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Surveys are commonly tailored to produce estimates of aggregate statistics with a desired level of precision. This may lead to very small sample sizes for subpopulations of interest, defined geographically or by content, which are not incorporated into the survey design. We refer to subpopulations where the sample size is too small to provide direct estimates with adequate precision as small areas or small domains. Despite the small sample sizes, reliable small area estimates are needed for economic and political decision making. Hence, model-based estimation techniques are used which increase the effective sample size by borrowing strength from other areas to provide accurate information for small areas. The paragraph above introduced small area estimation as a field of survey statistics where two conflicting philosophies of statistical inference meet: the design-based and the model-based approach. While the first approach is well suited for the precise estimation of aggregate statistics, the latter approach furnishes reliable small area estimates. In most applications, estimates for both large and small domains based on the same sample are needed. This poses a challenge to the survey planner, as the sampling design has to reflect different and potentially conflicting requirements simultaneously. In order to enable efficient design-based estimates for large domains, the sampling design should incorporate information related to the variables of interest. This may be achieved using stratification or sampling with unequal probabilities. Many model-based small area techniques require an ignorable sampling design such that after conditioning on the covariates the variable of interest does not contain further information about the sample membership. If this condition is not fulfilled, biased model-based estimates may result, as the model which holds for the sample is different from the one valid for the population. Hence, an optimisation of the sampling design without investigating the implications for model-based approaches will not be sufficient. Analogously, disregarding the design altogether and focussing only on the model is prone to failure as well. Instead, a profound knowledge of the interplay between the sample design and statistical modelling is a prerequisite for implementing an effective small area estimation strategy. In this work, we concentrate on two approaches to address this conflict. Our first approach takes the sampling design as given and can be used after the sample has been collected. It amounts to incorporate the survey design into the small area model to avoid biases stemming from informative sampling. Thus, once a model is validated for the sample, we know that it holds for the population as well. We derive such a procedure under a lognormal mixed model, which is a popular choice when the support of the dependent variable is limited to positive values. Besides, we propose a three pillar strategy to select the additional variable accounting for the design, based on a graphical examination of the relationship, a comparison of the predictive accuracy of the choices and a check regarding the normality assumptions.rnrnOur second approach to deal with the conflict is based on the notion that the design should allow applying a wide variety of analyses using the sample data. Thus, if the use of model-based estimation strategies can be anticipated before the sample is drawn, this should be reflected in the design. The same applies for the estimation of national statistics using design-based approaches. Therefore, we propose to construct the design such that the sampling mechanism is non-informative but allows for precise design-based estimates at an aggregate level.
In this thesis, we present a new approach for estimating the effects of wind turbines for a local bat population. We build an individual based model (IBM) which simulates the movement behaviour of every single bat of the population with its own preferences, foraging behaviour and other species characteristics. This behaviour is normalized by a Monte-Carlo simulation which gives us the average behaviour of the population. The result is an occurrence map of the considered habitat which tells us how often the bat and therefore the considered bat population frequent every region of this habitat. Hence, it is possible to estimate the crossing rate of the position of an existing or potential wind turbine. We compare this individual based approach with a partial differential equation based method. This second approach produces a lower computational effort but, unfortunately, we lose information about the movement trajectories at the same time. Additionally, the PDE based model only gives us a density profile. Hence, we lose the information how often each bat crosses special points in the habitat in one night. In a next step we predict the average number of fatalities for each wind turbine in the habitat, depending on the type of the wind turbine and the behaviour of the considered bat species. This gives us the extra mortality caused by the wind turbines for the local population. This value is used for a population model and finally we can calculate whether the population still grows or if there already is a decline in population size which leads to the extinction of the population. Using the combination of all these models, we are able to evaluate the conflict of wind turbines and bats and to predict the result of this conflict. Furthermore, it is possible to find better positions for wind turbines such that the local bat population has a better chance to survive. Since bats tend to move in swarm formations under certain circumstances, we introduce swarm simulation using partial integro-differential equations. Thereby, we have a closer look at existence and uniqueness properties of solutions.