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Survey data can be viewed as incomplete or partially missing from a variety of perspectives and there are different ways of dealing with this kind of data in the prediction and the estimation of economic quantities. In this thesis, we present two selected research contexts in which the prediction or estimation of economic quantities is examined under incomplete survey data.
These contexts are first the investigation of composite estimators in the German Microcensus (Chapters 3 and 4) and second extensions of multivariate Fay-Herriot (MFH) models (Chapters 5 and 6), which are applied to small area problems.
Composite estimators are estimation methods that take into account the sample overlap in rotating panel surveys such as the German Microcensus in order to stabilise the estimation of the statistics of interest (e.g. employment statistics). Due to the partial sample overlaps, information from previous samples is only available for some of the respondents, so the data are partially missing.
MFH models are model-based estimation methods that work with aggregated survey data in order to obtain more precise estimation results for small area problems compared to classical estimation methods. In these models, several variables of interest are modelled simultaneously. The survey estimates of these variables, which are used as input in the MFH models, are often partially missing. If the domains of interest are not explicitly accounted for in a sampling design, the sizes of the samples allocated to them can, by chance, be small. As a result, it can happen that either no estimates can be calculated at all or that the estimated values are not published by statistical offices because their variances are too large.
Coastal erosion describes the displacement of land caused by destructive sea waves,
currents or tides. Due to the global climate change and associated phenomena such as
melting polar ice caps and changing current patterns of the oceans, which result in rising
sea levels or increased current velocities, the need for countermeasures is continuously
increasing. Today, major efforts have been made to mitigate these effects using groins,
breakwaters and various other structures.
This thesis will find a novel approach to address this problem by applying shape optimization
on the obstacles. Due to this reason, results of this thesis always contain the
following three distinct aspects:
The selected wave propagation model, i.e. the modeling of wave propagation towards
the coastline, using various wave formulations, ranging from steady to unsteady descriptions,
described from the Lagrangian or Eulerian viewpoint with all its specialties. More
precisely, in the Eulerian setting is first a steady Helmholtz equation in the form of a
scattering problem investigated and followed subsequently by shallow water equations,
in classical form, equipped with porosity, sediment portability and further subtleties.
Secondly, in a Lagrangian framework the Lagrangian shallow water equations form the
center of interest.
The chosen discretization, i.e. dependent on the nature and peculiarity of the constraining
partial differential equation, we choose between finite elements in conjunction
with a continuous Galerkin and discontinuous Galerkin method for investigations in the
Eulerian description. In addition, the Lagrangian viewpoint offers itself for mesh-free,
particle-based discretizations, where smoothed particle hydrodynamics are used.
The method for shape optimization w.r.t. the obstacle’s shape over an appropriate
cost function, constrained by the solution of the selected wave-propagation model. In
this sense, we rely on a differentiate-then-discretize approach for free-form shape optimization
in the Eulerian set-up, and reverse the order in Lagrangian computations.
Behavioural traces from interactions with digital technologies are diverse and abundant. Yet, their capacity for theory-driven research is still to be constituted. In the present cumulative dissertation project, I deliberate the caveats and potentials of digital behavioural trace data in behavioural and social science research. One use case is online radicalisation research. The three studies included, set out to discern the state-of-the-art of methods and constructs employed in radicalization research, at the intersection of traditional methods and digital behavioural trace data. Firstly, I display, based on a systematic literature review of empirical work, the prevalence of digital behavioural trace data across different research strands and discern determinants and outcomes of radicalisation constructs. Secondly, I extract, based on this literature review, hypotheses and constructs and integrate them to a framework from network theory. This graph of hypotheses, in turn, makes the relative importance of theoretical considerations explicit. One implication of visualising the assumptions in the field is to systematise bottlenecks for the analysis of digital behavioural trace data and to provide the grounds for the genesis of new hypotheses. Thirdly, I provide a proof-of-concept for incorporating a theoretical framework from conspiracy theory research (as a specific form of radicalisation) and digital behavioural traces. I argue for marrying theoretical assumptions derived from temporal signals of posting behaviour and semantic meaning from textual content that rests on a framework from evolutionary psychology. In the light of these findings, I conclude by discussing important potential biases at different stages in the research cycle and practical implications.
Issues in Price Measurement
(2022)
This thesis focuses on the issues in price measurement and consists of three chapters. Due to outdated weighting information, a Laspeyres-based consumer price index (CPI) is prone to accumulating upward bias. Therefore, chapter 1 introduces and examines simple and transparent revision approaches that retrospectively address the source of the bias. They provide a consistent long-run time series of the CPI and require no additional information. Furthermore, a coherent decomposition of the bias into the contributions of individual product groups is developed. In a case study, the approaches are applied to a Laspeyres-based CPI. The empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions. The proposed revision approaches are adoptable not only to most national CPIs but also to other price-level measures such as the producer price index or the import and export price indices.
Chapter 2 is dedicated to the measurement of import and export price indices. Such indices are complicated by the impact of exchange rates. These indices are usually also compiled by some Laspeyres type index. Therefore, substitution bias is an issue. The terms of trade (ratio of export and import price index) are therefore also likely to be distorted. The underlying substitution bias accumulates over time. The present article applies a simple and transparent retroactive correction approach that addresses the source of the substitution bias and produces meaningful long-run time series of import and export price levels and, therefore, of the terms of trade. Furthermore, an empirical case study is conducted that demonstrates the efficacy and versatility of the correction approach.
Chapter 3 leaves the field of index revision and studies another issue in price measurement, namely, the economic evaluation of digital products in monetary terms that have zero market prices. This chapter explores different methods of economic valuation and pricing of free digital products and proposes an alternative way to calculate the economic value and a shadow price of free digital products: the Usage Cost Model (UCM). The goal of the chapter is, first of all, to formulate a theoretical framework and incorporate an alternative measure of the value of free digital products. However, an empirical application is also made to show the work of the theoretical model. Some conclusions on applicability are drawn at the end of the chapter.
Broadcast media such as television have spread rapidly worldwide in the last century. They provide viewers with access to new information and also represent a source of entertainment that unconsciously exposes them to different social norms and moral values. Although the potential impact of exposure to television content have been studied intensively in economic research in recent years, studies examining the long-term causal effects of media exposure are still rare. Therefore, Chapters 2 to 4 of this thesis contribute to the better understanding of long-term effects of television exposure.
Chapter 2 empirically investigates whether access to reliable environmental information through television can influence individuals' environmental awareness and pro-environmental behavior. Analyzing exogenous variation in Western television reception in the German Democratic Republic shows that access to objective reporting on environmental pollution can enhance concerns regarding pollution and affect the likelihood of being active in environmental interest groups.
Chapter 3 utilizes the same natural experiment and explores the relationship between exposure to foreign mass media content and xenophobia. In contrast to the state television broadcaster in the German Democratic Republic, West German television regularly confronted its viewers with foreign (non-German) broadcasts. By applying multiple measures for xenophobic attitudes, our findings indicate a persistent mitigating impact of foreign media content on xenophobia.
Chapter 4 deals with another unique feature of West German television. In contrast to East German media, Western television programs regularly exposed their audience to unmarried and childless characters. The results suggest that exposure to different gender stereotypes contained in television programs can affect marriage, divorce, and birth rates. However, our findings indicate that mainly women were affected by the exposure to unmarried and childless characters.
Chapter 5 examines the influence of social media marketing on crowd participation in equity crowdfunding. By analyzing 26,883 investment decisions on three German equity crowdfunding platforms, our results show that startups can influence the success of their equity crowdfunding campaign through social media posts on Facebook and Twitter.
In Chapter 6, we incorporate the concept of habit formation into the theoretical literature on trade unions and contribute to a better understanding of how internal habit preferences influence trade union behavior. The results reveal that such internal reference points lead trade unions to raise wages over time, which in turn reduces employment. Conducting a numerical example illustrates that the wage effects and the decline in employment can be substantial.
Stress gilt als zentrales Gesundheitsrisiko des 21. Jahrhunderts und wird in der Forschung als multidimensionales Konstrukt auf psychologischer und biologischer Ebene untersucht. Wäh-rend die subjektive Wahrnehmung von Stress nicht mit der biologischen Stressreaktivität zu-sammenhängen muss, ist der negative Einfluss stressassoziierter biologischer Prozesse auf Wohlbefinden und Gesundheit gut belegt. Bereits im Grundschulalter zeigen Kinder eine mit Erwachsenen vergleichbare Stressbelastung und gesundheitliche Folgen, Bewältigungsstrategien sind in diesem Alter allerdings noch nicht vollständig entwickelt. Präventionsprogramme im Grundschulalter sollen Kinder in ihren sich entwickelnden Stressbewältigungsfähigkeiten fördern, wobei sowohl emotionsfokussierte und problemorientierte Ansätze als auch soziale Unterstützung wichtige Faktoren darstellen könnten.
Das einleitende Literatur-Review evaluiert bisherige Stresspräventionsstudien und verdeutlicht, dass zwar die Wirksamkeit und Anwendbarkeit von mehrfaktoriellen Stresspräventionsprogrammen im Rahmen psychometrischer Erhebungen gezeigt werden konnten, biologische Prozesse in der Forschung bisher allerdings nicht erhoben und außer Acht gelassen wurden.
Die empirische Untersuchung in Studie 1 zeigt, dass eine multidimensionale psychobiologische Betrachtungsweise sinnvoll ist, indem sowohl die Psychometrie, als auch psychobiologische Prozesse der Stressreaktion miteinbezogen und die Auswirkungen von Stressprävention auf den verschiedenen Ebenen untersucht wurden. Zwei Kurzinterventionen wurden dazu miteinander verglichen und ihre Wirkung auf psychophysiologischen Ebenen (z.B. Kortisol, α-Amylase und Herzrate) in einem Prä-Post Design geprüft. Eine statistisch signifikante Abnahme psychophysiologischer Stressreaktivität, sowie stressassoziierter psychologischer Symptome verdeutlichte die multidimensionale Wirksamkeit von Stressmanagementtrainings.
Studie 2 wurde im Rahmen der Covid-19-Pandemie entworfen. Die in Studie 1 trainierten Kinder wurden mittels Online-Fragebogenerhebung mit einer Kontrollgruppe hinsichtlich ihrer Stressbelastung verglichen. Die Ergebnisse zeigten eine geringere Belastung und vermehrte günstige Bewältigungsstrategien trainierter Kinder im Vergleich zur Kontrollgruppe.
Diese Ergebnisse heben die Relevanz einer multidimensionalen Betrachtung kindlichen Stresses hervor. Es wurde gezeigt, dass Stresspräventionsprogramme auf den unterschiedlichen Ebenen der Stressreaktion wirken und sogar in gesamtgesellschaftlichen Krisensituationen stresspro-tektiv wirken können. Zukünftige Studien sollten Stresspräventionen im Grundschulalter psychophysiologisch evaluieren und deren Wirkung in Längsschnittstudien beurteilen, um das Verständnis der zugrundeliegenden Mechanismen zu verbessern.
Die endemischen Arganbestände in Südmarokko sind die Quelle des wertvollen Arganöls, sind aber durch bspw. Überweidung oder illegale Feuerholzgewinnung stark übernutzt. Aufforstungsmaßnahmen sind vorhanden, sind aber aufgrund von zu kurz angelegten Bewässerungs- und Schutzverträgen häufig nicht erfolgreich. Das Aufkommen von Neuwuchs ist durch das beinahe restlose Sammeln von Kernen kaum möglich, durch Fällen oder Absterben von Bäumen verringert sich die kronenüberdeckte Fläche und unbedeckte Flächen zwischen den Bäumen nehmen zu.
Die Entwicklung der Arganbestände wurde über den Zeitraum von 1972 und 2018 mit historischen und aktuellen Satellitenbildern untersucht, ein Großteil der Bäume hat sich in dieser Zeit kaum verändert. Zustandsaufnahmen von 2018 zeigten, dass viele dieser Bäume durch Überweidung und Abholzung nur als Sträucher wachsen und so in degradiertem Zustand stabil sind.
Trotz der Degradierung einiger Bäume zeigt sich, dass der Boden unter den Bäumen die höchsten Gehalte an organischer Bodensubstanz und Nährstoffen auf den Flächen aufweist, zwischen zwei Bäumen sind die Gehalte am niedrigsten. Der Einfluss des Baumes auf den Boden geht über die Krone hinaus in Richtung Norden durch Beschattung in der Mittagssonne, Osten durch Windverwehung von Streu und Bodenpartikeln und hangabwärts durch Verspülung von Material.
Über experimentelle Methoden unter und zwischen den Arganbäumen wurden Erkenntnisse zur Bodenerosion gewonnen. Die hydraulische Leitfähigkeit unter Bäumen ist um den Faktor 1,2-1,5 höher als zwischen den Bäumen, Oberflächenabflüsse und Bodenabträge sind unter den Bäumen etwas niedriger, bei degradierten Bäumen ähnlich den Bereichen zwischen den Bäumen. Die unterschiedlichen Flächenbeschaffenheiten wurden mit einem Windkanal untersucht und zeigten, dass gerade frisch gepflügte Flächen hohe Windemissionen verursachen, während Flächen mit hoher Steinbedeckung kaum von Winderosion betroffen sind.
Die Oberflächenabflüsse von den unterschiedlichen Flächentypen werden in die Vorfluter abgeleitet. Die Sedimentdynamik in diesen Wadis wird hauptsächlich von Niederschlag zwischen den Messungen, Einzugsgebiet und Wadilänge und kaum von den verschiedenen Landnutzungen beeinflusst.
Das Landschaftssystem Argan konnte über diesen Multi-Methodenansatz auf verschiedenen Ebenen analysiert werden.
Climate fluctuations and the pyroclastic depositions from volcanic activity both influence ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial and marine environments globally. These controlling factors are crucial for the evolution and fate of the pristine but fragile fjord ecosystem in the Magellanic moorlands (~53°S) of southernmost Patagonia, which is considered a critical hotspot for organic carbon burial and marine bioproductivity. At this active continental margin in the core zone of the southern westerly wind belt (SWW), frequent Plinian eruptions and the extremely variable, hyper-humid climate should have efficiently shaped ecosystem functioning and land-to-fjord mass transfer throughout the Late Holocene. However, a better understanding of the complex process network defining the biogeochemical cycling at this land-to-fjord continuum principally requires a detailed knowledge of substrate weathering and pedogenesis in the context of the extreme climate. Yet, research on soils, the ubiquitous presence of tephra and the associated chemical weathering, secondary mineral (trans)formation and organic matter (OM) turnover processes is rare in this remote region. This complicates an accurate reconstruction of the ecosystem´s potentially sensitive response to past environmental impacts, including the dynamics of Late Holocene land-to-fjord fluxes as a function of volcanic activity and strong hydroclimate variability.
Against this background, this PhD thesis aims to disentangle the controlling factors that modulate the terrigenous element mobilization and export mechanisms in the hyper-humid Patagonian Andes and assesses their significance for fjord primary productivity over the past 4.5 kyrs BP. For the first time, distinct biogeochemical characteristics of the regional weathering system serve as major criterion in paleoenvironmental reconstruction in the area. This approach includes broad-scale mineralogical and geochemical analyses of basement lithologies, four soil profiles, volcanic ash deposits, the non-karst stalagmite MA1 and two lacustrine sediment cores. In order to pay special attention to the possibly important temporal variations of pedosphere-atmosphere interaction and ecological consequences initiated by volcanic eruptions, the novel data were evaluated together with previously published reconstructions of paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental conditions.
The devastative high-tephra loading of a single eruption from Mt. Burney volcano (MB2 at 4.216 kyrs BP) sustainably transformed this vulnerable fjord ecosystem, while acidic peaty Andosols developed from ~2.5 kyrs BP onwards after the recovery from millennium-scale acidification. The special setting is dominated by most variable redox-pH conditions, profound volcanic ash weathering and intense OM turnover processes, which are closely linked and ultimately regulated by SWW-induced water-level fluctuations. Constant nutrient supply though sea spray deposition represents a further important control on peat accumulation and OM turnover dynamics. These extreme environmental conditions constrain the biogeochemical framework for an extended land-to-fjord export of leachates comprising various organic and inorganic colloids (i.e., Al-humus complexes and Fe-(hydr)oxides). Such tephra- and/or Andosol-sourced flux contains high proportions of terrigenous organic carbon (OCterr) and mobilized essential (micro)nutrients, e.g., bio-available Fe, that are beneficial for fjord bioproductivity. It can be assumed that this supply of bio-available Fe produced by specific Fe-(hydr)oxide (trans)formation processes from tephra components may outlast more than 6 kyrs and surpasses the contribution from basement rock weathering and glacial meltwaters. However, the land-to-fjord exports of OCterr and bio-available Fe occur mostly asynchronous and are determined by the frequency and duration of redox cycles in soils or are initiated by SWW-induced extreme weather events.
The verification of (crypto)tephra layers embedded stalagmite MA1 enabled the accurate dating of three smaller Late Holocene eruptions from Mt. Burney (MB3 at 2.291 kyrs BP and MB4 at 0.853 kyrs BP) and Aguilera (A1 at 2.978 kyrs BP) volcanoes. Irrespective of the improvement of the regional tephrochronology, the obtained precise 230Th/U-ages allowed constraints on the ecological consequences caused by these Plinian eruptions. The deposition of these thin tephra layers should have entailed a very beneficial short-term stimulation of fjord bioproductivity with bio-available Fe and other (micro)nutrients, which affected the entire area between 52°S and 53°S 30´, respectively. For such beneficial effects, the thickness of tephra deposited to this highly vulnerable peatland ecosystem should be below a threshold of 1 cm.
The Late Holocene element mobilization and land-to-fjord transport was mainly controlled by (i) volcanic activity and tephra thickness, (ii) SWW-induced and southern hemispheric climate variability and (iii) the current state of the ecosystem. The influence of cascading climate and environmental impacts on OCterr and Fe-(hydr)oxide fluxes to can be categorized by four individual, in part overlapping scenarios. These different scenarios take into account the previously specified fundamental biogeochemical mechanisms and define frequently recurring patterns of ecosystem feedbacks governing the land-to-fjord mass transfer in the hyper-humid Patagonian Andes on the centennial-scale. This PhD thesis provides first evidence for a primarily tephra-sourced, continuous and long-lasting (micro)nutrient fertilization for phytoplankton growth in South Patagonian fjords, which is ultimately modulated by variations in SWW-intensity. It highlights the climate sensitivity of such critical land-to-fjord element transport and particularly emphasizes the important but so far underappreciated significance of volcanic ash inputs for biogeochemical cycles at active continental margins.
Let K be a compact subset of the complex plane. Then the family of polynomials P is dense in A(K), the space of all continuous functions on K that are holomorphic on the interior of K, endowed with the uniform norm, if and only if the complement of K is connected. This is the statement of Mergelyan's celebrated theorem.
There are, however, situations where not all polynomials are required to approximate every f ϵ A(K) but where there are strict subspaces of P that are still dense in A(K). If, for example, K is a singleton, then the subspace of all constant polynomials is dense in A(K). On the other hand, if 0 is an interior point of K, then no strict subspace of P can be dense in A(K).
In between these extreme cases, the situation is much more complicated. It turns out that it is mostly determined by the geometry of K and its location in the complex plane which subspaces of P are dense in A(K). In Chapter 1, we give an overview of the known results.
Our first main theorem, which we will give in Chapter 3, deals with the case where the origin is not an interior point of K. We will show that if K is a compact set with connected complement and if 0 is not an interior point of K, then any subspace Q ⊂ P which contains the constant functions and all but finitely many monomials is dense in A(K).
There is a close connection between lacunary approximation and the theory of universality. At the end of Chapter 3, we will illustrate this connection by applying the above result to prove the existence of certain universal power series. To be specific, if K is a compact set with connected complement, if 0 is a boundary point of K and if A_0(K) denotes the subspace of A(K) of those functions that satisfy f(0) = 0, then there exists an A_0(K)-universal formal power series s, where A_0(K)-universal means that the family of partial sums of s forms a dense subset of A_0(K).
In addition, we will show that no formal power series is simultaneously universal for all such K.
The condition on the subspace Q in the main result of Chapter 3 is quite restrictive, but this should not be too surprising: The result applies to the largest possible class of compact sets.
In Chapter 4, we impose a further restriction on the compact sets under consideration, and this will allow us to weaken the condition on the subspace Q. The result that we are going to give is similar to one of those presented in the first chapter, namely the one due to Anderson. In his article “Müntz-Szasz type approximation and the angular growth of lacunary integral functions”, he gives a criterion for a subspace Q of P to be dense in A(K) where K is entirely contained in some closed sector with vertex at the origin.
We will consider compact sets with connected complement that are -- with the possible exception of the origin -- entirely contained in some open sector with vertex at the origin. What we are going to show is that if K\{0} is contained in an open sector of opening angle 2α and if Λ is some subset of the nonnegative integers, then the span of {z → z^λ : λ ϵ Λ} is dense in A(K) whenever 0 ϵ Λ and some Müntz-type condition is satisfied.
Conversely, we will show that if a similar condition is not satisfied, then we can always find a compact set K with connected complement such that K\{0} is contained in some open sector of opening angle 2α and such that the span of {z → z^λ : λ ϵ Λ} fails to be dense in A(K).
The present dissertation was developed to emphasize the importance of self-regulatory abilities and to derive novel opportunities to empower self-regulation. From the perspective of PSI (Personality Systems Interactions) theory (Kuhl, 2001), interindividual differences in self-regulation (action vs. state orientation) and their underlying mechanisms are examined in detail. Based on these insights, target-oriented interventions are derived, developed, and scientifically evaluated. The present work comprises a total of four studies which, on the one hand, highlight the advantages of a good self-regulation (e.g., enacting difficult intentions under demands; relation with prosocial power motive enactment and well-being). On the other hand, mental contrasting (Oettingen et al., 2001), an established self-regulation method, is examined from a PSI perspective and evaluated as a method to support individuals that struggle with self-regulatory deficits. Further, derived from PSI theory`s assumptions, I developed and evaluated a novel method (affective shifting) that aims to support individuals in overcoming self-regulatory deficits. Thereby affective shifting supports the decisive changes in positive affect for successful intention enactment (Baumann & Scheffer, 2010). The results of the present dissertation show that self-regulated changes between high and low positive affect are crucial for efficient intention enactment and that methods such as mental contrasting and affective shifting can empower self-regulation to support individuals to successfully close the gap between intention and action.
