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Surveys are commonly tailored to produce estimates of aggregate statistics with a desired level of precision. This may lead to very small sample sizes for subpopulations of interest, defined geographically or by content, which are not incorporated into the survey design. We refer to subpopulations where the sample size is too small to provide direct estimates with adequate precision as small areas or small domains. Despite the small sample sizes, reliable small area estimates are needed for economic and political decision making. Hence, model-based estimation techniques are used which increase the effective sample size by borrowing strength from other areas to provide accurate information for small areas. The paragraph above introduced small area estimation as a field of survey statistics where two conflicting philosophies of statistical inference meet: the design-based and the model-based approach. While the first approach is well suited for the precise estimation of aggregate statistics, the latter approach furnishes reliable small area estimates. In most applications, estimates for both large and small domains based on the same sample are needed. This poses a challenge to the survey planner, as the sampling design has to reflect different and potentially conflicting requirements simultaneously. In order to enable efficient design-based estimates for large domains, the sampling design should incorporate information related to the variables of interest. This may be achieved using stratification or sampling with unequal probabilities. Many model-based small area techniques require an ignorable sampling design such that after conditioning on the covariates the variable of interest does not contain further information about the sample membership. If this condition is not fulfilled, biased model-based estimates may result, as the model which holds for the sample is different from the one valid for the population. Hence, an optimisation of the sampling design without investigating the implications for model-based approaches will not be sufficient. Analogously, disregarding the design altogether and focussing only on the model is prone to failure as well. Instead, a profound knowledge of the interplay between the sample design and statistical modelling is a prerequisite for implementing an effective small area estimation strategy. In this work, we concentrate on two approaches to address this conflict. Our first approach takes the sampling design as given and can be used after the sample has been collected. It amounts to incorporate the survey design into the small area model to avoid biases stemming from informative sampling. Thus, once a model is validated for the sample, we know that it holds for the population as well. We derive such a procedure under a lognormal mixed model, which is a popular choice when the support of the dependent variable is limited to positive values. Besides, we propose a three pillar strategy to select the additional variable accounting for the design, based on a graphical examination of the relationship, a comparison of the predictive accuracy of the choices and a check regarding the normality assumptions.rnrnOur second approach to deal with the conflict is based on the notion that the design should allow applying a wide variety of analyses using the sample data. Thus, if the use of model-based estimation strategies can be anticipated before the sample is drawn, this should be reflected in the design. The same applies for the estimation of national statistics using design-based approaches. Therefore, we propose to construct the design such that the sampling mechanism is non-informative but allows for precise design-based estimates at an aggregate level.
Optimal Control of Partial Integro-Differential Equations and Analysis of the Gaussian Kernel
(2018)
An important field of applied mathematics is the simulation of complex financial, mechanical, chemical, physical or medical processes with mathematical models. In addition to the pure modeling of the processes, the simultaneous optimization of an objective function by changing the model parameters is often the actual goal. Models in fields such as finance, biology or medicine benefit from this optimization step.
While many processes can be modeled using an ordinary differential equation (ODE), partial differential equations (PDEs) are needed to optimize heat conduction and flow characteristics, spreading of tumor cells in tissue as well as option prices. A partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) is a parital differential equation involving an integral operator, e.g., the convolution of the unknown function with a given kernel function. PIDEs occur for example in models that simulate adhesive forces between cells or option prices with jumps.
In each of the two parts of this thesis, a certain PIDE is the main object of interest. In the first part, we study a semilinear PIDE-constrained optimal control problem with the aim to derive necessary optimality conditions. In the second, we analyze a linear PIDE that includes the convolution of the unknown function with the Gaussian kernel.
In the present study a non-motion-stabilized scanning Doppler lidar was operated on board of RV Polarstern in the Arctic (June 2014) and Antarctic (December 2015– January 2016). This is the first time that such a system measured on an icebreaker in the Antarctic. A method for a motion correction of the data in the post-processing is presented.
The wind calculation is based on vertical azimuth display (VAD) scans with eight directions that pass a quality control. Additionally a method for an empirical signal-tonoise ratio (SNR) threshold is presented, which can be calculated for individual measurement set-ups. Lidar wind profiles are compared to total of about 120 radiosonde profiles and also to wind measurements of the ship.
The performance of the lidar measurements in comparison with radio soundings generally shows small root mean square deviation (bias) for wind speed of around 1ms-1(0.1ms-1) and for wind direction of around 10 (1). The post-processing of the non-motion-stabilized data shows comparably high quality to studies with motion-stabilized systems.
Two case studies show that a flexible change in SNR threshold can be beneficial for special situations. Further the studies reveal that short-lived low-level jets in the atmospheric boundary layer can be captured by lidar measurements with a high temporal resolution in contrast to routine radio soundings. The present study shows that a non-motionstabilized Doppler lidar can be operated successfully on an
icebreaker. It presents a processing chain including quality control tests and error quantification, which is useful for further measurement campaigns.
In the context of accelerated global socio-environmental change, the Water-Energy-Food Nexus has received increasing attention within science and international politics by promoting integrated resource governance. This study explores the scientific nexus debates from a discourse analytical perspective to reveal knowledge and power relations as well as geographical settings of nexus research. We also investigate approaches to socio-nature relations that influence nexus research and subsequent political implications. Our findings suggest that the leading nexus discourse is dominated by natural scientific perspectives and a neo-Malthusian framing of environmental challenges. Accordingly, the promoted cross-sectoral nexus approach to resource governance emphasizes efficiency, security, future sustainability, and poverty reduction. Water, energy, and food are conceived as global trade goods that require close monitoring, management and control, to be achieved via quantitative assessments and technological interventions. Within the less visible discourse, social scientific perspectives engage with the social, political, and normative elements of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus. These perspectives criticize the dominant nexus representation for itsmanagerial, neoliberal, and utilitarian approach to resource governance. The managerial framing is critiqued for masking power relations and social inequalities, while alternative framings acknowledge the political nature of resource governance and socio-nature relations. The spatial dimensions of the nexus debate are also discussed. Notably, the nexus is largely shaped by western knowledge, yet applied mainly in specific regions of the Global South. In order for the nexus to achieve integrative solutions for sustainability, the debate needs to overcome its current discursive and spatial separations. To this end, we need to engage more closely with alternative nexus discourses, embrace epistemic pluralism and encourage multi-perspective debates about the socio-nature relations we actually intend to promote.
Sample surveys are a widely used and cost effective tool to gain information about a population under consideration. Nowadays, there is an increasing demand not only for information on the population level but also on the level of subpopulations. For some of these subpopulations of interest, however, very small subsample sizes might occur such that the application of traditional estimation methods is not expedient. In order to provide reliable information also for those so called small areas, small area estimation (SAE) methods combine auxiliary information and the sample data via a statistical model.
The present thesis deals, among other aspects, with the development of highly flexible and close to reality small area models. For this purpose, the penalized spline method is adequately modified which allows to determine the model parameters via the solution of an unconstrained optimization problem. Due to this optimization framework, the incorporation of shape constraints into the modeling process is achieved in terms of additional linear inequality constraints on the optimization problem. This results in small area estimators that allow for both the utilization of the penalized spline method as a highly flexible modeling technique and the incorporation of arbitrary shape constraints on the underlying P-spline function.
In order to incorporate multiple covariates, a tensor product approach is employed to extend the penalized spline method to multiple input variables. This leads to high-dimensional optimization problems for which naive solution algorithms yield an unjustifiable complexity in terms of runtime and in terms of memory requirements. By exploiting the underlying tensor nature, the present thesis provides adequate computationally efficient solution algorithms for the considered optimization problems and the related memory efficient, i.e. matrix-free, implementations. The crucial point thereby is the (repetitive) application of a matrix-free conjugated gradient method, whose runtime is drastically reduced by a matrx-free multigrid preconditioner.
The changing views on the evolutionary relationships of extant Salamandridae (Amphibia: Urodela)
(2018)
The phylogenetic relationships among members of the family Salamandridae have been repeatedly investigated over the last 90 years, with changing character and taxon sampling. We review the changing composition and the phylogenetic position of salamandrid genera and species groups and add a new phylogeny based exclusively on sequences of nuclear genes. Salamandrina often changed its position depending on the characters used. It was included several times in a clade together with the primitive newts (Echinotriton, Pleurodeles, Tylototriton) due to their seemingly ancestral morphology. The latter were often inferred as a monophyletic clade. Respective monophyly was almost consistently established in all molecular studies for true salamanders (Chioglossa, Lyciasalamandra, Mertensiella, Salamandra), modern Asian newts (Cynops, Laotriton, Pachytriton, Paramesotriton) and modern New World newts (Notophthalmus, Taricha). Reciprocal non-monophyly has been established through molecular studies for the European mountain newts (Calotriton, Euproctus) and the modern European newts (Ichthyosaura, Lissotriton, Neurergus, Ommatotriton, Triturus) since Calotriton was identified as the sister lineage of Triturus. In pre-molecular studies, their respective monophyly had almost always been assumed, mainly because a complex courtship behaviour shared by their respective members. Our nuclear tree is nearly identical to a mito-genomic tree, with all but one node being highly supported. The major difference concerns the position of Calotriton, which is no longer nested within the modern European newts. This has implications for the evolution of courtship behaviour of European newts. Within modern European newts, Ichthyosaura and Lissotriton changed their position compared to the mito-genomic tree. Previous molecular trees based on seemingly large nuclear data sets, but analysed together with mitochondrial data, did not reveal monophyly of modern European newts since taxon sampling and nuclear gene coverage was too poor to obtain conclusive results. We therefore conclude that mitochondrial and nuclear data should be analysed on their own.
Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit einer komplexen Fragestellung: Wie geschieht der dynamische Umbau der sprachlichen Strukturen unter der Wirkung der innersprachlichen und außersprachlichen Parameter. Im Fokus der Forschung steht der Mechanismus des Werdens der Sprachstruktur, der hier als ein einziger Modus des Daseins der Sprache betrachtet wird. Als Material der Untersuchung dient die Operationalisierung der Bestandteile der verbalen Wortbildungsprozesse in der deutschen Sprache. Die Auswahl des verbalen Teils des Vokabulars ist dadurch bedingt, dass diese Wortart ein Zentralelement ist, das die ganze Sprachmaterie konsolidiert. Als einer der Schlüsselparameter gilt dabei der Frequenzfaktor, der bisher keinen einheitlichen Status in der Sprachtheorie bekommen hat. Die Suche nach dem Ursprung der Macht dieses Faktors führt unumgänglich über die Grenzen des Sprachsystems hinaus. Die Beobachtungen über das Verhalten des Frequenzfaktors in den Prozessen und Strukturen unterschiedlichster Natur lassen behaupten, dass wir es hier mit einem sehr komplexen Phänomen zu tun haben, das ein Bestandteil des allgemeinen kognitiven Anpassungsmechanismus des Menschen zur Umwelt ist. Als solcher ist er auch ein unveräußerlicher Aspekt der Semiose, des Sprachzeichens.
We will consider discrete dynamical systems (X,T) which consist of a state space X and a linear operator T acting on X. Given a state x in X at time zero, its state at time n is determined by the n-th iteration T^n(x). We are interested in the long-term behaviour of this system, that means we want to know how the sequence (T^n (x))_(n in N) behaves for increasing n and x in X. In the first chapter, we will sum up the relevant definitions and results of linear dynamics. In particular, in topological dynamics the notions of hypercyclic, frequently hypercyclic and mixing operators will be presented. In the setting of measurable dynamics, the most important definitions will be those of weakly and strongly mixing operators. If U is an open set in the (extended) complex plane containing 0, we can define the Taylor shift operator on the space H(U) of functions f holomorphic in U as Tf(z) = (f(z)- f(0))/z if z is not equal to 0 and otherwise Tf(0) = f'(0). In the second chapter, we will start examining the Taylor shift on H(U) endowed with the topology of locally uniform convergence. Depending on the choice of U, we will study whether or not the Taylor shift is weakly or strongly mixing in the Gaussian sense. Next, we will consider Banach spaces of functions holomorphic on the unit disc D. The first section of this chapter will sum up the basic properties of Bergman and Hardy spaces in order to analyse the dynamical behaviour of the Taylor shift on these Banach spaces in the next part. In the third section, we study the space of Cauchy transforms of complex Borel measures on the unit circle first endowed with the quotient norm of the total variation and then with a weak-* topology. While the Taylor shift is not even hypercyclic in the first case, we show that it is mixing for the latter case. In Chapter 4, we will first introduce Bergman spaces A^p(U) for general open sets and provide approximation results which will be needed in the next chapter where we examine the Taylor shift on these spaces on its dynamical properties. In particular, for 1<=p<2 we will find sufficient conditions for the Taylor shift to be weakly mixing or strongly mixing in the Gaussian sense. For p>=2, we consider specific Cauchy transforms in order to determine open sets U such that the Taylor shift is mixing on A^p(U). In both sections, we will illustrate the results with appropriate examples. Finally, we apply our results to universal Taylor series. The results of Chapter 5 about the Taylor shift allow us to consider the behaviour of the partial sums of the Taylor expansion of functions in general Bergman spaces outside its disc of convergence.
Salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) influences the perception of taste and texture, features both relevant in acquiring food liking and, with time, food preference. However, no studies have yet investigated the relationship between basal activity levels of sAA and food preference. We collected saliva from 57 volunteers (63% women) who we assessed in terms of their preference for different food items. These items were grouped into four categories according to their nutritional properties: high in starch, high in sugar, high glycaemic index, and high glycaemic load. Anthropometric markers of cardiovascular risk were also calculated. Our findings suggest that sAA influences food
preference and body composition in women. Regression analysis showed that basal sAA activity is inversely associated with subjective but not self-reported behavioural preference for foods high in sugar. Additionally, sAA and subjective preference are associated with anthropometric markers of cardiovascular risk. We believe that this pilot study points to this enzyme as an interesting candidate to consider among the physiological factors that modulate eating behaviour.
Ziel der Dissertation ist es, den Hochwasserschutz und das Management extremer Hoch-wasser für das Einzugsgebiet der Isar zu verbessern mit Hinblick darauf, wie sich vorhandene und neu zu schaffende Retentionsräume mit optimaler Wirkung für das gesamte Flusssystem einsetzen lassen. Dafür sind Kenntnisse über extreme Ereignisse und deren Auswirkung auf die betrachteten Einzugsgebiete notwendig. Großskalige Niederschläge in Mitteleuropa werden überwiegend durch Vb-artige Zugbahnen ausgelöst. Die Relevanz für Bayern zeigt die Auswertung des neuesten Kataloges der Vb-Zugbahnen für den Zeitraum 1959 bis 2015. In den Monaten April bis Oktober haben Vb-Zugbahnen zu ca. 30 % der beobachten Hochwasser beigetragen. Im Sommer führt sogar jedes zweite Vb-Tief zu Hochwasser. Im Donaueinzugsgebiet können 50 % der 20 größten Hochwasser direkt auf Vb-Zugbahnen zurückgeführt werden, weitere 25 % durch ähnliche Zugbahnen oder auf eine Vb aktiven Phase. Über die Hälfe der größten Hochwasser traten dabei in Bezug zu einer Serie von Vb-Tiefs auf. 60 % der Vb-Zugbahnen sind Teil einer Serie von Vb-Tiefs. Aus wiederkehrenden Niederschlägen persistenter Zugbahnen resultieren mehrgipflige Hochwasserwellen, die insbesondere für Rückhalteräume betrachtet werden müssen (DIN 19700). Die Detailuntersuchung erfolgt unter besonderer Beachtung der Untersuchungen zu den Vb-Zugbahnen. Das Isareinzugsgebiet mit 8900 km-² besitzt mit den Seen im Voralpenland große natürliche Retentionsräume und mit dem Sylvensteinspeicher im alpinen Einzugsgebiet den größten staatlichen Speicher Bayerns. Für die Wirkungsanalyse von gekoppelten Hoch-wasserrückhalteräumen in komplexen Einzugsgebieten müssen Ganglinien mit einem Nie-derschlag-Abfluss-Modell generiert werden, die den Wellenablauf des Hochwassers im ge-samten Einzugsgebiet repräsentieren. Die Dissertation analysiert, wie sich der Einsatz ver-schiedener Verfahren zur Vorgabe der Eingangsniederschläge auswirkt. Dabei liegt der Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung auf dem Niederschlagsverlauf. Es wird ein Verfahren zur Ableitung von Ganglinien aus standardisierten beobachteten Niederschlagsverläufen entwi-ckelt. Die Hochwasserganglinien, generiert aus synthetischen Niederschlagsverläufen der Bemessung, werden am Beispiel des Sylvensteinspeichers mit den drei größten abgelaufe-nen Hochwasserereignissen verglichen und diskutiert, ob mit dem neuen Verfahren die Cha-rakteristik der beobachten Hochwasser besser wiedergeben wird. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf der Wellenüberlagerung. Es kann für das ganze Gebiet gezeigt werden, dass die mit der neuen Methode standardisierten beobachteten Niederschlagsverläufe besser geeignet sind, die Wellenüberlagerung wiederzugeben, da zeitliche Unterschiede durch die Staueffekte an den Alpen berücksichtigt werden, wie sie bei Vb-Zugbahn geprägten Niederschlägen entste-hen. Es kann daher bei ähnlichen Fragestellungen empfohlen werden, diese Methode in der Praxis als Variante hinzuzuziehen, um die natürlichen Prozesse repräsentativer zu beschrei-ben. Für die Simulation mit dem N-A-Modell LARSIM werden die Unsicherheiten durch Varianten-rechnungen gezeigt. Es hat sich herausgestellt, dass nicht nur der Niederschlagsverlauf und die Vorbedingungen des Ereignisses eine große Auswirkung auf die Kalibrierung der Ab-flussbeiwerte im N-A-Modell haben, sondern auch das gewählte Flood-Routing-Verfahren und die Gerinnerauheit. Schließlich wird die Bewertung der potenziellen Standorte durchgeführt. Es wird berechnet, wo das Hochwasser zurückgehalten werden muss, um sowohl eine lokale Reduktion des Hochwasserscheitels, als auch gleichzeitig eine möglichst große Schutzwirkung für das Ge-samtsystem zu ermöglichen. Priorisiert werden Rückhaltestandorte, die praktisch umsetzbar sind und den größten Nutzen haben. Die Untersuchung einer Doppelwelle, die durch eine Serie von Vb-Zugbahnen entstehen kann, zeigt, wie die Einschätzung potenzieller Standorte verändern kann. Der alpine und zum Teil der voralpine Raum reagieren mit kurzen steilen Ganglinien und sind gegenüber Doppelwellen weniger sensitiv, weil kaum Wellenüberlagerung entsteht. Für den Sylvensteinspeicher, der im alpinen Raum liegt, können daher kurze Niederschlagspausen für eine schnelle Entlastung des Speicherraumes genutzt werden. Un-terhalb von Seen mit einem großen Retentionsvermögen erzeugen Doppelwellen aufgrund der langen Retentionsäste durch die Wellenüberlagerung deutlich höhere Abflüsse als Ein-zelwellen. Rückhalt an der oberen Isar ist unter diesen Kriterien am optimalsten. Empfohlene Maßnahmen - ohne Bauaufwand - konnten bereits umgesetzt werden und verbessern den Hochwasserschutz und das Hochwassermanagement an der Isar. Die Auswertungen zeigen, dass in den Monaten April, Mai, September und Oktober die Hochwasserereignisse in Folge von Vb-Zugbahnen im Zuge der Klimaveränderung häufiger und in den Sommermonaten extremer werden könnten.