There is no longer any doubt about the general effectiveness of psychotherapy. However, up to 40% of patients do not respond to treatment. Despite efforts to develop new treatments, overall effectiveness has not improved. Consequently, practice-oriented research has emerged to make research results more relevant to practitioners. Within this context, patient-focused research (PFR) focuses on the question of whether a particular treatment works for a specific patient. Finally, PFR gave rise to the precision mental health research movement that is trying to tailor treatments to individual patients by making data-driven and algorithm-based predictions. These predictions are intended to support therapists in their clinical decisions, such as the selection of treatment strategies and adaptation of treatment. The present work summarizes three studies that aim to generate different prediction models for treatment personalization that can be applied to practice. The goal of Study I was to develop a model for dropout prediction using data assessed prior to the first session (N = 2543). The usefulness of various machine learning (ML) algorithms and ensembles was assessed. The best model was an ensemble utilizing random forest and nearest neighbor modeling. It significantly outperformed generalized linear modeling, correctly identifying 63.4% of all cases and uncovering seven key predictors. The findings illustrated the potential of ML to enhance dropout predictions, but also highlighted that not all ML algorithms are equally suitable for this purpose. Study II utilized Study I’s findings to enhance the prediction of dropout rates. Data from the initial two sessions and observer ratings of therapist interventions and skills were employed to develop a model using an elastic net (EN) algorithm. The findings demonstrated that the model was significantly more effective at predicting dropout when using observer ratings with a Cohen’s d of up to .65 and more effective than the model in Study I, despite the smaller sample (N = 259). These results indicated that generating models could be improved by employing various data sources, which provide better foundations for model development. Finally, Study III generated a model to predict therapy outcome after a sudden gain (SG) in order to identify crucial predictors of the upward spiral. EN was used to generate the model using data from 794 cases that experienced a SG. A control group of the same size was also used to quantify and relativize the identified predictors by their general influence on therapy outcomes. The results indicated that there are seven key predictors that have varying effect sizes on therapy outcome, with Cohen's d ranging from 1.08 to 12.48. The findings suggested that a directive approach is more likely to lead to better outcomes after an SG, and that alliance ruptures can be effectively compensated for. However, these effects
were reversed in the control group. The results of the three studies are discussed regarding their usefulness to support clinical decision-making and their implications for the implementation of precision mental health.
Internet interventions have gained popularity and the idea is to use them to increase the availability of psychological treatment. Research suggests that internet interventions are effective for a number of psychological disorders with effect sizes comparable to those found in face-to-face treatment. However, when provided as an add-on to treatment as usual, internet interventions do not seem to provide additional benefit. Furthermore, adherence and dropout rates vary greatly between studies, limiting the generalizability of the findings. This underlines the need to further investigate differences between internet interventions, participating patients, and their usage of interventions. A stronger focus on the processes of change seems necessary to better understand the varying findings regarding outcome, adherence and dropout in internet interventions. Thus, the aim of this dissertation was to investigate change processes in internet interventions and the factors that impact treatment response. This could help to identify important variables that should be considered in research on internet interventions as well as in clinical settings that make use of internet interventions.
Study I (Chapter 5) investigated early change patterns in participants of an internet intervention targeting depression. Data from 409 participants were analyzed using Growth Mixture Modeling. Specifically a piecewise model was applied to model change from screening to registration (pretreatment) and early change (registration to week four of treatment). Three early change patterns were identified; two were characterized by improvement and one by deterioration. The patterns were predictive of treatment outcome. The results therefore indicated that early change should be closely monitored in internet interventions, as early change may be an important indicator of treatment outcome.
Study II (Chapter 6) picked up on the idea of analyzing change patterns in internet interventions and extended it by using the Muthen-Roy model to identify change-dropout patterns. A sligthly bigger sample of the dataset from Study I was analyzed (N = 483). Four change-dropout patterns emerged; high risk of dropout was associated with rapid improvement and deterioration. These findings indicate that clinicians should consider how dropout may depend on patient characteristics as well as symptom change, as dropout is associated with both deterioration and a good enough dosage of treatment.
Study III (Chapter 7) compared adherence and outcome in different participant groups and investigated the impact of adherence to treatment components on treatment outcome in an internet intervention targeting anxiety symptoms. 50 outpatient participants waiting for face- to-face treatment and 37 self-referred participants were compared regarding adherence to treatment components and outcome. In addition, outpatient participants were compared to a matched sample of outpatients, who had no access to the internet intervention during the waiting period. Adherence to treatment components was investigated as a predictor of treatment outcome. Results suggested that especially adherence may vary depending on participant group. Also using specific measures of adherence such as adherence to treatment components may be crucial to detect change mechanisms in internet interventions. Fostering adherence to treatment components in participants may increase the effectiveness of internet interventions.
Results of the three studies are discussed and general conclusions are drawn.
Implications for future research as well as their utility for clinical practice and decision- making are presented.