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Issues in Price Measurement
(2022)
This thesis focuses on the issues in price measurement and consists of three chapters. Due to outdated weighting information, a Laspeyres-based consumer price index (CPI) is prone to accumulating upward bias. Therefore, chapter 1 introduces and examines simple and transparent revision approaches that retrospectively address the source of the bias. They provide a consistent long-run time series of the CPI and require no additional information. Furthermore, a coherent decomposition of the bias into the contributions of individual product groups is developed. In a case study, the approaches are applied to a Laspeyres-based CPI. The empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions. The proposed revision approaches are adoptable not only to most national CPIs but also to other price-level measures such as the producer price index or the import and export price indices.
Chapter 2 is dedicated to the measurement of import and export price indices. Such indices are complicated by the impact of exchange rates. These indices are usually also compiled by some Laspeyres type index. Therefore, substitution bias is an issue. The terms of trade (ratio of export and import price index) are therefore also likely to be distorted. The underlying substitution bias accumulates over time. The present article applies a simple and transparent retroactive correction approach that addresses the source of the substitution bias and produces meaningful long-run time series of import and export price levels and, therefore, of the terms of trade. Furthermore, an empirical case study is conducted that demonstrates the efficacy and versatility of the correction approach.
Chapter 3 leaves the field of index revision and studies another issue in price measurement, namely, the economic evaluation of digital products in monetary terms that have zero market prices. This chapter explores different methods of economic valuation and pricing of free digital products and proposes an alternative way to calculate the economic value and a shadow price of free digital products: the Usage Cost Model (UCM). The goal of the chapter is, first of all, to formulate a theoretical framework and incorporate an alternative measure of the value of free digital products. However, an empirical application is also made to show the work of the theoretical model. Some conclusions on applicability are drawn at the end of the chapter.
Income is one of the key indicators to measure regional differences, individual opportunities, and inequalities in society. In Germany, the regional distribution of income is a central concern, especially regarding persistent East-West, North-South, or urban-rural inequalities.
Effective local policies and institutions require reliable data and indicators on
regional inequality. However, its measurement faces severe data limitations: Inconsistencies
in the existing microdata sources yield an inconclusive picture of regional inequality.
While survey data provide a wide range of individual and household information but lack top incomes, tax data contain the most reliable income records but offer a limited range of socio-demographic variables essential for income analysis. In addition, information on the
long-term evolution of the income distribution at the small-scale level is scarce.
In this context, this thesis evaluates regional income inequality in Germany from various perspectives and embeds three self-contained studies in Chapters 3, 4, and 5, which present different data integration approaches. The first chapter motivates this thesis, while the second chapter provides a brief overview of the theoretical and empirical concepts as well
as the datasets, highlighting the need to combine data from different sources.
Chapter 3 tackles the issue of poor coverage of top incomes in surveys, also referred to as the ’missing rich’ problem, which leads to severe underestimation of income inequality. At the regional level this shortcoming is even more eminent due to small regional sample sizes. Based on reconciled tax and survey data, this chapter therefore proposes a new multiple
imputation top income correction approach that, unlike previous research, focuses on the regional rather than the national level. The findings indicate that inequality between and within the regions is much larger than previously understood with the magnitude of the adjustment depending on the federal states’ level of inequality in the tail. To increase the potential of the tax data for income analysis and to overcome the lack
of socio-demographic characteristics, Chapter 4 enriches the tax data with information on education and working time from survey data. For that purpose, a simulation study evaluates missing data methods and performant prediction models, finding that Multinomial
Regression and Random Forest are the most suitable methods for the specific data fusion scenario. The results indicate that data fusion approaches broaden the scope for regional inequality analysis from cross-sectional enhanced tax data.
Shifting from a cross-sectional to a longitudinal perspective on regional income inequality, Chapter 5 contributes to the currently relatively small body of literature dealing with the potential development of regional income disparities over time. Regionalized dynamic microsimulations provide a powerful tool for the study of long-term income developments. Therefore, this chapter extends the microsimulation model MikroSim with an income module
that accounts for the individual, household, and regional context. On this basis, the potential dynamics in gender and migrant income gaps across the districts in Germany are simulated under scenarios of increased full-time employment rates and higher levels
of tertiary education. The results show that the scenarios have regionally differing effects on inequality dynamics, highlighting the considerable potential of dynamic microsimulations for regional evidence-based policies. For the German case, the MikroSim model is well suited to analyze future regional developments and can be flexibly adapted for further specific research questions.
This thesis consists of four highly related chapters examining China’s rise in the aluminium industry. The first chapter addresses the conditions that allowed China, which first entered the market in the 1950s, to rise to world leadership in aluminium production. Although China was a latecomer, its re-entry into the market after the oil crises in the 1970s was a success and led to its ascent as the world’s largest aluminium producer by 2001. With an estimated production of 40.4 million tonnes in 2022, China represented almost 60% of the global output. Chapter 1 examines the factors underlying this success, such as the decline of international aluminium cartels, the introduction of innovative technology, the US granting China the MFN tariff status, Chinese-specific factors, and supportive government policies. Chapter 2 develops a mathematical model to analyze firms’ decisions in the short term. It examines how an incumbent with outdated technology and a new entrant with access to a new type of technology make strategic decisions, including the incumbent’s decision whether to deter entry, the production choice of firms, the optimal technology adoption rate of the newcomer, and cartel formation. Chapter 3 focuses on the adoption of new technology by firms upon market entry in four scenarios: firstly, a free market Cournot competition; secondly, a situation in which the government determines technology adoption rates; thirdly, a scenario in which the government controls both technology and production; and finally, a scenario where the government dictates technology adoption rates, production levels, and also the number of market participants. Chapter 4 applies the Spencer and Brander (1983) framework to examine strategic industrial policy. The model assumes that there are two exporting firms in two different countries that sell a product to a third country. We examine how the domestic firm is influenced by government intervention, such as the provision of a fixed-cost subsidy to improve its competitiveness relative to the foreign company. Chapter 4 initially investigates a scenario where only one government offers a fixed-cost subsidy, followed by an analysis of the case when both governments simultaneously provide financial help. Taken together, these chapters provide a comprehensive analysis of the strategic, technological, and political factors contributing to China’s leadership in the global aluminium industry.
Chapter 1: The Rise of China as a Latecomer in the Global Aluminium Industry
This chapter examines China’s remarkable transformation into a global leader in the aluminium industry, a sector in which the country accounted for approximately 58.9% of worldwide production in 2022. We examine how China, a latecomer to the aluminium industry that started off with labor-intensive technology in 1953, grew into the largest aluminium producer with some of the most advanced smelters in the world. This analysis identifies and discusses several opportunities that Chinese aluminium producers took advantage of. The first set of opportunities happened during the 1970s oil crises, which softened international competition and allowed China to acquire innovative smelting technology from Japan. The second set of opportunities started at about the same time when China opened its economy in 1978. The substantial demand for aluminium in China is influenced by both external and internal factors. Externally, the US granted China’s MFN tariff status in 1980 and China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Both events contributed to a surge in Chinese aluminium consumption. Internally, China’s investment-led growth model boosted further its aluminium demand. Additional factors specific to China, such as low labor costs and the abundance of coal as an energy source, offer Chinese firms competitive advantages against international players. Furthermore, another window of opportunity is due to Chinese governmental policies, including phasing out old technology, providing subsidies, and gradually opening the economy to enhance domestic competition before expanding globally. By describing these elements, the study provides insights into the dynamic interplay of external circumstances and internal strategies that contributed to the success of the Chinese aluminium industry.
Chapter 2: Technological Change and Strategic Choices for Incumbent and New Entrant
This chapter introduces an oligopoly model that includes two actors: an incumbent and a potential entrant, that compete in the same market. We assume that two participants are located in different parts of the market: the incumbent is situated in area 1, whereas the potential entrant may venture into the other region, area 2. The incumbent exists in stage zero, where it can decide whether to deter the newcomer’s entry. A new type of technology exists in period one, when the newcomer may enter the market. In the short term, the incumbent is trapped with the outdated technology, while the new entrant may choose to partially or completely adopt the latest technology. Our results suggest the following: Firstly, the incumbent only tries to deter the new entrant if a condition for entry cost is met. Secondly, the new entrant is only interested in forming a cartel with the incumbent if a function of the ratio of the variable to new technology’s fixed-cost parameters is sufficiently high. Thirdly, if the newcomer asks to form a cartel, the incumbent will always accept this request. Finally, we can obtain the optimal new technology adoption rate for the newcomer.
Chapter 3: Technological Adoption and Welfare in Cournot Oligopoly
This study examines the difference between the optimal technology adoption rates chosen by firms in a homogeneous Cournot oligopoly and that preferred by a benevolent government upon firms’ market entry. To address the question of whether the technology choices of firms and government are similar, we analyze several different scenarios, which differ in the extent of government intervention in the market. Our results suggest a relationship between the number of firms in the market and the impact of government intervention on technology adoption rates. Especially in situations with a low number of firms that are interested in entering the market, greater government influence tends to lead to higher technology adoption rates of firms. Conversely, in scenarios with a higher number of firms and a government that lacks control over the number of market players, the technology adoption rate of firms will be highest when the government plays no role.
Chapter 4: International Technological Innovation and Industrial Strategies
Supporting domestic firms when they first enter the market may be seen as a favorable policy choice by governments around the world thanks to their ability to enhance the competitive advantage of domestic firms in non-cooperative competition against foreign enterprises (infant industry protection argument). This advantage may allow domestic firms to increase their market share and generate higher profits, thereby improving domestic welfare. This chapter utilizes the Spencer and Brander (1983) framework as a theoretical foundation to elucidate the effects of fixed-cost subsidies on firms’ production levels, technological innovations, and social welfare. The analysis examines two firms in different countries, each producing a homogeneous product that is sold in a third, separate country. We first examine the Cournot-Nash equilibrium in the absence of government intervention, followed by analyzing a scenario where just one government provides a financial subsidy for its domestic firm, and finally, we consider a situation where both governments simultaneously provide financial assistance for their respective firms. Our results suggest that governments aim to maximize social welfare by providing fixed-cost subsidies to their respective firms, finding themselves in a Chicken game scenario. Regarding technology innovation, subsidies lead to an increased technological adoption rate for recipient firms, regardless of whether one or both firms in a market receive support, compared to the situation without subsidies. The technology adoption rate of the recipient firm is higher than of its rival when only the recipient firm benefits from the fixed-cost subsidy. The lowest technology adoption rate of a firm occurs when the firm does not receive a fixed-cost subsidy, but its competitor does. Furthermore, global welfare will benefit the most in case when both exporting countries grant fixed-cost subsidies, and this welfare level is higher when only one country subsidizes than when no subsidies are provided by any country.
Price indices play a vital role in economic measurement as they reflect price levels
and measure price fluctuations. Price level measures are used with macroeconomic
indicators to express them in real terms. These measures are also used to index wages,
rents, and pensions. Furthermore, they are used as a reference for monetary policy
conducted by central banks. Therefore, the provision of accurate price indices is one
of the most important goals of National Statistical Institutes (NSIs), and numerous
studies have been devoted to this goal.
This cumulative dissertation also contributes to this goal. It contains four chapters,
each of which represents a separate research. The first two studies are devoted to
the treatment of seasonal products by using different price index methods. The first
research is co-authored with Ken van Loon. The third research is dedicated to finding
the most accurate method to make price predictions for missing products. The fourth
research is focused on the treatment of products by using different price index methods
when products’ quality characteristics are available.