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The main purpose of this dissertation is to solve the following question: How will the emergence of the Euro influence the currency composition of the NICs?monetary reserves? Taiwan and Thailand are chosen as our investigation subjects. There are two sorts of motives for central banks' reserve holdings, i.e., intervention-related motives and portfolio-related motives. The need for reserve holdings resulting from intervention-related motives are justified because of the costs resulting from exchange rate instability. On the other hand, we use the Tobin-Markowitz model to justify the need for monetary reserves held for portfolio-related motives. The operational implication of this distinction is the separation of monetary reserves into two tranches corresponding to different objectives. An analysis of a central bank's transaction balance is a money quality analysis. Such an analysis has to do with transaction costs and non-pecuniary rates of return. The facts point out, that the Euro's emergence will not change the fact that the USD will continue to be the major currency of transaction balances of the central banks in Taiwan and Thailand. In order to answer the question about diversification of monetary reserves as idle balance in the two NICs, we carry out an analysis of the portfolio approach, which is based on the basic ideas of the Tobin-Markowitz model. This analysis shows that Taiwan and/or Thailand respectively cannot reduce risk at a given rate of return or increase the rate of return at a given risk by diversifying their monetary reserves as idle balance from the USD to the Euro.
International private equity development is highly volatile with increasing global diversification. This thesis examines the transaction patterns of cross-border private equity investment with a particular focus on the affinity of country pairs. Analysis is based on a comprehensive dataset of 99 countries over 25 years. A three-dimensional gravity model analysis covering source and host country over time exposes the effects of the country determinants: economic mass, economic distance, banking system, corporate endowment, as well as legal, political, and institutional system on the transactions. A new method is developed to examine countries in their dual roles as investor and target. This approach verifies their global importance as source and host, and also makes possible an analysis of overall private equity investment. For private equity-specific multi-investor deals, a scheme is designed to measure cross-border activity with more precision by participation, proportional deal participation, and deal flow. The analysis identifies intense level of affinity between country pairs and reveals that no single country is ideal for private equity activity. Instead, the findings show that the specific push and pull factors within each country constellation define the optimal country as trading partner. The results verify a correlation between cross-border deals and economic masses and reduced economic distance of countries. Geographic distance and cultural similarities, such as language and legal system, intensify the likelihood of initiating transactions. International trade-oriented countries with a high level of development lower the entrance barriers and increase the chances of deal success. A well-funded financial system for the investor and an efficient and competitive banking system of target countries enhance the probability of investment between countries. Also relevant for the likelihood of starting cross-border deals are low corporate tax burdens and advanced scientific competitiveness, and a well-developed stock market in the investor country. Fundamental to frequency and likelihood of success are well-established, high standards of a country- social, political, and legal systems with widespread confidence in the rules of society. In particular, the reliability of contract enforcement, with proven quality of regulations that promote private sector development, proves to be crucial for deal success.
For the first time, the German Census 2011 will be conducted via a new method the register based census. In contrast to a traditional census, where all inhabitants are surveyed, the German government will mainly attempt to count individuals using population registers of administrative authorities, such as the municipalities and the Federal Employment Agency. Census data that cannot be collected from the registers, such as information on education, training, and occupation, will be collected by an interview-based sample survey. Moreover, the new method reduces citizens' obligations to provide information and helps reduce costs significantly. The use of sample surveys is limited if results with a detailed regional or subject-matter breakdown have to be prepared. Classical estimation methods are sometimes criticized, since estimation is often problematic for small samples. Fortunately, model based small area estimators serve as an alternative. These methods help to increase the information, and hence the effective sample size. In the German Census 2011 it is possible to embed areas on a map in a geographical context. This may offer additional information, such as neighborhood relations or spatial interactions. Standard small area models, like Fay-Herriot or Battese-Harter-Fuller, do not account for such interactions explicitly. The aim of our work is to extend the classical models by integrating the spatial information explicitly into the model. In addition, the possible gain in efficiency will be analyzed.
Legalisation cannot be fully explained by interest politics. If that were the case, the attitudes towards legalisation would be expected to be based on objective interests and actual policies in France and Germany would be expected to be more similar. Nor can it be explained by institutional agency, because there are no hints that states struggle with different normative traditions. Rather, political actors seek to make use of the structures that already exist to guar-antee legitimacy for their actions. If the main concern of governmental actors really is to accumulate legitimacy, as stated in the introduction, then politicians have a good starting position in the case of legalisation of illegal foreigners. Citizens" negative attitudes towards legalisation cannot be explained by imagined labour market competition; income effects play only a secondary role. The most important explanatory factor is the educational level of each individual. Objective interests do not trigger attitudes towards legalisation, but rather a basic men-tal predisposition for or against illegal immigrants who are eligible for legalisation. Politics concerning amnesties are thus not tied to an objectively given structure like the socio-economic composition of the electorate, but are open for political discretion. Attitudes on legalising illegal immigrants can be regarded as being mediated by beliefs and perceptions, which can be used by political agents or altered by political developments. However, politicians must adhere to a national frame of legitimating strategies that cannot be neglected without consequences. It was evident in the cross-country comparison of political debates that there are national systems of reference that provide patterns of interpretation. Legalisation is seen and incorporated into immigration policy in a very specific way that differs from one country to the next. In both countries investigated in this study, there are fundamental debates about which basic principles apply to legalisation and which of these should be held in higher esteem: a legal system able to work, humanitarian rights, practical considerations, etc. The results suggest that legalisation is "technicized" in France by describing it as an unusual but possible pragmatic instrument for the adjustment of the inefficient rule of law. In Germany, however, legalisation is discussed at a more normative level. Proponents of conservative immigration policies regard it as a substantial infringement on the rule of law, so that even defenders of a humanitarian solution for illegal immigrants are not able to challenge this view without significant political harm. But the arguments brought to bear in the debate on legalisation are not necessarily sound because they are not irrefutable facts, but instruments to generate legitimacy, and there are enough possibilities for arguing and persuading because socio-economic factors play a minor role. One of the most important arguments, the alleged pull effect of legalisation, has been subjected to an empirical investigation. In the political debate, it does not make any dif-ference whether this is true or not, insofar as it is not contested by incontrovertible findings. In reality, the results suggest that amnesties indeed exert a small attracting influence on illegal immigration, which has been contested by immigration friendly politicians in the French par-liament. The effect, however, is not large; therefore, some conservative politicians may put too much stress on this argument. Moreover, one can see legalisation as an instrument to restore legitimacy that has slipped away from immigration politics because of a high number of illegally residing foreigners. This aspect explains some of the peculiarities in the French debate on legalisation, e.g. the idea that the coherence of the law is secured by creating exceptional rules for legalising illegal immigrants. It has become clear that the politics of legalisation are susceptible to manipulation by introducing certain interpretations into the political debate, which become predominant and supersede other views. In this study, there are no signs of a systematic misuse of this constellation by any certain actor. However, the history of immigration policy is full of examples of symbolic politics in which a certain measure has been initiated while the actors are totally aware of its lack of effect. Legalisation has escaped this fate so far because it is a specific instrument that is the result of neglecting populist mechanisms rather than an ex-ample of a superficial measure. This result does not apply to policies concerning illegal immi-gration in general, both with regard to concealing a lack of control and flexing the state- muscles.
This dissertation focuses on the link between labour market institutions and precautionary savings. It is evaluated whether private households react to changes in social insurance provision such as the income replacement in case of unemployment by increased savings for precautionary reasons. The dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters, each focusing on slightly different aspects of the topic. The first chapter titled "Precautionary saving and the (in)stability of subjective earnings uncertainty" empirically looks at the influence of future income uncertainty on household saving behavior. Numerous cross-section studies on precautionary saving use subjective expectations regarding the income variance one year ahead as a proxy for income uncertainty. Using such proxies observed only at one point in time, however, may give rise to biased estimates for precautionary wealth if expectations are not stable over time. Survey data from the Dutch DNB Household Survey suggest that subjective future income distributions are not stable over the mid-term. Moreover, in this study I contrast estimates of precautionary wealth using the variation coefficient observed at one point in time with those using a simple mid-term average. Estimates of precautionary wealth based on the average are about 40% to 80% higher than the estimates using the variation coefficient observed only once. In addition to that, wealth accumulation for precautionary reasons is estimated for different parts of the income distribution. The share of precautionary wealth is highest for households at the center of the income distribution. By linking saving behaviour with unemployment insurance, the following chapters then shed some light on an issue that has largely been neglected in the literature on labour market institutions so far. Whereas the third chapter models the relevance of unemployment insurance for income uncertainty and intertemporal decision making during institutional reform processes, chapter 4 seeks to establish empirically a relationship between saving behavior and unemployment insurance. Social insurance, especially unemployment insurance, provides agents with income insurance against not marketable income risks. Since the early 1990s, reform measures like more activating policies as suggested by the OECD Jobs Study in 1994 have been observed in Europe. In the third chapter it is argued that such changes in unemployment insurance reduce public insurance and increase income uncertainty. Moreover, a simple three period model is discussed which shows a link between a welfare state reform and agents' saving decisions as one possible reaction of agents to self-insure against income risk. Two sources of uncertainty seem to be important in this context: (1) uncertain results of the reform process concerning the replacement rate, and (2) uncertainty regarding the timing of information about the content of the reform. It can be shown that the precautionary motive for saving explains an increased accumulation of capital in times of reform activities. In addition to that, early information about the expected replacement rate increases agents' utility and reduces under and oversaving. Following the argument of the previous chapters, that an important feature of labour market institutions in modern welfare states is to provide cash transfers as income replacement in case of unemployment, it is hypothesised that unemployment benefits reduce the motive to save for precautionary reasons. Based on consumer sentiment data from the European Commission's Consumer Survey, chapter four finally provides some evidence that aggregate saving intentions are significantly influenced by unemployment benefits. It can be shown that higher benefits lower the intention to save.
The demand for reliable statistics has been growing over the past decades, because more and more political and economic decisions are based on statistics, e.g. regional planning, allocation of funds or business decisions. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to develop and to obtain precise regional indicators as well as disaggregated values in order to compare regions or specific groups. In general, surveys provide the information for these indicators only for larger areas like countries or administrative divisions. However, in practice, it is more interesting to obtain indicators for specific subdivisions like on NUTS 2 or NUTS 3 levels. The Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) is a hierarchical system of the European Union used in statistics to refer to subdivisions of countries. In many cases, the sample information on such detailed levels is not available. Thus, there are projects such as the European Census, which have the goal to provide precise numbers on NUTS 3 or even community level. The European Census is conducted amongst others in Germany and Switzerland in 2011. Most of the participating countries use sample and register information in a combined form for the estimation process. The classical estimation methods of small areas or subgroups, such as the Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimator or the generalized regression (GREG) estimator, suffer from small area-specific sample sizes which cause high variances of the estimates. The application of small area methods, for instance the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP), reduces the variance of the estimates by including auxiliary information to increase the effective sample size. These estimation methods lead to higher accuracy of the variables of interest. Small area estimation is also used in the context of business data. For example during the estimation of the revenues of specific subgroups like on NACE 3 or NACE 4 levels, small sample sizes can occur. The Nomenclature statistique des activités économiques dans la Communauté européenne (NACE) is a system of the European Union which defines an industry standard classification. Besides small sample sizes, business data have further special characteristics. The main challenge is that business data have skewed distributions with a few large companies and many small businesses. For instance, in the automotive industry in Germany, there are many small suppliers but only few large original equipment manufacturers (OEM). Altogether, highly influential units and outliers can be observed in business statistics. These extreme values in connection with small sample sizes cause severe problems when standard small area models are applied. These models are generally based on the normality assumption, which does not hold in the case of outliers. One way to solve these peculiarities is to apply outlier robust small area methods. The availability of adequate covariates is important for the accuracy of the above described small area methods. However, in business data, the auxiliary variables are hardly available on population level. One of several reasons for that is the fact that in Germany a lot of enterprises are not reflected in business registers due to truncation limits. Furthermore, only listed enterprises or companies which trespass specific thresholds are obligated to publish their results. This limits the number of potential auxiliary variables for the estimation. Even though there are issues with available covariates, business data often include spatial dependencies which can be used to enhance small area methods. Next to spatial information based on geographic characteristics, group-specific similarities like related industries based on NACE codes can be used. For instance, enterprises from the same NACE 2 level, e.g. sector 47 retail trade, behave more similar than two companies from different NACE 2 levels, e.g. sector 05 mining of coal and sector 64 financial services. This spatial correlation can be incorporated by extending the general linear mixed model trough the integration of spatially correlated random effects. In business data, outliers as well as geographic or content-wise spatial dependencies between areas or domains are closely linked. The coincidence of these two factors and the resulting consequences have not been fully covered in the relevant literature. The only approach that combines robust small area methods with spatial dependencies is the M-quantile geographically weighted regression model. In the context of EBLUP-based small area models, the combination of robust and spatial methods has not been considered yet. Therefore, this thesis provides a theoretical approach to this scientific and practical problem and shows its relevance in an empirical study.
In politics and economics, and thus in the official statistics, the precise estimation of indicators for small regions or parts of populations, the so-called Small Areas or domains, is discussed intensively. The design-based estimation methods currently used are mainly based on asymptotic properties and are thus reliable for large sample sizes. With small sample sizes, however, this design based considerations often do not apply, which is why special model-based estimation methods have been developed for this case - the Small Area methods. While these may be biased, they often have a smaller mean squared error (MSE) as the unbiased design based estimators. In this work both classic design-based estimation methods and model-based estimation methods are presented and compared. The focus lies on the suitability of the various methods for their use in official statistics. First theory and algorithms suitable for the required statistical models are presented, which are the basis for the subsequent model-based estimators. Sampling designs are then presented apt for Small Area applications. Based on these fundamentals, both design-based estimators and as well model-based estimation methods are developed. Particular consideration is given in this case to the area-level empirical best predictor for binomial variables. Numerical and Monte Carlo estimation methods are proposed and compared for this analytically unsolvable estimator. Furthermore, MSE estimation methods are proposed and compared. A very popular and flexible resampling method that is widely used in the field of Small Area Statistics, is the parametric bootstrap. One major drawback of this method is its high computational intensity. To mitigate this disadvantage, a variance reduction method for parametric bootstrap is proposed. On the basis of theoretical considerations the enormous potential of this proposal is proved. A Monte Carlo simulation study shows the immense variance reduction that can be achieved with this method in realistic scenarios. This can be up to 90%. This actually enables the use of parametric bootstrap in applications in official statistics. Finally, the presented estimation methods in a large Monte Carlo simulation study in a specific application for the Swiss structural survey are examined. Here problems are discussed, which are of high relevance for official statistics. These are in particular: (a) How small can the areas be without leading to inappropriate or to high precision estimates? (b) Are the accuracy specifications for the Small Area estimators reliable enough to use it for publication? (c) Do very small areas infer in the modeling of the variables of interest? Could they cause thus a deterioration of the estimates of larger and therefore more important areas? (d) How can covariates, which are in different levels of aggregation be used in an appropriate way to improve the estimates. The data basis is the Swiss census of 2001. The main results are that in the author- view, the use of small area estimators for the production of estimates for areas with very small sample sizes is advisable in spite of the modeling effort. The MSE estimates provide a useful measure of precision, but do not reach in all Small Areas the level of reliability of the variance estimates for design-based estimators.
This thesis deals with economic aspects of employees' sickness. In addition to the classical case of sickness absence, in which an employee is completely unable to work and hence stays at home, there is the case of sickness presenteeism, in which the employee comes to work despite being sick. Accordingly, the thesis at hand covers research on both sickness states, absence and presenteeism. The first section covers sickness absence and labour market institutions. Chapter 2 presents theoretical and empirical evidence that differences in the social norm against benefit fraud, so-called benefit morale, can explain cross country diversity in the generosity of statutory sick pay entitlements between developed countries. In our political economy model, a stricter benefit morale reduces the absence rate, with counteracting effects on the politically set sick pay replacement rate. On the one hand, less absence caused by a stricter norm, makes the tax-financed insurance cheaper, leading to the usual demand side effect and hence to more generous sick pay entitlements. On the other hand, being less likely to be absent due to a stricter norm, the voters prefer a smaller fee over more insurance. We document both effects in a sample of 31 developed countries, capturing the years from 1981 to 2010. In Chapter 3 we investigate the relationship between the existence of works councils and illness-related absence and its consequences for plants. Using individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we find that the existence of a works council is positively correlated with the incidence and the annual duration of absence. Additionally, linked employer-employee data (LIAB) suggests that employers are more likely to expect personnel problems due to absence in plants with a works council. In western Germany, we find significant effects using a difference-in-differences approach, which can be causally interpreted. The second part of this thesis covers two studies on sickness presenteeism. In Chapter 4, we empirically investigate the determinants of the annual duration of sickness presenteeism using the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). Work autonomy, workload and tenure are positively related to the number of sickness presenteeism days, while a good working environment comes with less presenteeism. In Chapter 5 we theoretically and empirically analyze sickness absence and presenteeism behaviour with a focus on their interdependence. Specifically, we ask whether work-related factors lead to a substitutive, a complementary or no relationship between sickness absence and presenteeism. In other words, we want to know whether changes in absence and presenteeism behaviour incurred by work-related characteristics point in opposite directions (substitutive), the same direction (complementary), or whether they only affect either one of the two sickness states (no relationship). Our theoretical model shows that the relationship between sickness absence and presenteeism with regard to work-related characteristics is not necessarily of a substitutive nature. Instead, a complementary or no relationship can emerge as well. Turning to the empirical investigation, we find that only one out of 16 work-related factors, namely the supervisor status, leads to a substitutive relationship between absence and presenteeism. Few of the other determinants are complements, while the large majority is either related to sickness absence or presenteeism.
Chapter 2: Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study examines the relation-ship between immigrant residential segregation and immigrants" satisfaction with the neighbor-hood. The estimates show that immigrants living in segregated areas are less satisfied with the neighborhood. This is consistent with the hypothesis that housing discrimination rather than self-selection plays an important role in immigrant residential segregation. Our result holds true even when controlling for other influences such as household income and quality of the dwelling. It also holds true in fixed effects estimates that account for unobserved time-invariant influences. Chapter 3: Using survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study shows that immigrants living in segregated residential areas are more likely to report discrimination because of their ethnic background. This applies to both segregated areas where most neighbors are immigrants from the same country of origin as the surveyed person and segregated areas where most neighbors are immigrants from other countries of origin. The results suggest that housing discrimination rather than self-selection plays an important role in immigrant residential segregation. Chapter 4: Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and administrative data from 1996 to 2009, I investigate the question whether or not right-wing extremism of German residents is affected by the ethnic concentration of foreigners living in the same residential area. My results show a positive but insignificant relationship between ethnic concentration at the county level and the probability of extreme right-wing voting behavior for West Germany. However, due to potential endogeneity issues, I additionally instrument the share of foreigners in a county with the share of foreigners in each federal state (following an approach of Dustmann/Preston 2001). I find evidence for the interethnic contact theory, predicting a negative relationship between foreign-ers" share and right-wing voting. Moreover, I analyze the moderating role of education and the influence of cultural traits on this relationship. Chapter 5: Using data from the Socio-Economic Panel from 1998 to 2009 and administrative data on regional ethnic diversity, I show that ethnic diversity inhibits significantly people- political interest and participation in political organizations in West Germany. People seem to isolate themselves from political participation if exposed to more ethnic diversity which is particularly relevant with respect to the ongoing integration process of the European Union and the increasing transfer of legislative power from the national to European level. The results are robust if an instrumental variable strategy suggested by Dustmann and Preston (2001) is used to take into account that ethnic diversity measured on a local spatial level could be endogenous due to residential sorting. Interestingly, participation in non-political organizations is positively affected by ethnic diversity if selection bias is corrected for.
This dissertation includes three research articles on the portfolio risks of private investors. In the first article, we analyze a large data set of private banking portfolios in Switzerland of a major bank with the unique feature that parts of the portfolios were managed by the bank, and parts were advisory portfolios. To correct the heterogeneity of individual investors, we apply a mixture model and a cluster analysis. Our results suggest that there is indeed a substantial group of advised individual investors that outperform the bank managed portfolios, at least after fees. However, a simple passive strategy that invests in the MSCI World and a risk-free asset significantly outperforms both the better advisory and the bank managed portfolios. The new regulation of the EU for financial products (UCITS IV) prescribes Value at Risk (VaR) as the benchmark for assessing the risk of structured products. The second article discusses the limitations of this approach and shows that, in theory, the expected return of structured products can be unbounded while the VaR requirement for the lowest risk class can still be satisfied. Real-life examples of large returns within the lowest risk class are then provided. The results demonstrate that the new regulation could lead to new seemingly safe products that hide large risks. Behavioral investors who choose products based only on their official risk classes and their expected returns will, therefore, invest into suboptimal products. To overcome these limitations, we suggest a new risk-return measure for financial products based on the martingale measure that could erase such loopholes. Under the mean-VaR framework, the third article discusses the impacts of the underlying's first four moments on the structured product. By expanding the expected return and the VaR of a structured product with its underlying moments, it is possible to investigate each moment's impact on them, simultaneously. Results are tested by Monte Carlo simulation and historical simulation. The findings show that for the majority of structured products, underlyings with large positive skewness are preferred. The preferences for variance and for kurtosis are ambiguous.