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Human behavior in regard to financial issues has long been explained in the light of the efficient market hypothesis. Following the strict interpretation of this theory, investors in the financial markets take into account that all relevant information is already included in the market price of an asset. Accordingly, information from the past does not affect future prices as all information is instantly incorporated. However, focussing on the actual behavior of humans, our empirical results indicate that the existing market conditions influence the behavior of stock market investors.
In the introductory chapter, we describe the difficulties of the efficient markets hypothesis in explaining the behavior of investors within a strictly rational frame. In the second chapter, we show that investors do consider the previous market development for their upcoming investment decisions. First, stock market patterns with predominantly positive days trigger significantly more trades than patterns with negative days. And second, after recent upward movements, investors sell proportionally more stocks than they buy. In the third chapter, we expound a theoretical framework that connects investment-related triggers of arousal, such as the performance of own stocks and the general market environment, with investors’ risk appetite in the decision-making processes. Our model predicts that aroused investors accept higher risks by holding stocks longer in comparison to their less aroused peers. In the fourth chapter, we show how two extreme market environments, the bull and the bear market, affect the disposition effect and especially learning to avoid this behavioral bias. Investors are subject to the bias in each market phase but with a far stronger propensity during the bear market. However, we show that investors also make the greatest progress in avoiding the disposition effect during this period.
These results suggest that future studies about investors’ behavior in the financial markets should consider the market environment as an important determinant.