Refine
Keywords
This dissertation examines the relevance of regimes for stock markets. In three research articles, we cover the identification and predictability of regimes and their relationships to macroeconomic and financial variables in the United States.
The initial two chapters contribute to the debate on the predictability of stock markets. While various approaches can demonstrate in-sample predictability, their predictive power diminishes substantially in out-of-sample studies. Parameter instability and model uncertainty are the primary challenges. However, certain methods have demonstrated efficacy in addressing these issues. In Chapter 1 and 2, we present frameworks that combine these methods meaningfully. Chapter 3 focuses on the role of regimes in explaining macro-financial relationships and examines the state-dependent effects of macroeconomic expectations on cross-sectional stock returns. Although it is common to capture the variation in stock returns using factor models, their macroeconomic risk sources are unclear. According to macro-financial asset pricing, expectations about state variables may be viable candidates to explain these sources. We examine their usefulness in explaining factor premia and assess their suitability for pricing stock portfolios.
In summary, this dissertation improves our understanding of stock market regimes in three ways. First, we show that it is worthwhile to exploit the regime dependence of stock markets. Markov-switching models and their extensions are valuable tools for filtering the stock market dynamics and identifying and predicting regimes in real-time. Moreover, accounting for regime-dependent relationships helps to examine the dynamic impact of macroeconomic shocks on stock returns. Second, we emphasize the usefulness of macro-financial variables for the stock market. Regime identification and forecasting benefit from their inclusion. This is particularly true in periods of high uncertainty when information processing in financial markets is less efficient. Finally, we recommend to address parameter instability, estimation risk, and model uncertainty in empirical models. Because it is difficult to find a single approach that meets all of these challenges simultaneously, it is advisable to combine appropriate methods in a meaningful way. The framework should be as complex as necessary but as parsimonious as possible to mitigate additional estimation risk. This is especially recommended when working with financial market data with a typically low signal-to-noise ratio.