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The state-of-the-art finite element software Plaxis 3D was applied in a real-world study site of the Turaida castle mound to investigate the slope stability of the mound and understand the mechanisms triggering landslides there. During the simulation, the stability of the castle mound was analysed and the most landslide-susceptible zones of hillslopes were determined. The 3D finite-element stability analysis has significant advantages over conventional 2D limit-equilibrium methods where locations of 2D stability sections are arbitrarily selected. Two modelling scenarios of the slope stability were elaborated considering deep-seated slides in bedrock and shallow landslides in the colluvial material of slopes. The model shows that shallow slides in colluvium are more probable. In the finite-element model, slope failure occurs along the weakest zone in colluvium, similarly to the situation observed in previous landslides in the study site. The physical basis of the model allows results to be obtained very close to natural conditions and delivers valuable insight in triggering mechanisms of landslides.
Intense, southward low-level winds are common in Nares Strait, between Ellesmere Island and northern Greenland. The steep topography along Nares Strait leads to channelling effects, resulting in an along-strait flow. This research study presents a 30-year climatology of the flow regime from simulations of the COSMO-CLM climate model. The simulations are available for the winter periods (November–April) 1987/88 to 2016/17, and thus, cover a period long enough to give robust long-term characteristics of Nares Strait. The horizontal resolution of 15 km is high enough to represent the complex terrain and the meteorological conditions realistically. The 30-year climatology shows that LLJs associated with gap flows are a climatological feature of Nares Strait. The maximum of the mean 10-m wind speed is around 12 m s-1 and is located at the southern exit of Smith Sound. The wind speed is strongly related to the pressure gradient. Single events reach wind speeds of 40 m s-1 in the daily mean. The LLJs are associated with gap flows within the narrowest parts of the strait under stably stratified conditions, with the main LLJ occurring at 100–250 m height. With increasing mountain Froude number, the LLJ wind speed and height increase. The frequency of strong wind events (>20 m s-1 in the daily mean) for the 10 m wind shows a strong interannual variability with an average of 15 events per winter. Channelled winds have a strong impact on the formation of the North Water polynya.
Introduction:In patients with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID),immunological response is compromised. Knowledge about COVID‐19 in CVIDpatients is sparse. We, here, synthesize current research addressing the level ofthreat COVID‐19posestoCVIDpatientsandthebest‐known treatments.
Method:Review of 14 publications.
Results:The number of CVID patients with moderate to severe (~29%) andcritical infection courses (~10%), and the number of fatal cases (~13%), areincreased compared to the general picture of COVID‐19 infection. However,this might be an overestimate. Systematic cohort‐wide studies are lacking, andasymptomatic or mild cases among CVID patients occur that can easily remainunnoticed. Regular immunoglobulin replacement therapy was administered inalmost all patients, potentially explaining why the numbers of critical and fatalcases were not higher. In addition, the application of convalescent plasma wasdemonstrated to have positive effects.
Conclusions:COVID‐19 poses an elevated threat to CVID patients. However,only systematic studies can provide robust information on the extent of thisthreat. Regular immunoglobulin replacement therapy is beneficial to combatCOVID‐19 in CVID patients, and best treatment after infection includes theuse of convalescent plasma in addition to common medication.
Natural hazards are diverse and uneven in time and space, therefore, understanding its complexity is key to save human lives and conserve natural ecosystems. Reducing the outputs obtained after each modelling analysis is key to present the results for stakeholders, land managers and policymakers. So, the main goal of this survey was to present a method to synthesize three natural hazards in one multi-hazard map and its evaluation for hazard management and land use planning. To test this methodology, we took as study area the Gorganrood Watershed, located in the Golestan Province (Iran). First, an inventory map of three different types of hazards including flood, landslides, and gullies was prepared using field surveys and different official reports. To generate the susceptibility maps, a total of 17 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) machine learning technique. The accuracy of the predictive models was evaluated by drawing receiver operating characteristic-ROC curves and calculating the area under the ROC curve-AUCROC. The MaxEnt model not only implemented superbly in the degree of fitting, but also obtained significant results in predictive performance. Variables importance of the three studied types of hazards showed that river density, distance from streams, and elevation were the most important factors for flood, respectively. Lithological units, elevation, and annual mean rainfall were relevant for detecting landslides. On the other hand, annual mean rainfall, elevation, and lithological units were used for gully erosion mapping in this study area. Finally, by combining the flood, landslides, and gully erosion susceptibility maps, an integrated multi-hazard map was created. The results demonstrated that 60% of the area is subjected to hazards, reaching a proportion of landslides up to 21.2% in the whole territory. We conclude that using this type of multi-hazard map may be a useful tool for local administrators to identify areas susceptible to hazards at large scales as we demonstrated in this research.
With the ongoing trend towards deep learning in the remote sensing community, classical pixel based algorithms are often outperformed by convolution based image segmentation algorithms. This performance was mostly validated spatially, by splitting training and validation pixels for a given year. Though generalizing models temporally is potentially more difficult, it has been a recent trend to transfer models from one year to another, and therefore to validate temporally. The study argues that it is always important to check both, in order to generate models that are useful beyond the scope of the training data. It shows that convolutional neural networks have potential to generalize better than pixel based models, since they do not rely on phenological development alone, but can also consider object geometry and texture. The UNET classifier was able to achieve the highest F1 scores, averaging 0.61 in temporal validation samples, and 0.77 in spatial validation samples. The theoretical potential for overfitting geometry and just memorizing the shape of fields that are maize has been shown to be insignificant in practical applications. In conclusion, kernel based convolutions can offer a large contribution in making agricultural classification models more transferable, both to other regions and to other years.
Energy transition strategies in Germany have led to an expansion of energy crop cultivation in landscape, with silage maize as most valuable feedstock. The changes in the traditional cropping systems, with increasing shares of maize, raised concerns about the sustainability of agricultural feedstock production regarding threats to soil health. However, spatially explicit data about silage maize cultivation are missing; thus, implications for soil cannot be estimated in a precise way. With this study, we firstly aimed to track the fields cultivated with maize based on remote sensing data. Secondly, available soil data were target-specifically processed to determine the site-specific vulnerability of the soils for erosion and compaction. The generated, spatially-explicit data served as basis for a differentiated analysis of the development of the agricultural biogas sector, associated maize cultivation and its implications for soil health. In the study area, located in a low mountain range region in Western Germany, the number and capacity of biogas producing units increased by 25 installations and 10,163 kW from 2009 to 2016. The remote sensing-based classification approach showed that the maize cultivation area was expanded by 16% from 7305 to 8447 hectares. Thus, maize cultivation accounted for about 20% of the arable land use; however, with distinct local differences. Significant shares of about 30% of the maize cultivation was done on fields that show at least high potentials for soil erosion exceeding 25 t soil ha−1 a−1. Furthermore, about 10% of the maize cultivation was done on fields that pedogenetically show an elevated risk for soil compaction. In order to reach more sustainable cultivation systems of feedstock for anaerobic digestion, changes in cultivated crops and management strategies are urgently required, particularly against first signs of climate change. The presented approach can regionally be modified in order to develop site-adapted, sustainable bioenergy cropping systems.
The parameterization of ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere interaction processes is a challenge for regional climate models (RCMs) of the Arctic, particularly for wintertime conditions, when small fractions of thin ice or open water cause strong modifications of the boundary layer. Thus, the treatment of sea ice and sub-grid flux parameterizations in RCMs is of crucial importance. However, verification data sets over sea ice for wintertime conditions are rare. In the present paper, data of the ship-based experiment Transarktika 2019 during the end of the Arctic winter for thick one-year ice conditions are presented. The data are used for the verification of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). In addition, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are used for the comparison of ice surface temperature (IST) simulations of the CCLM sea ice model. CCLM is used in a forecast mode (nested in ERA5) for the Norwegian and Barents Seas with 5 km resolution and is run with different configurations of the sea ice model and sub-grid flux parameterizations. The use of a new set of parameterizations yields improved results for the comparisons with in-situ data. Comparisons with MODIS IST allow for a verification over large areas and show also a good performance of CCLM. The comparison with twice-daily radiosonde ascents during Transarktika 2019, hourly microwave water vapor measurements of first 5 km in the atmosphere and hourly temperature profiler data show a very good representation of the temperature, humidity and wind structure of the whole troposphere for CCLM.
Laboratory landslide experiments enable the observation of specific properties of these natural hazards. However, these observations are limited by traditional techniques: frequently used high-speed video analysis and wired sensors (e.g. displacement). These techniques lead to the drawback that either only the surface and 2D profiles can be observed or wires confine the motion behaviour. In contrast, an unconfined observation of the total spatiotemporal dynamics of landslides is needed for an adequate understanding of these natural hazards.
The present study introduces an autonomous and wireless probe to characterize motion features of single clasts within laboratory-scale landslides. The Smartstone probe is based on an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and records acceleration and rotation at a sampling rate of 100 Hz. The recording ranges are ±16 g (accelerometer) and ±2000∘ s−1 (gyroscope). The plastic tube housing is 55 mm long with a diameter of 10 mm. The probe is controlled, and data are read out via active radio frequency identification (active RFID) technology. Due to this technique, the probe works under low-power conditions, enabling the use of small button cell batteries and minimizing its size.
Using the Smartstone probe, the motion of single clasts (gravel size, median particle diameter d50 of 42 mm) within approx. 520 kg of a uniformly graded pebble material was observed in a laboratory experiment. Single pebbles were equipped with probes and placed embedded and superficially in or on the material. In a first analysis step, the data of one pebble are interpreted qualitatively, allowing for the determination of different transport modes, such as translation, rotation and saltation. In a second step, the motion is quantified by means of derived movement characteristics: the analysed pebble moves mainly in the vertical direction during the first motion phase with a maximal vertical velocity of approx. 1.7 m s−1. A strong acceleration peak of approx. 36 m s−2 is interpreted as a pronounced hit and leads to a complex rotational-motion pattern. In a third step, displacement is derived and amounts to approx. 1.0 m in the vertical direction. The deviation compared to laser distance measurements was approx. −10 %. Furthermore, a full 3D spatiotemporal trajectory of the pebble is reconstructed and visualized supporting the interpretations. Finally, it is demonstrated that multiple pebbles can be analysed simultaneously within one experiment. Compared to other observation methods Smartstone probes allow for the quantification of internal movement characteristics and, consequently, a motion sampling in landslide experiments.
The study analyzes the long-term trends (1998–2019) of concentrations of the air pollutants ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) as well as meteorological conditions at forest sites in German midrange mountains to evaluate changes in O3 uptake conditions for trees over time at a plot scale. O3 concentrations did not show significant trends over the course of 22 years, unlike NO2 and NO, whose concentrations decreased significantly since the end of the 1990s. Temporal analyses of meteorological parameters found increasing global radiation at all sites and decreasing precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and wind speed at most sites (temperature did not show any trend). A principal component analysis revealed strong correlations between O3 concentrations and global radiation, VPD, and temperature. Examination of the atmospheric water balance, a key parameter for O3 uptake, identified some unusually hot and dry years (2003, 2011, 2018, and 2019). With the help of a soil water model, periods of plant water stress were detected. These periods were often in synchrony with periods of elevated daytime O3 concentrations and usually occurred in mid and late summer, but occasionally also in spring and early summer. This suggests that drought protects forests against O3 uptake and that, in humid years with moderate O3 concentrations, the O3 flux was higher than in dry years with higher O3 concentrations.
Although gravitropism forces trees to grow vertically, stems have shown to prefer specific orientations. Apart from wind deforming the tree shape, lateral light can result in prevailing inclination directions. In recent years a species dependent interaction between gravitropism and phototropism, resulting in trunks leaning down-slope, has been confirmed, but a terrestrial investigation of such factors is limited to small scale surveys. ALS offers the opportunity to investigate trees remotely. This study shall clarify whether ALS detected tree trunks can be used to identify prevailing trunk inclinations. In particular, the effect of topography, wind, soil properties and scan direction are investigated empirically using linear regression models. 299.000 significantly inclined stems were investigated. Species-specific prevailing trunk orientations could be observed. About 58% of the inclination and 19% of the orientation could be explained by the linear models, while the tree species, tree height, aspect and slope could be identified as significant factors. The models indicate that deciduous trees tend to lean down-slope, while conifers tend to lean leeward. This study has shown that ALS is suitable to investigate the trunk orientation on larger scales. It provides empirical evidence for the effect of phototropism and wind on the trunk orientation.