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In the modeling context, non-linearities and uncertainty go hand in hand. In fact, the utility function's curvature determines the degree of risk-aversion. This concept is exploited in the first article of this thesis, which incorporates uncertainty into a small-scale DSGE model. More specifically, this is done by a second-order approximation, while carrying out the derivation in great detail and carefully discussing the more formal aspects. Moreover, the consequences of this method are discussed when calibrating the equilibrium condition. The second article of the thesis considers the essential model part of the first paper and focuses on the (forward-looking) data needed to meet the model's requirements. A large number of uncertainty measures are utilized to explain a possible approximation bias. The last article keeps to the same topic but uses statistical distributions instead of actual data. In addition, theoretical (model) and calibrated (data) parameters are used to produce more general statements. In this way, several relationships are revealed with regard to a biased interpretation of this class of models. In this dissertation, the respective approaches are explained in full detail and also how they build on each other.
In summary, the question remains whether the exact interpretation of model equations should play a role in macroeconomics. If we answer this positively, this work shows to what extent the practical use can lead to biased results.
This dissertation is dedicated to the analysis of the stabilty of portfolio risk and the impact of European regulation introducing risk based classifications for investment funds.
The first paper examines the relationship between portfolio size and the stability of mutual fund risk measures, presenting evidence for economies of scale in risk management. In a unique sample of 338 fund portfolios we find that the volatility of risk numbers decreases for larger funds. This finding holds for dispersion as well as tail risk measures. Further analyses across asset classes provide evidence for the robustness of the effect for balanced and fixed income portfolios. However, a size effect did not emerge for equity funds, suggesting that equity fund managers simply scale their strategy up as they grow. Analyses conducted on the differences in risk stability between tail risk measures and volatilities reveal that smaller funds show higher discrepancies in that respect. In contrast to the majority of prior studies on the basis of ex-post time series risk numbers, this study contributes to the literature by using ex-ante risk numbers based on the actual assets and de facto portfolio data.
The second paper examines the influence of European legislation regarding risk classification of mutual funds. We conduct analyses on a set of worldwide equity indices and find that a strategy based on the long term volatility as it is imposed by the Synthetic Risk Reward Indicator (SRRI) would lead to substantial variations in exposures ranging from short phases of very high leverage to long periods of under investments that would be required to keep the risk classes. In some cases, funds will be forced to migrate to higher risk classes due to limited means to reduce volatilities after crises events. In other cases they might have to migrate to lower risk classes or increase their leverage to ridiculous amounts. Overall, we find if the SRRI creates a binding mechanism for fund managers, it will create substantial interference with the core investment strategy and may incur substantial deviations from it. Fruthermore due to the forced migrations the SRRI degenerates to a passive indicator.
The third paper examines the impact of this volatility based fund classification on portfolio performance. Using historical data on equity indices we find initially that a strategy based on long term portfolio volatility, as it is imposed by the Synthetic Risk Reward Indicator (SRRI), yields better Sharpe Ratios (SRs) and Buy and Hold Returns (BHRs) for the investment strategies matching the risk classes. Accounting for the Fama-French factors reveals no significant alphas for the vast majority of the strategies. In our simulation study where volatility was modelled through a GJR(1,1) - model we find no significant difference in mean returns, but significantly lower SRs for the volatility based strategies. These results were confirmed in robustness checks using alternative models and timeframes. Overall we present evidence which suggests that neither the higher leverage induced by the SRRI nor the potential protection in downside markets does pay off on a risk adjusted basis.
Theoretical and empirical research assumes a negative development of student achievement motivation over the course of their school careers (i.e., mean-level declines of achievement motivation). However, the exact magnitude of this motivational change remains elusive and it is unclear whether different motivational constructs show similar developmental trends. Furthermore, it is unknown whether motivational declines are related to a particular school stage (i.e., elementary, middle, or high school) or the school transition, and which additional changes are associated with motivational decreases (e.g., changes in student achievement). Finally, previous research has remained inconsistent regarding the question whether ability grouping of students helps prevent motivational declines or results in additional motivational “costs” for students.
This dissertation presents three articles that were designed to address these research questions. In Article 1, a meta-analysis based on 107 independent longitudinal studies investigated student mean-level changes in self-esteem, academic self-concept, academic self-efficacy, intrinsic motivation, and achievement goals from first to 13th grade. Article 2 comprised two longitudinal studies with German adolescents (Study: n = 745 students assessed in four waves in grades 5-7; Study 2: n = 1420 students assessed in four waves in grades 5-8). Both longitudinal studies investigated the separate and the joint development of achievement goals, interest, and achievement in math. In Article 3, a longitudinal study (n = 296 high-ability students assessed in four waves in grades 5-7) investigated the effects of full-time ability grouping on student development of academic self-concept and achievement in math.
The meta-analysis revealed significant decreases in math and language academic self-concept, intrinsic motivation, and mastery and performance-approach goals, whereas no significant changes in self-esteem, general academic self-concept, academic self-efficacy, and performance-avoidance goals were found. Interestingly, motivational declines were not related to school stage or school transition. In Article 2, decreases in interest and mastery, performance-approach, and performance-avoidance goals were indicated by both longitudinal studies. Development of mastery and performance-approach goals was positively related or unrelated to development in interest and achievement, whereas development of performance-avoidance goals was negatively related or unrelated to development of interest and achievement. Finally, the longitudinal study in Article 3 revealed no significant change in student academic self-concept in math over time. Ability grouping showed no positive or negative effects on student academic self-concept. However, high-ability students that were grouped together demonstrated greater gains in their achievement than high-ability students in regular classes.
Why they rebel peacefully: On the violence-reducing effects of a positive attitude towards democracy
Under the impression of Europe’s drift into Nazism and Stalinism in the first half of the 20th century, social psychological research has focused strongly on dangers inherent in people’s attachment to a political system. The dissertation at hand contributes to a more differentiated perspective by examining violence-reducing aspects of political system attachment in four consecutive steps: First, it highlights attachment to a social group as a resource for violence prevention on an intergroup level. The results suggest that group attachment fosters self-control, a well-known protective factor against violence. Second, it demonstrates violence-reducing influences of attachment on a societal level. The findings indicate that attachment to a democracy facilitate peaceful and prevent violent protest tendencies. Third, it introduces the concept of political loyalty, defined as a positive attitude towards democracy, in order to clarify the different approaches of political system attachment. A set of three studies show the reliability and validity of a newly developed political loyalty questionnaire that distinguishes between affective and cognitive aspects. Finally, the dissertation differentiates former findings with regard to protest tendencies using the concept of political loyalty. A set of two experiments show that affective rather than cognitive aspects of political loyalty instigate peaceful protest tendencies and prevent violent ones. Implications of this dissertation for political engagement and peacebuilding as well as avenues for future research are discussed.
Bei Albert Dietz und Bernhard Grothe handelt es sich um zwei bedeutende Architekten im französisch-saarländischen Grenzgebiet. Sie gründeten 1952 eine Arbeitsgemeinschaft mit dem Ziel, auf gemeinschaftlicher Basis den nach dem Krieg entstandenen Bedarf an profanen und sakralen Wiederaufbau- und Neubaumaßnahmen in ihren Bauwerken möglichst effektiv reaslisieren zu können. Diese Arbeit befaßt sich ausschließlich mit den Sakralbauten, die deren künstlerische und architektonische Leistungen auf anschauliche Weise demonstrieren und belegen.
Human behavior in regard to financial issues has long been explained in the light of the efficient market hypothesis. Following the strict interpretation of this theory, investors in the financial markets take into account that all relevant information is already included in the market price of an asset. Accordingly, information from the past does not affect future prices as all information is instantly incorporated. However, focussing on the actual behavior of humans, our empirical results indicate that the existing market conditions influence the behavior of stock market investors.
In the introductory chapter, we describe the difficulties of the efficient markets hypothesis in explaining the behavior of investors within a strictly rational frame. In the second chapter, we show that investors do consider the previous market development for their upcoming investment decisions. First, stock market patterns with predominantly positive days trigger significantly more trades than patterns with negative days. And second, after recent upward movements, investors sell proportionally more stocks than they buy. In the third chapter, we expound a theoretical framework that connects investment-related triggers of arousal, such as the performance of own stocks and the general market environment, with investors’ risk appetite in the decision-making processes. Our model predicts that aroused investors accept higher risks by holding stocks longer in comparison to their less aroused peers. In the fourth chapter, we show how two extreme market environments, the bull and the bear market, affect the disposition effect and especially learning to avoid this behavioral bias. Investors are subject to the bias in each market phase but with a far stronger propensity during the bear market. However, we show that investors also make the greatest progress in avoiding the disposition effect during this period.
These results suggest that future studies about investors’ behavior in the financial markets should consider the market environment as an important determinant.
While women's evolving contribution to entrepreneurship is irrefutable, in almost all nations, gender disparity is an existing reality of entrepreneurship. Social and economic outcomes make women entrepreneurship an important area for scholars and governments. In attempts to find reasons for this gender disparity, academic scholars evaluated various factors and recognised perceptual variables as having outstanding explanatory value in understanding women's entrepreneurship. To advance our knowledge of gender disparity in entrepreneurship, the present study explores the influence of entrepreneurial perceptual variables on women's entrepreneurship and considers the critical role of country-level institutional contexts on the women's entrepreneurial propensity. Therefore, this study examines the impact of perceptual variables in different nations. It also offers connections between entrepreneurial perceptions, women entrepreneurship, and institutional contexts as a critical topic for future studies.
Drawing on the importance of perceptual factors, this dissertation investigates whether and how their perception of entrepreneurial networks influences the individuals' decision to initiate a new venture. Prior scholars considered exposure to entrepreneurial role models as one of the most influential factors on the women's inclination towards entrepreneurship; thus, a systemized analysis makes it possible to identify existing research gaps related to this perception. Hence, to draw a clear picture of the relationship between entrepreneurial role models and entrepreneurship, this dissertation provides a systemized overview of prior studies. Subsequently, Chapter 2 structures the existing literature on entrepreneurial role models and reveals that past literature has focused on the different types of role models, the stage of life at which the exposure to role models occurs, and the context of the exposure. Current discourse argues that the women's lower access to entrepreneurial role models negatively influences their inclination towards entrepreneurship.
Additionally, although the research on women entrepreneurship has proliferated in recent years, little is known about how entrepreneurial perceptual variables form women's propensity towards entrepreneurship in various institutional contexts. The work of Koellinger et al. (2013), hereafter KMS, is one of the most influential papers that investigated the influence of perceptual variables, and it showed that a lower rate of women entrepreneurship is associated with a lower level of their entrepreneurial network, perceived entrepreneurial capability, and opportunity evaluation and with a higher fear of entrepreneurial failure. Thus, this dissertation replicates the work of KMS. Chapter 3 explicitly investigates the influence of the above perceptions on women's entrepreneurial propensity. This research has drawn data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, a cross-national individual-level data set (2001-2006) covering 236,556 individuals across 17 countries. The results of this chapter suggest that gender disparities in entrepreneurial propensity are conditioned by differences in entrepreneurial perceptual variables. Women's lower levels of perceived entrepreneurial capability, entrepreneurial role models and opportunity evaluation and their higher fear of failure lead to lower entrepreneurial propensity.
To extend and generalise the relationship between perceptions and women's entrepreneurial propensity, in Chapter 4, two studies are conducted based on replicated research. Extension 1 generalises the results of KMS by using the same analysis on more recent data. Accordingly, this research implemented the same analysis on 372,069 individuals across the same countries (2011-2016). The recent data show that although gender disparity became significantly weaker, the gender gap is still in men's favour. However, similarly to the replicated study, this research revealed that perceptual factors explain a larger part of the gender disparity. To strengthen prior empirical evidence, in extension 2, utilising a sample of 1,029,863 individuals from 71 countries (2011-2016), the study conducted the same measures and analysis in a more global setting. By including developing countries, gender disparity in entrepreneurial propensity decreased significantly. The study revealed that the relative significance of the influences of perceptions' differs significantly across nations; however, perceptions have a worldwide effect. Moreover, this research found that the ratio of nascent women entrepreneurs in less developed countries to those in more developed nations is 2. More precisely, a higher level of economic development negatively influences the impact of perceptions on women's entrepreneurial propensity.
Whereas prior scholars increasingly underlined the importance of perceptions in explaining a large part of gender disparities in entrepreneurship, most of the prior investigations focused on nascent (early-stage) entrepreneurship, and evidence on the relationship between perceptions and other types of self-employment, such as innovative entrepreneurship, is scant. Innovation is a confirmed key driver of a firm's sustainability, higher competitive capability, and growth. Therefore, Chapter 5 investigates the influence of perceptions on women's innovative entrepreneurship. The chapter points out that entrepreneurial perceptions are the main determinants of the women's decision to offer a new product or service. This chapter also finds that women's innovative entrepreneurship is associated with the country's specific economic setting.
Overall, by underlining the critical role of institutional contexts, this dissertation provides considerable insights into the interaction between perceptions and women entrepreneurship, and its results have implications for policymakers and practitioners, who may find it helpful to consider women entrepreneurship in systemized challenges. Formal and informal barriers affect women's entrepreneurial perceptions and can differ from one country to the other. In this sense, it is crucial to design operational plans to mitigate formal and stereotypical challenges, and thus, more women will be able to start a business, particularly in developing countries in which women significantly comprise a smaller portion of the labour markets. This type of policy could write the "rules of the game" such that these rules enhance the women's propensity towards entrepreneurship.
Ausgehend von der zentralen Fragestellung nach den grenzüberschreitenden Beeinflussungsformen der Aachener Frühindustrialisierung kann in den untersuchten Bereichen der Eisenindustrie und des Maschinenbaus ein umfangreiches Beziehungsgeflecht zwischen dem Lütticher und dem Aachener Raum aufgezeigt werden. Neben wallonischen Unternehmern, die im Aachener Raum alleine oder mit rheinischen Kollegen Betriebe gründeten, kann eine Reihe von wallonischen Ingenieuren, Mechanikern, Hüttentechnikern, Arbeiterhandwerkern und Facharbeitern nachgewiesen werden, deren Bedeutung für den Technologietransfer der Frühindustrialisierung des Aachener Raumes nicht hoch genug eingeschätzt werden kann. Neben den personellen Beeinflussungsformen zeigt sich vor allem in der Eisenindustrie, die bereits in der frühindustriellen Phase durch einen großen Kapitalbedarf gekennzeichnet war, eine führende Rolle belgischer Kapitalisten bei der Finanzierung von Neugründungen und der Erweiterung bestehender Produktionsanlagen in der Betriebsform der Aktiengesellschaft. Insgesamt bewirkte die belgische Beeinflussung der Frühindustrialisierung eine wirtschaftliche Durchlöcherung der staatspolitischen Grenze von 1815. Dabei wurden privatwirtschaftliche Initiativen auf beiden Seiten der Grenze durch zoll- und wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen unterstützt.
In den letzten Jahren führte die intensive Forschung im Bereich der Hochleistungskommunikationsnetze zu kontinuierlichen technologischen Verbesserungen. Gegenwärtig ist eine schnell wachsende Nachfrage nach mobilen Kommunikationssystemen wie Mobiltelefonen oder kabellosen Computernetzen zu verzeichnen. Parallel zu diesen Entwicklungen stiegen die Anforderungen an die Methoden zur Leistungsanalyse derartiger Systeme. Die Warteschlangentheorie stellt klassische Modelle zur Analyse von Kommunikationsnetzen bereit. Ein Bereich in der modernen Warteschlangentheorie sind die Matrixanalytischen Methoden. Hier konzentriert sich die Forschung auf den Batch Markovian Arrival Process (BMAP), welcher äquivalent zu Neuts Versatile Markovian Point Process ist, und Warteschlangensysteme mit diesem Ankunftsprozeß. Der BMAP ist eine Verallgemeinerung des Poisson Prozesses, des Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) und des Markovian Arrival Process (MAP). Das BMAP/G/1 Warteschlangensystem wurde analysiert von Ramaswami (damals noch mit der Bezeichnung N/G/1) und Lucantoni. Weitere Varianten wurden später untersucht. Die bisher betrachteten Ankunftsprozesse sind räumlich homogen und somit unabhängig vom aktuellen Zustand des Warteschlangensystems. In modernen Kommunikationsnetzen, wie z.B. ATM, kann jedoch ein dynamisches Routing erfolgen, so daß der Ankunftsstrom in einen Knoten vom aktuellen Zustand dieses Knotens abhängt. Dies war unser Ausgangspunkt für die Definition eines Level-abhängigen BMAPs und die Analyse des BMAP/G/1 Warteschlangensystems mit Level-abhängigen Ankünften. Letzteres stellt eine Verallgemeinerung des klassischen BMAP/G/1 Warteschlangensystems dar. Es umfaßt auch das BMAP/G/1 Warteschlangensystem mit beschränktem Warteraum. Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit definieren wir einen Level-abhängigen BMAP und leiten wichtige Eigenschaften der Generatormatrix und der Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten her. Wir zeigen, daß die Übergangsmatrix des Level-abhängigen BMAPs die Vorwärts- und Rückwärtsdifferentialgleichungen erfüllt und somit als Matrixexponentialfunktion der Generatormatrix darstellbar ist. Der zweite Teil befaßt sich mit der Analyse des BMAP/G/1 Warteschlangensystems mit Level-abhängigen Ankünften. Dieses Warteschlangensystem und die zugehörigen stochastischen Prozesse werden in Kapitel 2 eingeführt. Um die Grenzverteilung der Warteschlangenlänge zu bestimmen, verwenden wir die Methode der eingebetteten Markov Kette. In Kapitel 3 bestimmen wir die Einträge der Übergangsmatrix der eingebetteten Markov Kette und die mittlere Zahl Ankünfte während einer Bedienzeit. Stabilitätsbedingungen für das BMAP/G/1 Warteschlangensystem mit Level- abhängigen Ankünften werden durch Anwendung eines verallgemeinerten Foster Kriteriums hergeleitet. Im Level-unabhängigen Fall spielt die Fundamentalperiodenmatrix G die Hauptrolle bei der Bestimmung der Gleichgewichtsverteilung. In unserem Fall hängen die Fundamentalperioden vom Anfangslevel k ab. Daher erhalten wir verschiedene Fundamentalperiodenmatrizen G ( k ) für alle Level k >= 1 . Wir leiten zwei Algorithmen zur Berechnung dieser Matrizen her. Weiterhin zeigen wir, daß die Vektoren der mittleren Anzahlen Bedienabschlüsse während einer Fundamentalperiode die eindeutige Lösung eines unendlich - dimensionalen Systems linearer Gleichungen bilden. Mit diesen Ergebnissen kann die stationäre Verteilung der Warteschlangenlänge zu Bedienabschlußzeitpunkten bestimmt werden. Wir wenden ein Ergebnis aus der Theorie der Semi-Markov Prozesse an, um die Gleichgewichtswahrscheinlichkeiten für Level 0 zu erhalten. Um die Gleichgewichtswahrscheinlichkeiten der übrigen Level zu berechnen, verallgemeinern wir die Formel von Ramaswami. Die Grenzverteilung der Warteschlangenlänge zu beliebigen Zeitpunkten wird unter Verwendung des Hauptsatzes der Erneuerungstheorie hergeleitet. Im dritten Teil betrachten wir einige Spezialfälle. Zunächst nehmen wir an, daß der Phasenprozeß Level-unabhängig sei. In diesem Fall können wir einige unserer Ergebnisse erweitern. Insbesondere leiten wir eine stärkere Stabilitätsbedingung her. Wir beenden diesen Teil, indem wir zeigen, daß unsere Ergebnisse mit den für das klassische BMAP/G/1 Warteschlangensystem und das BMAP/G/1 Warteschlangensystem mit beschränktem Warteraum übereinstimmen. Zum Abschluß dieser Arbeit geben wir einige Hinweise für weitere Forschungen.