass and DON concentration in wheat straw; (4) the degradation efficiency of soil fauna is affected by soil texture. The results of the present thesis pointed out that the degradation performance of the introduced soil fauna must be considered as an important contribution to the biological control of plant diseases and environmental pollutants. As in particular L. terrestris revealed to be the driver of the degradation process, earthworms contribute to a sustainable control of fungal pathogens like Fusarium and its mycotoxins in wheat straw, thus reducing the risk of plant diseases and environmental pollution as ecosystem services.
Shape optimization is of interest in many fields of application. In particular, shape optimization problems arise frequently in technological processes which are modelled by partial differential equations (PDEs). In a lot of practical circumstances, the shape under investigation is parametrized by a finite number of parameters, which, on the one hand, allows the application of standard optimization approaches, but, on the other hand, unnecessarily limits the space of reachable shapes. Shape calculus presents a way to circumvent this dilemma. However, so far shape optimization based on shape calculus is mainly performed using gradient descent methods. One reason for this is the lack of symmetry of second order shape derivatives or shape Hessians. A major difference between shape optimization and the standard PDE constrained optimization framework is the lack of a linear space structure on shape spaces. If one cannot use a linear space structure, then the next best structure is a Riemannian manifold structure, in which one works with Riemannian shape Hessians. They possess the often sought property of symmetry, characterize well-posedness of optimization problems and define sufficient optimality conditions. In general, shape Hessians are used to accelerate gradient-based shape optimization methods. This thesis deals with shape optimization problems constrained by PDEs and embeds these problems in the framework of optimization on Riemannian manifolds to provide efficient techniques for PDE constrained shape optimization problems on shape spaces. A Lagrange-Newton and a quasi-Newton technique in shape spaces for PDE constrained shape optimization problems are formulated. These techniques are based on the Hadamard-form of shape derivatives, i.e., on the form of integrals over the surface of the shape under investigation. It is often a very tedious, not to say painful, process to derive such surface expressions. Along the way, volume formulations in the form of integrals over the entire domain appear as an intermediate step. This thesis couples volume integral formulations of shape derivatives with optimization strategies on shape spaces in order to establish efficient shape algorithms reducing analytical effort and programming work. In this context, a novel shape space is proposed.
Exposure to fine and ultra-fine environmental particles is still a problem of concern in many industrialized parts of the world and the intensified use of nanotechnology may further increase exposure to small particles. Since many years air pollution is recognized as a critical problem in western countries, which led to rigorous regulation of air quality and the introduction of strict guidelines. However, the upper thresholds for particulates in ambient air recommended by the world health organization are often exceeded several times in newly industrialized countries. Such high levels of air pollution have the potential to induce adverse effects on human health. The response triggered by air pollutants is not limited to local effects of the respiratory system but is often systemic, resulting in endothelial dysfunction or atherosclerotic malady. The link between air pollution and cardiovascular disease is now accepted by the scientific community but the underlying mechanisms responsible for the pro-atherogenic potential still need to be unraveled in detail. Based on the results from in- vivo and in vitro studies the production of reactive oxygen species due to exposure to particles is the most important mechanism to explain the observed adverse effects. However, the doses that were applied in many in vivo and in vitro studies are far beyond the range of what humans are exposed to and there is the need for more realistic exposure studies. Complex in vitro coculture systems may be valuable tools to study particle-induced processes and to extrapolate effects of particles on the lung. One of the objectives of this PhD thesis was the establishment and further improvement of a complex coculture system initially described by Alfaro-Moreno et al. [1]. The system is composed of an alveolar type-II cell line (A549), differentiated macrophage-like cells (THP-1), mast cells (HMC-1) and endothelial cells (EA.hy 926), seeded in a 3D-orientation on a microporous membrane to mimic the cell response of the alveolar surface in vitro in conjunction with native aerosol exposure (VitrocellTM chamber). The tetraculture system was carefully characterized to ensure its performance and repeatability of results. The spatial distribution of the cells in the tetraculture was analyzed by confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM), showing a confluent layer of endothelial and epithelial cells on both sides of the Transwellâ„¢. Macrophage-like cells and mast cells can be found on top of the epithelial cells. The latter cells formed colonies under submerged conditions, which disappeared at the air-liquid-interface (ALI). The VitrocellTM aerosol exposure system was not significantly influencing the viability. Using this system, cells were exposed to an aerosol of 50 nm SiO2-Rhodamine nanoparticles (NPs) in PBS. The distribution of the NPs in the tetraculture after exposure was evaluated by CLSM. Fluorescence from internalized particles was detected in CD11b-positive THP-1 cells only. Furthermore, all cell lines were found to be able to respond to xenobiotic model compounds, such as benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) or 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) with the upregulation of CYP1 mRNA. With this tetraculture system the response of the endothelial part of the alveolar barrier was studied in- vitro in a still realistic exposure scenario representing the conditions for a polluted situation without direct exposure of endothelial cells. After exposure to diesel exhaust particulate matter (DEPM) the expression of different anti-oxidant target genes and inflammatory genes such as NAD(P)H dehydrogenase quinone 1 (NQO1), superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) and heme oxygenase 1 (HMOX1), as well as the nuclear translocation nuclear factor erythroid-derived 2 (Nrf2) was evaluated. In addition, the potential of DEPM to induce the upregulation of CYP1A1 mRNA in the endothelium was analyzed. DEPM exposure led not to an upregulation of the anti-oxidant or inflammatory target genes, but to clear nuclear translocation of Nrf2. The endothelial cells responded to the DEPM treatment also with the upregulation of CYP1A1 mRNA and nuclear translocation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). Overall, DEPM triggered a response in the endothelial cells after indirect exposure of the tetraculture system to low doses of DEPM, underlining the sensitivity of ALI exposure systems. The use of the tetraculture together with the native aerosol exposure equipment may finally lead to a more realistic judgment regarding the hazard of new compounds and/or new nano-scaled materials in the future. For the first time, it was possible to study the response of the endothelial cells of the alveolar barrier in vitro in a realistic exposure scenario avoiding direct exposure of endothelial cells to high amounts of particulates.
The present work considers the normal approximation of the binomial distribution and yields estimations of the supremum distance of the distribution functions of the binomial- and the corresponding standardized normal distribution. The type of the estimations correspond to the classical Berry-Esseen theorem, in the special case that all random variables are identically Bernoulli distributed. In this case we state the optimal constant for the Berry-Esseen theorem. In the proof of these estimations several inequalities regarding the density as well as the distribution function of the binomial distribution are presented. Furthermore in the estimations mentioned above the distribution function is replaced by the probability of arbitrary, not only unlimited intervals and in this new situation we also present an upper bound.
The equity premium (Mehra and Prescott, 1985) is still a puzzle in the sense that there are still no convincing explanations for the size of the equity premium. In this dissertation, we study this long-standing puzzle and several possible behavioral explanations. First, we apply the IRR methodology proposed by Fama and French (1999) to achieve large firm level data on the equity premia for N = 28,256 companies in 54 countries around the world. Second, by using preferences data from the INTRA study (Rieger et. al., 2014), we could test the relevant risk factors together with time cognition to explain the equity premium. We document the failure of the Myopic Loss Aversion hypothesis by Benartzi and Thaler (1995) but provides rigorous empirical evidence to support the behavioral theory of ambiguity aversion to account for the equity premium. The observations shed some light on the new approach of integrating risk and ambiguity (together with time preferences) into a more general model of uncertainty, in which both risk premium and ambiguity premium play roles in asset pricing models.
Cognitive performance is contingent upon multiple factors. Beyond the impact of en-vironmental circumstances, the bodily state may hinder or promote cognitive processing. Af-ferent transmission from the viscera, for instance, is crucial not only for the genesis of affect and emotion, but further exerts significant influences on memory and attention. In particular, afferent cardiovascular feedback from baroreceptors demonstrated subcortical and cortical inhibition. Consequences for human cognition and behavior are the impairment of simple perception and sensorimotor functioning. Four studies are presented that investigate the mod-ulatory impact of baro-afferent feedback on selective attention. The first study demonstrates that the modulation of sensory processing by baroreceptor activity applies to the processing of complex stimulus configurations. By the use of a visual masking task in which a target had to be selected against a visual mask, perceptual interference was reduced when target and mask were presented during the ventricular systole compared to the diastole. In study two, selection efficiency was systematically manipulated in a visual selection task in which a target letter was flanked by distracting stimuli. By comparing participants" performance under homogene-ous and heterogeneous stimulus conditions, selection efficiency was assessed as a function of the cardiac cycle phase in which the targets and distractors were presented. The susceptibility of selection performance to the stimulus condition at hand was less pronounced during the ventricular systole compared to the diastole. Study one and two therefore indicate that inter-ference from irrelevant sensory input, resulting from temporally overlapping processing traces or from the simultaneous presentation of distractor stimuli, is reduced during phases of in-creased baro-afferent feedback. Study three experimentally manipulated baroreceptor activity by systematically varying the participant- body position while a sequential distractor priming task was completed. In this study, negative priming and distractor-response binding effects were obtained as indices of controlled and automatic distractor processing, respectively. It was found that only controlled distractor processing was affected by tonic increases in baro-receptor activity. In line with study one and two these results indicate that controlled selection processes are more efficient during enhanced baro-afferent feedback, observable in dimin-ished aftereffects of controlled distractor processing. Due to previous findings that indicated baro-afferent transmission to affect central, rather than response-related processing stages, study four measured lateralized-readiness potentials (LRPs) and reaction times (RTs), while participants, again, had to selectively respond to target stimuli that were surrounded by dis-tractors. The impact of distractor inhibition on stimulus-related, but not on response-related LRPs suggests that in a sequential distractor priming task, the sensory representations of dis-tractors, rather than motor responses are targeted by inhibition. Together with the results from studies one through three and the finding of baroreceptor-mediated behavioral inhibition tar-geting central processing stages, study four corroborates the presumption of baro-afferent signal transmission to modulate controlled processes involved in selective attention. In sum, the work presented shows that visual selective attention benefits from in-creased baro-afferent feedback as its effects are not confined to simple perception, but may facilitate the active suppression of neural activity related to sensory input from distractors. Hence, due to noise reduction, baroreceptor-mediated inhibition may promote effective selec-tion in vision.
The efficacy and effectiveness of psychotherapeutic interventions have been proven time and again. We therefore know that, in general, evidence-based treatments work for the average patient. However, it has also repeatedly been shown that some patients do not profit from or even deteriorate during treatment. Patient-focused psychotherapy research takes these differences between patients into account by focusing on the individual patient. The aim of this research approach is to analyze individual treatment courses in order to evaluate when and under which circumstances a generally effective treatment works for an individual patient. The goal is to identify evidence based clinical decision rules for the adaptation of treatment to prevent treatment failure. Patient-focused research has illustrated how different intake indicators and early change patterns predict the individual course of treatment, but they leave a lot of variance unexplained. The thesis at hand analyzed whether Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) strategies could be integrated into patient-focused psychotherapy research in order to improve treatment response prediction models. EMA is an electronically supported diary approach, in which multiple real-time assessments are conducted in participants" everyday lives. We applied EMA over a two-week period before treatment onset in a mixed sample of patients seeking outpatient treatment. The four daily measurements in the patients" everyday environment focused on assessing momentary affect and levels of rumination, perceived self-efficacy, social support and positive or negative life events since the previous assessment. The aim of this thesis project was threefold: First, to test the feasibility of EMA in a routine care outpatient setting. Second, to analyze the interrelation of different psychological processes within patients" everyday lives. Third and last, to test whether individual indicators of psychological processes during everyday life, which were assessed before treatment onset, could be used to improve prediction models of early treatment response. Results from Study I indicate good feasibility of EMA application during the waiting period for outpatient treatment. High average compliance rates over the entire assessment period and low average burdens perceived by the patients support good applicability. Technical challenges and the results of in-depth missing analyses are reported to guide future EMA applications in outpatient settings. Results from Study II shed further light on the rumination-affect link. We replicated results from earlier studies, which identified a negative association between state rumination and affect on a within-person level and additionally showed a) that this finding holds for the majority but not every individual in a diverse patient sample with mixed Axis-I disorders, b) that rumination is linked to negative but also to positive affect and c) that dispositional rumination significantly affects the state rumination-affect association. The results provide exploratory evidence that rumination might be considered a transdiagnostic mechanism of psychological functioning and well-being. Results from Study III finally suggest that the integration of indicators derived from EMA applications before treatment onset can improve prediction models of early treatment response. Positive-negative affect ratios as well as fluctuations in negative affect measured during patients" daily lives allow the prediction of early treatment response. Our results indicate that the combination of commonly applied intake predictors and EMA indicators of individual patients" daily experiences can improve treatment response predictions models. We therefore conclude that EMA can successfully be integrated into patient-focused research approaches in routine care settings to ameliorate or optimize individual care.
Matching problems with additional resource constraints are generalizations of the classical matching problem. The focus of this work is on matching problems with two types of additional resource constraints: The couple constrained matching problem and the level constrained matching problem. The first one is a matching problem which has imposed a set of additional equality constraints. Each constraint demands that for a given pair of edges either both edges are in the matching or none of them is in the matching. The second one is a matching problem which has imposed a single equality constraint. This constraint demands that an exact number of edges in the matching are so-called on-level edges. In a bipartite graph with fixed indices of the nodes, these are the edges with end-nodes that have the same index. As a central result concerning the couple constrained matching problem we prove that this problem is NP-hard, even on bipartite cycle graphs. Concerning the complexity of the level constrained perfect matching problem we show that it is polynomially equivalent to three other combinatorial optimization problems from the literature. For different combinations of fixed and variable parameters of one of these problems, the restricted perfect matching problem, we investigate their effect on the complexity of the problem. Further, the complexity of the assignment problem with an additional equality constraint is investigated. In a central part of this work we bring couple constraints into connection with a level constraint. We introduce the couple and level constrained matching problem with on-level couples, which is a matching problem with a special case of couple constraints together with a level constraint imposed on it. We prove that the decision version of this problem is NP-complete. This shows that the level constraint can be sufficient for making a polynomially solvable problem NP-hard when being imposed on that problem. This work also deals with the polyhedral structure of resource constrained matching problems. For the polytope corresponding to the relaxation of the level constrained perfect matching problem we develop a characterization of its non-integral vertices. We prove that for any given non-integral vertex of the polytope a corresponding inequality which separates this vertex from the convex hull of integral points can be found in polynomial time. Regarding the calculation of solutions of resource constrained matching problems, two new algorithms are presented. We develop a polynomial approximation algorithm for the level constrained matching problem on level graphs, which returns solutions whose size is at most one less than the size of an optimal solution. We then describe the Objective Branching Algorithm, a new algorithm for exactly solving the perfect matching problem with an additional equality constraint. The algorithm makes use of the fact that the weighted perfect matching problem without an additional side constraint is polynomially solvable. In the Appendix, experimental results of an implementation of the Objective Branching Algorithm are listed.
Globalization and the emergence of global value chains have not only changed the way we live, but also the way economists study international economics. These changes are visible in various areas and dimension. This dissertation deals " mostly empirically " with some of these issues related to global value chains. It starts by critically examining the political economy forces determining the occurrence and the extent of trade liberalization conditions in World Bank lending agreements. The focal point is whether these are affected by the World Bank- most influential member countries. Afterwards, the thesis moves on to describe trade of the European Union member countries at each stage of the value chain. The description is based on a new classification of goods into parts, components and final products as well as a newly developed measure describing the average level of development of a countries trading partners. This descriptive exercise is followed by critically examining discrepancies between gross trade and trade in value added with respect to comparative advantage. A gravity model is employed to contrast results when studying the institutional determinants of comparative advantage. Finally, the thesis deals with determinants of regional location choices for foreign direct investment. The analysis is based on a theoretical new economic geography model and employs a newly developed index that accounts for the presence of potentially all suppliers and buyers at all stages of the value chain.
Floods are hydrological extremes that have enormous environmental, social and economic consequences.The objective of this thesis was a contribution to the implementation of a processing chain that integrates remote sensing information into hydraulic models. Specifically, the aim was to improve water elevation and discharge simulations by assimilating microwave remote sensing-derived flood information into hydraulic models. The first component of the proposed processing chain is represented by a fully automated flood mapping algorithm that enables the automated, objective, and reliable flood extent extraction from Synthetic Aperture Radar images, providing accurate results in both rural and urban regions. The method operates with minimum data requirements and is efficient in terms of computational time. The map obtained with the developed algorithm is still subject to uncertainties, both introduced by the flood mapping algorithm and inherent in the image itself. In this work, particular attention was given to image uncertainty deriving from speckle. By bootstrapping the original satellite image pixels, several synthetic images were generated and provided as input to the developed flood mapping algorithm. From the analysis performed on the mapping products, speckle uncertainty can be considered as a negligible component of the total uncertainty. In the final step of the proposed processing chain real event water elevations, obtained from satellite observations, were assimilated in a hydraulic model with an adapted version of the Particle Filter, modified to work with non-Gaussian distribution of observations. To deal with model structure error and possibly biased observations, a global and a local weight variant of the Particle Filter were tested. The variant to be preferred depends on the level of confidence that is attributed to the observations or to the model. This study also highlighted the complementarity of remote sensing derived and in-situ data sets. An accurate binary flood map represents an invaluable product for different end users. However, deriving from this binary map additional hydraulic information, such as water elevations, is a way of enhancing the value of the product itself. The derived data can be assimilated into hydraulic models that will fill the gaps where, for technical reasons, Earth Observation data cannot provide information, also enabling a more accurate and reliable prediction of flooded areas.
In the first part of this work we generalize a method of building optimal confidence bounds provided in Buehler (1957) by specializing an exhaustive class of confidence regions inspired by Sterne (1954). The resulting confidence regions, also called Buehlerizations, are valid in general models and depend on a designated statistic'' that can be chosen according to some desired monotonicity behaviour of the confidence region. For a fixed designated statistic, the thus obtained family of confidence regions indexed by their confidence level is nested. Buehlerizations have furthermore the optimality property of being the smallest (w.r.t. set inclusion) confidence regions that are increasing in their designated statistic. The theory is eventually applied to normal, binomial, and exponential samples. The second part deals with the statistical comparison of pairs of diagnostic tests and establishes relations 1. between the sets of lower confidence bounds, 2. between the sets of pairs of comparable lower confidence bounds, and 3. between the sets of admissible lower confidence bounds in various models for diverse parameters of interest.
1.The Discursive Construction of Black Masculinity: Intersections of Race, Gender, and Sexuality
1.1.The Plight of Black Men: A History of Lynchings and Castrations
1.2.The Discursive Construction of the Black Man as Otherrn
1.3.Black Corporeality and the Scopic Regime of Racism
2. Ralph Ellison's 'Invisible man'
2.1.Invisible Black Men: Between Emasculation and Hypermasculinityrn
2.2.Transcending Invisibility
In recent years, the study of dynamical systems has developed into a central research area in mathematics. Actually, in combination with keywords such as "chaos" or "butterfly effect", parts of this theory have been incorporated in other scientific fields, e.g. in physics, biology, meteorology and economics. In general, a discrete dynamical system is given by a set X and a self-map f of X. The set X can be interpreted as the state space of the system and the function f describes the temporal development of the system. If the system is in state x ∈ X at time zero, its state at time n ∈ N is denoted by f^n(x), where f^n stands for the n-th iterate of the map f. Typically, one is interested in the long-time behaviour of the dynamical system, i.e. in the behaviour of the sequence (f^n(x)) for an arbitrary initial state x ∈ X as the time n increases. On the one hand, it is possible that there exist certain states x ∈ X such that the system behaves stably, which means that f^n(x) approaches a state of equilibrium for n→∞. On the other hand, it might be the case that the system runs unstably for some initial states x ∈ X so that the sequence (f^n(x)) somehow shows chaotic behaviour. In case of a non-linear entire function f, the complex plane always decomposes into two disjoint parts, the Fatou set F_f of f and the Julia set J_f of f. These two sets are defined in such a way that the sequence of iterates (f^n) behaves quite "wildly" or "chaotically" on J_f whereas, on the other hand, the behaviour of (f^n) on F_f is rather "nice" and well-understood. However, this nice behaviour of the iterates on the Fatou set can "change dramatically" if we compose the iterates from the left with just one other suitable holomorphic function, i.e. if we consider sequences of the form (g∘f^n) on D, where D is an open subset of F_f with f(D)⊂ D and g is holomorphic on D. The general aim of this work is to study the long-time behaviour of such modified sequences. In particular, we will prove the existence of holomorphic functions g on D having the property that the behaviour of the sequence of compositions (g∘f^n) on the set D becomes quite similarly chaotic as the behaviour of the sequence (f^n) on the Julia set of f. With this approach, we immerse ourselves into the theory of universal families and hypercyclic operators, which itself has developed into an own branch of research. In general, for topological spaces X, Y and a family {T_i: i ∈ I} of continuous functions T_i:X→Y, an element x ∈ X is called universal for the family {T_i: i ∈ I} if the set {T_i(x): i ∈ I} is dense in Y. In case that X is a topological vector space and T is a continuous linear operator on X, a vector x ∈ X is called hypercyclic for T if it is universal for the family {T^n: n ∈ N}. Thus, roughly speaking, universality and hypercyclicity can be described via the following two aspects: There exists a single object which allows us, via simple analytical operations, to approximate every element of a whole class of objects. In the above situation, i.e. for a non-linear entire function f and an open subset D of F_f with f(D)⊂ D, we endow the space H(D) of holomorphic functions on D with the topology of locally uniform convergence and we consider the map C_f:H(D)→H(D), C_f(g):=g∘f|_D, which is called the composition operator with symbol f. The transform C_f is a continuous linear operator on the Fréchet space H(D). In order to show that the above-mentioned "nice" behaviour of the sequence of iterates (f^n) on the set D ⊂ F_f can "change dramatically" if we compose the iterates from the left with another suitable holomorphic function, our aim consists in finding functions g ∈ H(D) which are hypercyclic for C_f. Indeed, for each hypercyclic function g for C_f, the set of compositions {g∘f^n|_D: n ∈ N} is dense in H(D) so that the sequence of compositions (g∘f^n|_D) is kind of "maximally divergent" " meaning that each function in H(D) can be approximated locally uniformly on D via subsequences of (g∘f^n|_D). This kind of behaviour stands in sharp contrast to the fact that the sequence of iterates (f^n) itself converges, behaves like a rotation or shows some "wandering behaviour" on each component of F_f. To put it in a nutshell, this work combines the theory of non-linear complex dynamics in the complex plane with the theory of dynamics of continuous linear operators on spaces of holomorphic functions. As far as the author knows, this approach has not been investigated before.
Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most important variables in hydrological studies. In the ET process, energy exchange and water transfer are involved. ET consists of transpiration and evaporation. The amount of plants transpiration dominates in ET. Especially in the forest regions, the ratio of transpiration to ET is in general 80-90 %. Meteorological variables, vegetation properties, precipitation and soil moisture are critical influence factors for ET generation. The study area is located in the forest area of Nahe catchment (Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany). The Nahe catchment is highly wooded. About 54.6 % of this area is covered by forest, with deciduous forest and coniferous forest are two primary types. A hydrological model, WaSiM-ETH, was employed for a long-term simulation from 1971-2003 in the Nahe catchment. In WaSiM-ETH, the potential evapotranspiration (ETP) was firstly calculated by the Penman-Monteith equation, and subsequently reduced according to the soil water content to obtain the actual evapotranspiration (ETA). The Penman-Monteith equation has been widely used and recommended for ETP estimation. The difficulties in applying this equation are the high demand of ground-measured meteorological data and the determination of surface resistance. A method combined remote sensing images with ground-measured meteorological data was also used to retrieve the ETA. This method is based on the surface properties such as surface albedo, fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and land surface temperature (LST) to obtain the latent heat flux (LE, corresponding to ETA) through the surface energy balance equation. LST is a critical variable for surface energy components estimation. It was retrieved from the TM/ETM+ thermal infrared (TIR) band. Due to the high-quality and cloudy-free requirements for TM/ETM+ data selection as well as the overlapping cycle of TM/ETM+ sensor is 16 days, images on only five dates are available during 1971-2003 (model ran) " May 15, 2000, July 05, 2001, July 19, August 04 and September 21 in 2003. It is found that the climate conditions of 2000, 2001 and 2003 are wet, medium wet and dry, respectively. Therefore, the remote sensing-retrieved observations are noncontinuous in a limited number over time but contain multiple climate conditions. Aerodynamic resistance and surface resistance are two most important parameters in the Penman-Monteith equation. However, for forest area, the aerodynamic resistance is calculated by a function of wind speed in the model. Since transpiration and evaporation are separately calculated by the Penman-Monteith equation in the model, the surface resistance was divided into canopy surface resistance rsc and soil surface resistance rse. rsc is related to the plants transpiration and rse is related to the bare soil evaporation. The interception evaporation was not taken into account due to its negligible contribution to ET rate under a dry-canopy (no rainfall) condition. Based on the remote sensing-retrieved observations, rsc and rse were calibrated in the WaSiM-ETH model for both forest types: for deciduous forest, rsc = 150 sm−1, rse = 250 sm−1; for coniferous forest, rsc = 300 sm−1, rse = 650 sm−1. We also carried out sensitivity analysis on rsc and rse. The appropriate value ranges of rsc and rse were determined as (annual maximum): for deciduous forest, [100,225] sm−1 for rsc and [50,450] sm−1 for rse; for coniferous forest, [225,375] sm−1 for rsc and [350,1200] sm−1 for rse. Due to the features of the observations that are in a limited number but contain multiple climate conditions, the statistical indices for model performance evaluation are required to be sensitive to extreme values. In this study, boxplots were found to well exhibit the model performance at both spatial and temporal scale. Nush-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), percent bias (PBIAS), mean bias error (MBE), mean variance of error distribution (S2d), index of agreement (d), root mean square error (RMSE) were found as appropriate statistical indices to provide additional evaluation information to the boxplots. The model performance can be judged as satisfactory if NSE > 0.5, RSR ≤ 0.7, PBIAS < -±12, MBE < -±0.45, S2d < 1.11, d > 0.79, RMSE < 0.97. rsc played a more important role than rse in ETP and ETA estimation by the Penman-Monteith equation, which is attributed to the fact that transpiration dominates in ET. The ETP estimation was found the most correlated to the relative humidity (RH), followed by air temperature (T), relative sunshine duration (SSD) and wind speed (WS). Under wet or medium wet climate conditions, ETA estimation was found the most correlated to T, followed by RH, SSD and WS. Under a water-stress condition, there were very small correlations between ETA and each meteorological variable.
The last decades of stress research have yielded substantial advancements highlighting the importance of the phenomenon for basic psychological functions as well as physical health and well-being. Progress in stress research heavily relies on the availability of suitable and well validated laboratory stressors. Appropriate laboratory stressors need to be able to reliably provoke a response in the relevant parameters and be applicable in different research settings or experimental designs. This thesis focuses on the Cold Pressor Test (CPT) as a stress induction technique. Three published experiments are presented that show how the advantages of the CPT can be used to test stress effects on memory processes and how some of its disadvantages can be met by a simple modification that retains its feasibility and validity. The first experiment applies the CPT in a substantial sample to investigate the consolidation effects of post-learning sympathetic arousal. Stressed participants with high increases in heart rate during the CPT showed enhanced memory performance one day after learning compared to both the warm water control group and low heart rate responders. This finding suggests that beta-adrenergic activation elicited shortly after learning enhances memory consolidation and that the CPT induced heart rate response is a predictor for this effect. Moreover, the CPT proved to be an appropriate stressor to test hypothesis about endogenous adrenergic effects on memory processes. The second experiment addresses known practical limitations of the standard dominant hand CPT protocol. A bilateral feet CPT modification is presented, the elicited neuroendocrine stress response assessed and validated against the standard CPT in a within-subjects design. The bilateral feet CPT elicited a substantial neuroendocrine stress response. Moreover, with the exception of blood pressure responses, all stress parameters were enhanced compared to the standard CPT. This shows that the bilateral feet CPT is a valid alternative to the standard CPT. The third experiment further validates the bilateral feet CPT and its corresponding control procedure by employing it in a typical application scenario. Specifically, the bilateral feet CPT was used to modulate retrieval of event files in a distractor-response binding paradigm that required lateralized bimanual responses. Again, the bilateral feet CPT induced significant increases in heart rate, blood pressure and cortisol, no such increases could be observed in the warm water control condition. Moreover, stressed participants showed diminished retrieval compared to controls. These results provide further evidence for the feasibility and validity of the bilateral feet CPT and its warm water control procedure. Together the experiments presented here highlight the usefulness of the CPT as a tool in psychophysiological stress research. It is especially well suited to test hypothesis concerning stress effects on memory processes and its applicability can be further increased by the bilateral feet modification.
Climate change and habitat fragmentation modify the natural habitat of many wetland biota and lead to new compositions of biodiversity in these ecosystems. While the direct effects of climate are often well known, indirect effects due to biotic interactions remain poorly understood. The water meadow grasshopper, Chorthippus montanus, is a univoltine habitat specialist, which is adapted to permanently moist habitats. Land use change and drainage led to highly fragmented populations of this generally flightless species. In large parts of the Palaearctic Ch. montanus occurs sympatrically with its widespread congener, the meadow grasshopper Chorthippus parallelus. Due to their close relationship and their similar songs, hybridization is likely to occur in syntopic populations. Such a species pair of a habitat specialist and a habitat generalist represents an ideal model system to examine the role of ongoing climate change and an accumulation of extreme climatic events on the life history strategies, population dynamics and inter-specific interactions. In Chapter I a laboratory experiment was conducted to identify the impact of environmental factors on intra-specific life-history traits of Ch. montanus. Like other Orthoptera species, Ch. montanus follows a converse temperature size rule. In line with the dimorphic niche hypothesis, which states that sexual size dimorphism evolved in response to the different sexual reproductive roles, both sexes showed different responses to increasing density at lower temperatures. Males attained smaller body sizes at high densities, whereas females had a prolonged development time. This is the first evidence for a sex-specific phenotypic plasticity in Ch. montanus. Females benefit from the prolonged development as their reproductive success depends on the size and number of egg clutches they may produce. By contrast, the reproductive success of males depends on the chance to fertilize virgin females, which increases with faster development. This may become a disadvantage for Ch. montanus as an intraspecific phenology shift may increase hybridization risk with the sibling species. Despite the widespread assumption that hybridization between two sympatric species is rare due to complete reproductive barriers, the genetic analyses of 16 populations (Chapter II) provided evidence for wide prevalence of hybridization between both species in the wild. As no complete admixture was found in the examined population, it is assumed that hybridization only occurs in ecotones between wetlands and drier parts. Reproductive barriers (habitat isolation, behavior, phenology) seem to prevent the genetic swamping of Ch. montanus populations. Although a behavioral experiment showed that mate choice presents an important reproductive barrier between both species, the experiment also revealed that reproductive barriers could be altered by environmental change (e.g. increasing heterospecific frequency). Chapter III analyzes the impact of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and interspecific hybridization. A mark-recapture analysis combined with weather records over five years provides evidence that the embryonic development in Ch. montanus is vulnerable to extreme climatic events. Strong population declines in Ch. montanus lead to a disequilibrium between Ch. montanus and Ch. parallelus populations and increases the risk of hybridization. The highest hybridization risk was found in the first weeks of a season, when both species had an overlapping phenology. Furthermore, hybrids were generally localized at the edge of the Ch. montanus distribution with higher heterospecific encounter probabilities. The hybridization rate reached up to 19.6%. The genetic analyses in Chapter II and III show that hybridization differentially affects specialists and generalists. While generalists may benefit from hybridization by an increasing genetic diversity, such a positive correlation was not found for Ch. montanus. The results underline the importance of reproductive barriers for the co-existence of these sympatric species. However, climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances alter reproductive barriers and promote hybridization, which may threaten small populations by genetic displacement. As anthropogenic hybridization is recognized as a major threat to biodiversity, it should be considered in environmental law and policy. In Chapter IV the role of hybrids and hybridization in three levels of law and the historical backgrounds of hybrids becoming a part of legal instruments is analyzed. Due to legal uncertainties and the complexity of this topic a legal assessment of hybrids is challenging and argues for species-specific approaches. Nonetheless, existing legal norms provide a suitable basis, but need to be specified. Finally, this chapter discusses different opportunities for the management of hybrids and hybridization in a conservation perspective and their necessity.
Service innovation has increasingly gained acknowledgement to contribute to economic growth and well-being. Despite this increased relevance in practice, service innovation is a developing research field. To advance literature on service innovation, this work analyzes with a qualitative study how firms manage service innovation activities in their organization differently. In addition, it evaluates the influence of top management commitment and corporate service innovativeness on service innovation capabilities of a firm and their implications for firm-level performance by conducting a quantitative study. Accordingly, the main overall research questions of this dissertation are: 1.) How and why do firms manage service innovation activities in their organization differently? 2.) What influence do top management commitment and corporate service innovativeness have on service innovation capabilities of a firm and what are the implications for firm-level performance? To respond to the first research question the way firms manage service innovation activities in their organization is investigated and by whom and how service innovations are developed. Moreover, it is examined why firms implement their service innovation activities differently. To achieve this a qualitative empirical study is conducted which included 22 semi-structured interviews with 15 firms in the sectors of construction, financial services, IT services, and logistics. Addressing the second research question, the aim is to improve the understanding about factors that enhance firm-level performance through service innovations. Deploying a dynamic capabilities perspective, a quantitative study is performed which underlines the importance of service innovation capabilities. More specifically, a theoretical framework is developed that proposes a positive relationship of top management commitment and corporate service innovativeness with service innovation capabilities and a positive relationship between service innovation capabilities and the firm-level performance indicators market performance, competitive advantage, and efficiency. A survey with double respondents from 87 companies from the sectors construction, financial services, IT services, and logistics was conducted to test the proposed theoretical framework by applying partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM).
Part-time entrepreneurship has become increasingly popular and is a rather new field of research. Two important research topics are addressed in this dissertation: (a) the impact of culture on part-time and full-time entrepreneurship and (b) the motivational aspects of the transition from part-time to full-time entrepreneurship. Specifically, this dissertation advances prior research by highlighting the direct and indirect differential impact of macro-level societal culture on part-time and full-time entrepreneurship. Gender egalitarianism, uncertainty avoidance and future orientation have a significantly stronger impact on full-time than on part-time entrepreneurship. Furthermore the moderating impact of societal culture on micro-level relationships for both forms of entrepreneurship is explored. The age-old and well-established relationship between education and entrepreneurial activity is moderated by different forms of collectivism for part-time and full-time entrepreneurship. Regarding the motivation of part-time entrepreneurs to transition to full-time entrepreneurship, the entrepreneurial motives of self-realization and independence are significantly positively associated with the transition, whereas the entrepreneurial motives of income supplementation and recognition are significantly negatively associated with the transition. This dissertation advances academic research by indicating conceptual differences between part-time and full-time entrepreneurship in a multi country setting and by showing that both forms of entrepreneurship are impacted through different cultural mechanisms. Based on the findings, policy makers can identify the direct and indirect impact of societal culture on part-time and full-time entrepreneurship. As a result, policy makers can better target support and transition programs to foster entrepreneurial activity.
This study examines the relationship between media content, its production, and its reception in Japanese popular culture with the example of the so-called yuri ("lily") genre that centers on representations of intimate relationships between female characters. Based on contemporary genre theory, which posits that genres are not inherent properties of texts, the central question of this study is how the yuri genre is discursively produced in Japan. To examine this question, the study takes a variety of sources into consideration: Firstly, it discusses ten exemplary texts from the 1910s to 2010s that in the Japanese discourse on the yuri genre are deemed the milestone texts of the yuri genre's historical development (Hana monogatari, Otome no minato, Secret Love, Shiroi heya no futari, BishÅjo senshi Sailor Moon, Maria-sama ga miteru, ShÅjo Sect, Aoi hana, Yuru yuri, and Yuri danshi). Secondly, interviews with ten editors working for Japanese manga magazines shed light on their assessment of the yuri genre. Finally, the results of an online survey among Japanese fans of the yuri genre, which returned 1,352 completed questionnaires, question hitherto assumptions about the fans and their reasons for liking the yuri genre. The central argument of this study is that the yuri genre is for the most part constructed not through assignments on part of the genre's producers but through interpretations on part of the genre's fans. The intimacy portrayed in the texts ranges from "friendship" to "love," and often the ideas of "innocence" and "beauty" are emphasized. Nevertheless, the formation of the yuri genre occurs outside the bounds of the texts, most importantly in fan works, i.e. derivative texts created by fans. The actual content of the originals merely serves as a starting point for these interpretations. Located at the intersection of Japanese studies, cultural studies, media studies, and sociology, this study contributes to our understanding of contemporary Japanese popular culture by showing the mutual dependencies between media content, production, and reception. It provides a deeper look at these processes through first-hand accounts of both producers and fans of the yuri genre.
Death is perceived as a severe threat to the self. Although it is certain that everyone has to die, people usually don't think about the finiteness of their life. Everything reminding of death is ignored, rationalized and death-related thoughts and fears are pushed out of mind (TMT; Pyszczynski et al., 1999). However, people differ in their ability to regulate negative affect and to access their self-system (Kuhl, 2001). As death is assumed to arouse existential fears, the ability to regulate such fears is particularly important, higher self-access could be relevant in defending central personal values. This thesis aimed at showing existential fears under mortality salience and effects of self-regulation of affect under mortality salience. In two studies (Chapter 2) implicit negative affect under mortality salience was demonstrated. An additional study (Chapter 3) shows the effects of self-regulation on implicit negative affect, whereas four studies in Chapter 4 displayed differences in self-access under mortality salience depending on people- ability of self-regulating negative affect.
Financing of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Europe - Financing Patterns and 'Crowdfunding'
(2015)
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a vital role for the innovativeness, economic growth and competitiveness of Europe. One of the most pressing problems of SMEs is access to finance to ensure their survival and growth. This dissertation uses both quantitative and qualitative exploratory research methods and increases with its holistic approach the transparency in SME financing. The results of a cluster analysis including 12,726 SMEs in 28 European countries reveal that SME financing in Europe is not homogenous but that different financing patterns exist which differ according to the number of financing instruments used and the combinations thereof. Furthermore, the SME financing types can be profiled according to their firm-, product-, industry- and country-specific characteristics. The results of this analysis provide some support for prior findings that smaller, younger and innovative SMEs suffer from a financing gap which cannot be closed with traditional financing instruments. One alternative to close this financing gap is crowdfunding. Even though crowdfunding has shown tremendous growth rates over the past few years, little is known about the determinants of this financing alternative. This dissertation systematically analyses the existing scientific literature on crowdfunding as an alternative in SME financing and reveals existing research gaps. Afterwards, the focus is on the role of investor communication as a way to reduce information asymmetries of the crowd in equity-based crowdfunding. The results of 24 interviews with market participants in equity-based crowdfunding reveal that crowd investors seem to replace personal contacts with alternative ways of communicating, which can be characterized as pseudo-personal (i.e., by using presentation videos, social media and investor relations channels). In addition, it was found that third party endorsements (e.g., other crowd investors, professional investors, customers and platforms) reduce the information asymmetries of crowd investors and hence, increase the likelihood of their investment.
In politics and economics, and thus in the official statistics, the precise estimation of indicators for small regions or parts of populations, the so-called Small Areas or domains, is discussed intensively. The design-based estimation methods currently used are mainly based on asymptotic properties and are thus reliable for large sample sizes. With small sample sizes, however, this design based considerations often do not apply, which is why special model-based estimation methods have been developed for this case - the Small Area methods. While these may be biased, they often have a smaller mean squared error (MSE) as the unbiased design based estimators. In this work both classic design-based estimation methods and model-based estimation methods are presented and compared. The focus lies on the suitability of the various methods for their use in official statistics. First theory and algorithms suitable for the required statistical models are presented, which are the basis for the subsequent model-based estimators. Sampling designs are then presented apt for Small Area applications. Based on these fundamentals, both design-based estimators and as well model-based estimation methods are developed. Particular consideration is given in this case to the area-level empirical best predictor for binomial variables. Numerical and Monte Carlo estimation methods are proposed and compared for this analytically unsolvable estimator. Furthermore, MSE estimation methods are proposed and compared. A very popular and flexible resampling method that is widely used in the field of Small Area Statistics, is the parametric bootstrap. One major drawback of this method is its high computational intensity. To mitigate this disadvantage, a variance reduction method for parametric bootstrap is proposed. On the basis of theoretical considerations the enormous potential of this proposal is proved. A Monte Carlo simulation study shows the immense variance reduction that can be achieved with this method in realistic scenarios. This can be up to 90%. This actually enables the use of parametric bootstrap in applications in official statistics. Finally, the presented estimation methods in a large Monte Carlo simulation study in a specific application for the Swiss structural survey are examined. Here problems are discussed, which are of high relevance for official statistics. These are in particular: (a) How small can the areas be without leading to inappropriate or to high precision estimates? (b) Are the accuracy specifications for the Small Area estimators reliable enough to use it for publication? (c) Do very small areas infer in the modeling of the variables of interest? Could they cause thus a deterioration of the estimates of larger and therefore more important areas? (d) How can covariates, which are in different levels of aggregation be used in an appropriate way to improve the estimates. The data basis is the Swiss census of 2001. The main results are that in the author- view, the use of small area estimators for the production of estimates for areas with very small sample sizes is advisable in spite of the modeling effort. The MSE estimates provide a useful measure of precision, but do not reach in all Small Areas the level of reliability of the variance estimates for design-based estimators.
The Role of Dopamine and Acetylcholine as Modulators of Selective Attention and Response Speed
(2015)
The principles of top-down and bottom-up processing are essential to cognitive psychology. At their broadest, most general definition, they denote that processing can be driven either by the salience of the stimulus input or by individual goals and strategies. Selective top-down attention, specifically, consists in the deliberate prioritizing of stimuli that are deemed goal-relevant, while selective bottom-up attention relies on the automatic allocation of attention to salient stimuli (Connor, Egeth, & Yantis, 2004; Schneider, Schote, Meyer, & Frings, 2014). Variations within neurotransmitter systems can modulate cognitive performance in a domain-specific fashion (Greenwood, Fossella, & Parasuraman, 2005). Noudoost and Moore (2011a) proposed that the influence of the dopaminergic neurotransmitter system on selective top-down attention might be greater than the influence of this system on selective bottom-up attention; likewise, they assumed that the cholinergic neurotransmitter system might be more important for selective bottom-up than top-down attention. To test this hypothesis, naturally occurring variations within the two neurotransmitter systems were assessed. Five polymorphisms were selected; two of the dopaminergic system (the COMT Val158Met polymorphism and the DAT1 polymorphism) and three of the cholinergic system (the CHRNA4 rs1044396 polymorphism, the CHRNA5 rs3841324 polymorphism, and the CHRNA5 rs16969968 polymorphism). It was tested whether these polymorphisms modulated the performance in tasks of selective top-down attention (a Stroop task and a Negative priming task) and in a task of selective bottom-up attention (a Posner-Cuing task). Indeed, the dopaminergic polymorphisms influenced selective top-down attention, but exerted no effects on bottom-up attention. This aligned with the hypothesis proposed by Noudoost and Moore (2011a). In contrast, the cholinergic polymorphisms were not found to modulate selective bottom-up attention. The three cholinergic polymorphisms, however, affected the general response speed in the Stroop task, Negative priming task, and Posner-Cuing task (irrespective of attentional processing). In sum, the findings of this study provide strong indications that the dopaminergic system modulates selective top-down attention, while the cholinergic system is highly relevant for the general speed of information processing.
The distractor-response binding effect (Frings & Rothermund, 2011; Frings, Rothermund, & Wentura, 2007; Rothermund, Wentura, & De Houwer, 2005) is based on the idea that irrelevant information will be integrated with the response to the relevant stimuli in an episodic memory trace. The immediate re-encounter of any aspect of this saved episode " be it relevant or irrelevant " can lead to retrieval of the whole episode. As a consequence, the previously executed and now retrieved response may influencing the response to the current relevant stimulus. That is, the current response may either be facilitated or be impaired by the retrieved response, depending on whether it is compatible or incompatible to the currently demanded response. Previous research on this kind of episodic retrieval focused on the influence on action control. I examined if distractor response binding also plays a role in decision making in addition to action control. To this end I adapted the distractor-to-distractor priming paradigm (Frings et al., 2007) and conducted nine experiments in which participants had to decide as fast as possible which disease a fictional patient suffered from. To infer the correct diagnosis, two cues were presented; one did not give any hint for a disease (the irrelevant cue), whereas the other did (the relevant cue). Experiments 1a to 1c showed that the distractor-response binding effect is present in deterministic decision situations. Further, experiments 2a and 2b indicate that distractor-response binding also influences decisions under uncertainty. Finally, experiments 3a to 3d were conducted to test some constraints and underlying mechanisms of the distractor-response binding effect in decision making under uncertainty. In sum, these nine experiments provide strong evidence that distractor-response binding influences decision making.
Stress related disorders increase continuously. It is not yet clear if stress also promotes breast cancer. This dissertation provides an analyses of the current state of research and focuses on the significance of pre-/postnatal stress factors and chronic stress. The derived hypotheses are empirically examined on breast cancer patients. The clinical study investigates the links between those factors and prognosis and outcome.
This thesis deals with economic aspects of employees' sickness. In addition to the classical case of sickness absence, in which an employee is completely unable to work and hence stays at home, there is the case of sickness presenteeism, in which the employee comes to work despite being sick. Accordingly, the thesis at hand covers research on both sickness states, absence and presenteeism. The first section covers sickness absence and labour market institutions. Chapter 2 presents theoretical and empirical evidence that differences in the social norm against benefit fraud, so-called benefit morale, can explain cross country diversity in the generosity of statutory sick pay entitlements between developed countries. In our political economy model, a stricter benefit morale reduces the absence rate, with counteracting effects on the politically set sick pay replacement rate. On the one hand, less absence caused by a stricter norm, makes the tax-financed insurance cheaper, leading to the usual demand side effect and hence to more generous sick pay entitlements. On the other hand, being less likely to be absent due to a stricter norm, the voters prefer a smaller fee over more insurance. We document both effects in a sample of 31 developed countries, capturing the years from 1981 to 2010. In Chapter 3 we investigate the relationship between the existence of works councils and illness-related absence and its consequences for plants. Using individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we find that the existence of a works council is positively correlated with the incidence and the annual duration of absence. Additionally, linked employer-employee data (LIAB) suggests that employers are more likely to expect personnel problems due to absence in plants with a works council. In western Germany, we find significant effects using a difference-in-differences approach, which can be causally interpreted. The second part of this thesis covers two studies on sickness presenteeism. In Chapter 4, we empirically investigate the determinants of the annual duration of sickness presenteeism using the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). Work autonomy, workload and tenure are positively related to the number of sickness presenteeism days, while a good working environment comes with less presenteeism. In Chapter 5 we theoretically and empirically analyze sickness absence and presenteeism behaviour with a focus on their interdependence. Specifically, we ask whether work-related factors lead to a substitutive, a complementary or no relationship between sickness absence and presenteeism. In other words, we want to know whether changes in absence and presenteeism behaviour incurred by work-related characteristics point in opposite directions (substitutive), the same direction (complementary), or whether they only affect either one of the two sickness states (no relationship). Our theoretical model shows that the relationship between sickness absence and presenteeism with regard to work-related characteristics is not necessarily of a substitutive nature. Instead, a complementary or no relationship can emerge as well. Turning to the empirical investigation, we find that only one out of 16 work-related factors, namely the supervisor status, leads to a substitutive relationship between absence and presenteeism. Few of the other determinants are complements, while the large majority is either related to sickness absence or presenteeism.
Chapter 2: Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study examines the relation-ship between immigrant residential segregation and immigrants" satisfaction with the neighbor-hood. The estimates show that immigrants living in segregated areas are less satisfied with the neighborhood. This is consistent with the hypothesis that housing discrimination rather than self-selection plays an important role in immigrant residential segregation. Our result holds true even when controlling for other influences such as household income and quality of the dwelling. It also holds true in fixed effects estimates that account for unobserved time-invariant influences. Chapter 3: Using survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study shows that immigrants living in segregated residential areas are more likely to report discrimination because of their ethnic background. This applies to both segregated areas where most neighbors are immigrants from the same country of origin as the surveyed person and segregated areas where most neighbors are immigrants from other countries of origin. The results suggest that housing discrimination rather than self-selection plays an important role in immigrant residential segregation. Chapter 4: Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and administrative data from 1996 to 2009, I investigate the question whether or not right-wing extremism of German residents is affected by the ethnic concentration of foreigners living in the same residential area. My results show a positive but insignificant relationship between ethnic concentration at the county level and the probability of extreme right-wing voting behavior for West Germany. However, due to potential endogeneity issues, I additionally instrument the share of foreigners in a county with the share of foreigners in each federal state (following an approach of Dustmann/Preston 2001). I find evidence for the interethnic contact theory, predicting a negative relationship between foreign-ers" share and right-wing voting. Moreover, I analyze the moderating role of education and the influence of cultural traits on this relationship. Chapter 5: Using data from the Socio-Economic Panel from 1998 to 2009 and administrative data on regional ethnic diversity, I show that ethnic diversity inhibits significantly people- political interest and participation in political organizations in West Germany. People seem to isolate themselves from political participation if exposed to more ethnic diversity which is particularly relevant with respect to the ongoing integration process of the European Union and the increasing transfer of legislative power from the national to European level. The results are robust if an instrumental variable strategy suggested by Dustmann and Preston (2001) is used to take into account that ethnic diversity measured on a local spatial level could be endogenous due to residential sorting. Interestingly, participation in non-political organizations is positively affected by ethnic diversity if selection bias is corrected for.
The classic Capital Asset Pricing Model and the portfolio theory suggest that investors hold the market portfolio to diversify idiosyncratic risks. The theory predicts that expected return of assets is positive and that reacts linearly on the overall market. However, in reality, we observe that investors often do not have perfectly diversified portfolios. Empirical studies find that new factors influence the deviation from the theoretical optimal investment. In the first part of this work (Chapter 2) we study such an example, namely the influence of maximum daily returns on subsequent returns. Here we follow ideas of Bali et al. (2011). The goal is to find cross-sectional relations between extremely positive returns and expected average returns. We take account a larger number of markets worldwide. Bali et al. (2011) report with respect to the U.S. market a robust negative relation between MAX (the maximum daily return) and the expected return in the subsequent time. We extent substantially their database to a number of other countries, and also take more recent data into account (until end of 2009). From that we conclude that the relation between MAX and expected returns is not consistent in all countries. Moreover, we test the robustness of the results of Bali et al. (2011) in two time-periods using the same data from CRSP. The results show that the effect of extremely positive returns is not stable over time. Indeed we find a negative cross-sectional relation between the extremely positive returns and the average returns for the first half of the time series, however, we do not find significant effects for the second half. The main results of this chapter serve as a basis for an unpublished working paper Yuan and Rieger (2014b). While in Chapter 2 we have studied factors that prevent optimal diversification, we consider in Chapter 3 and 4 situations where the optimal structure of diversification was previously unknown, namely diversification of options (or structured financial products). Financial derivatives are important additional investment form with respect to diversification. Not only common call and put options, but also structured products enable investors to pursue a multitude of investment strategies to improve the risk-return profile. Since derivatives become more and more important, diversification of portfolios with dimension of derivatives is of particularly practical relevance. We investigate the optimal diversification strategies in connection with underlying stocks for classical rational investors with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). In particular, we apply Monte Carlo method based on the Black-Scholes model and the Heston model for stochastic volatility to model the stock market processes and the pricing of the derivatives. Afterwards, we compare the benchmark portfolio which consists of derivatives on single assets with derivatives on the index of these assets. First we compute the utility improvement of an investment in the risk-free assets and plain-vanilla options for CRRA investors in various scenarios. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to several kinds of structured products, in particular capital protected notes (CPNs), discount certificates (DCs) and bonus certificates (BCs). We find that the decision of an investor between these two diversification strategies leads to remarkable differences. The difference in the utility improvement is influenced by risk-preferences of investors, stock prices and the properties of the derivatives in the portfolio. The results will be presented in Chapter 3 and are the basis for a yet unpublished working paper Yuan and Rieger (2014a). To check furthermore whether underlyings of structured products influence decisions of investors, we discuss explicitly the utility gain of a stock-based product and an index-based product for an investor whose preferences are described by cumulative prospect theory (CPT) (Chapter 4, compare to Yuan (2014)). The goal is that to investigate the dependence of structured products on their underlying where we put emphasis on the difference between index-products and single-stock-products, in particular with respect to loss-aversion and mental accounting. We consider capital protected notes and discount certificates as examples, and model the stock prices and the index of these stocks via Monte Carlo simulations in the Black-Scholes framework. The results point out that market conditions, particularly the expected returns and volatility of the stocks play a crucial role in determining the preferences of investors for stock-based CPNs and index-based CPNs. A median CPT investor prefers the index-based CPNs if the expected return is higher and the volatility is lower, while he prefers the stock-based CPNs in the other situation. We also show that index-based DCs are robustly more attractive as compared to stock-based DCs for CPT investors.
Every day we are exposed to a large set of appetitive food cues, mostly of high caloric, high carbohydrate content. Environmental factors like food cue exposition can impact eating behavior, by triggering anticipatory endocrinal responses and reinforcing the reward value of food. Additionally, it has been shown that eating behavior is largely influence by neuroendocrine factors. Energy homeostasis is of great importance for survival in all animal species. It is challenged under the state of food deprivation which is considered to be a metabolic stressor. Interestingly, the systems regulating stress and food intake share neural circuits. Adrenal glucocorticoids, as cortisol, and the pancreatic hormone insulin have been shown to be crucial to maintain catabolic and anabolic balance. Cortisol and insulin can cross the blood-brain barrier and interact with receptors distributed throughout the brain, influencing appetite and eating behavior. At the same time, these hormones have an important impact on the stress response. The aim of the current work is to broaden the knowledge on reward related food cue processing. With that purpose, we studied how food cue processing is influenced by food deprivation in women (in different phases of the menstrual cycle) and men. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of the stress/metabolic hormones, insulin and cortisol, at neural sites important for energy metabolism and in the processing of visual food cues. The Chapter I of this thesis details the underlying mechanisms of the startle response and its application in the investigation of food cue processing. Moreover, it describes the effects of food deprivation and of the stress-metabolic hormones insulin and cortisol in reward related processing of food cues. It explains the rationale for the studies presented in Chapter II-IV and describes their main findings. A general discussion of the results and recommendations for future research is given. In the study described in Chapter II, startle methodology was used to study the impact of food deprivation in the processing of reward related food cues. Women in different phases of the menstrual cycle and men were studied, in order to address potential effects of sex and menstrual cycle. All participants were studied either satiated or food deprived. Food deprivation provoked enhanced acoustic startle (ASR) response during foreground presentation of visual food cues. Sex and menstrual cycle did not influence this effect. The startle pattern towards food cues during fasting can be explained by a frustrative nonreward effect (FNR), driven by the impossibility to consume the exposed food. In Chapter III, a study is described, which was carried out to explore the central effects of insulin and cortisol, using continuous arterial spin labeling to map cerebral blood flow patterns. Following standardized periods of fasting, male participants received either intranasal insulin, oral cortisol, both, or placebo. Intranasal insulin increased resting regional cerebral blood flow in the putamen and insular cortex, structures that are involved in the regulation of eating behavior. Neither cortisol nor interaction effects were found. These results demonstrate that insulin exerts an action in metabolic centers during resting state, which is not affected by glucocorticoids. The study described in Chapter IV uses a similar pharmacological manipulation as the one presented in Chapter III, while assessing processing of reward related food cues through the startle paradigm validated in Chapter II. A sample of men was studied during short-term food deprivation. Considering the importance of both cortisol and insulin in glucose metabolism, food pictures were divided by glycemic index. Cortisol administration enhanced ASR during foreground presentation of "high glycemic" food pictures. This result suggests that cortisol provokes an increase in reward value of high glycemic food cues, which is congruent with previous research on stress and food consumption. This thesis gives support to the FNR hypothesis towards food cues during states of deprivation. Furthermore, it highlights the potential effects of stress related hormones in metabolism-connected neuronal structures, and in the reward related mechanisms of food cue processing. In a society marked by increased food exposure and availability, alongside with increased stress, it is important to better understand the impact of food exposition and its interaction with relevant hormones. This thesis contributes to the knowledge in this field. More research in this direction is needed.
The present study covers the period from the late-ninth to the early-sixteenth centuries. Within this period, the late-thirteenth to mid-fourteenth centuries marked the decisive turning point, shaped more by attitudes and actions among the Christian majority than among Jewish agents. Our findings indicate an intensification of anti-Jewish tendencies, rooted in religious developments in Western Christendom. According to circumstances, however, these tendencies had a very varying impact across time and space. The frequent religious and ecclesiastical reform movements of Western Europe offer cases in point. In the 'German' Empire north of the Alps the monastic reforms of Saint Maximin and Gorze were by no means confined to the realm of monasticism; they were essential for shaping the historical circumstances in which the foundations of Ashkenazic Judaism were laid in the tenth and early-eleventh centuries. The concept of 'honor' was used by leading ecclesiastics such as bishop Rudiger of Speyer in 1084 to justify the settlement of Jews, but also by civic authorities such as those of Regensburg later on. It is significant for the long-term tendency, therefore, that the late-medieval expulsions from cities like Trier, Cologne, and Regensburg were eventually also legitimized by reference to the idea of honor.
Das erste Kapitel "ECOWAS" capability and potential to overcome constraints to growth and poverty reduction of its member states" diskutiert die Analyse wirtschaftlicher und sozialer Barrieren für ökonomisches Wachstum " eine der Hauptelemente für Entwicklungs- und Armutsreduktionsstrategien in Entwicklungsländern. Die Form der länderspezifischen Analyse von Wachstumsbarrieren wurde nach dem Scheitern der auf alle Länder generalisierten Entwicklungsstrategie des Washington Consensus insbesondere durch den Ansatz der "Growth Diagnostics" der Harvard Professoren Hausman, Rodrik und Velasco eingeführt. Es zeigt sich jedoch, dass bisher der Fokus rein auf den länderspezifischen Analysen bzw. Strategieentwicklungen liegt. Diese Arbeit erweiterte die Diskussion auf die regionale Ebene, indem es beispielhaft an der Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) die länderspezifischen Wachstumsbarrieren mit den regionalen Wachstumsbarrieren vergleicht. Dies erfolgt mittels einer Darstellung der in Studien und Strategien bereits identifizierten, länderspezifischen Wachstumsbarrieren in den jeweiligen Ländern sowie mit der Auswertung der regionalen Strategien der ECOWAS. Dazu wird ermittelt, inwieweit auf der regionalen Ebene auch messbare Ergebnisse bei der Bekämpfung von Wachstumsbarrieren erzielt werden. Es zeigt sich, dass ,trotz der wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Diversität der Region, die ECOWAS den Großteil der in den Ländern identifizierten Wachstumsbarrieren ebenfalls auflistet und darüber hinaus sogar mit messbaren Ergebnissen dazu beiträgt, Veränderungen des Status Quo zu erreichen. Die Erweiterung des Ansatzes der Growth Diagnostics auf die regionale Ebene sowie die Erweiterung um das vergleichende Element von länderspezifischen und regionalen Wachstumsbarrieren zeigen sich als praktikabler Weg, Entwicklungsstrategien auf regionaler Ebene zu prüfen und subsidiär weiterzuentwickeln. Das zweite Kapitel "Simplifying evaluation of potential causalities in development projects using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA)" diskutiert die Methode der qualitativen komperativen Analyse (QCA) als Evaluierungsmethodik für Projekte der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit. Hierbei stehen die adäquate Messung sowie die verständliche Darstellung der Wirkung von Entwicklungszusammenarbeit im Vordergrund. Dies ist ein Beitrag zu der intensiv geführten Diskussion, wie Wirkung von Hilfe in Entwicklungsländern gemessen und daraus für weitere Projekte gelernt werden kann. Mit der beispielhaften Anwendung der QCA auf einen Datensatz der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit im Senegal wird erstmalig diese Methode für die Entwicklungszusammenarbeit in der Praxis angewandt. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf der Überprüfung von bestimmten Programmtheorien, d.h. der Annahme bestimmter Zusammenhänge zwischen eingesetzten Mitteln, äußeren Umständen und den Projektergebnissen bei der Implementierung von Projekten. Während solche Programmtheorien in dem Großteil der Projektskizzen der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit enthalten sind, werden die wenigsten dieser Programmtheorien geprüft. Diese Arbeit zeigt QCA als eine effiziente Methode für diese Überprüfung. Eine eindeutige Bestätigung oder Falsifizierung dieser Theorien ist mittels dieser Methodik möglich. Dazu können die Ergebnisse bei den beiden einfacheren Formen der QCA, der crisp-set sowie der multi-value QCA, leicht nachvollziehbar vermittelt werden. Des Weiteren zeigt die Arbeit, dass QCA ebenfalls die Weiterentwicklung einer Programmtheorie ermöglicht, allerdings ist diese Weiterentwicklung nur begrenzt effizient und stark von den vorliegenden Daten sowie der Datenstruktur abhängig. Die Arbeit zeigt somit das Potential der QCA insbesondere für den Test von Programmtheorien auf und stellt die praktische Anwendung für mögliche Replizierung beispielhaft dar. Das dritte und letzte Kapitel der Doktorarbeit "The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model" analysiert den türkischen Handel, um die Veränderungen der letzten Jahrzehnte aufzuzeigen und daran zu diskutieren, inwieweit sich die Türkei als aufstrebendes Schwellenland von den bestehenden Handelsstrukturen loslöst. Diese Arbeit ist ein Beitrag zur Diskussion der sich Verschiebenden Machtkonstellationen durch das wirtschaftliche Aufholen der Schwellenländer. Bei der Türkei ist diese Diskussion zusätzlich interessant, da die Frage, ob die Türkei sich von der westlichen Welt, Nordamerika und Europa, abwendet, berücksichtigt wird. Mittels Dummy-Variablen für verschiedene Regionen in einem Gravitätsmodell werden die türkischen Handelsdaten zuerst insgesamt und nach Sektoren analysiert und die Veränderungen über verschieden Perioden des türkischen Außenhandels betrachtet. Es zeigt sich, dass in den türkischen Handelsbeziehungen eine Regionalisierung und eine Diversifizierung der Handelspartner stattfinden. Allerdings geht dies nicht mit einer Abkehr von westlichen Handelspartnern einher.
The influence of affect on vocal parameters has been well investigated in speech portrayed by actors, but little is known about affect expression in more natural or authentic speech behavior. This is partly due to the difficulty of generating speech samples that represent authentic expression of speaker affect. The present work investigates the influence of speaker affect on the vocal fundamental frequency (F0) in comparatively authentic speech samples. Three well-documented psychophysiological research methods were applied for the induction of affective states in German native speakers in order to obtain speech samples with authentic affect expression: the Cold Pressor Test (CPT), the Stroop Color-Word Test (SCWT) and the presentation of slides from the International Affective Pictures System (IAPS). The here reported results show that the influence of affect on F0 is differentially modulated by psychophysiological processes as well as socio-cultural influences. They also indicate that this approach may be useful for future research and further to gain a deeper understanding of authentic vocal affect expression. Moreover, F0 may constitute an additional non-invasive, easy to obtain measure for the established psychophysiological research methodology.