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- time series analysis (2)
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The main research question of this thesis was to set up a framework to allow for the identification of land use changes in drylands and reveal their underlying drivers. The concept of describing land cover change processes in a framework of global change syndrome was introduced by Schellnhuber et al. (1997). In a first step the syndrome approach was implemented for semi-natural areas of the Iberian Peninsula based on time series analysis of the MEDOKADS archive. In the subsequent study the approach was expanded and adapted to other land cover strata. Furthermore, results of an analysis of the relationship of annual NDVI and rainfall data were incorporated to designate areas that show a significant relationship indicating that at least a part of the variability found in NDVI time series was caused by precipitation. Additionally, a first step was taken towards the integration of socio-economic data into the analysis; population density changes between 1961 and 2008 were utilized to support the identification of processes related to land abandonment accompanied by cessation of agricultural practices on the one hand and urbanization on the other. The main findings of the studies comprise three major land cover change processes caused by human interaction: (i) shrub and woody vegetation encroachment in the wake of land abandonment of marginal areas, (ii) intensification of non-irrigated and irrigated, intensively used fertile regions and (iii) urbanization trends along the coastline caused by migration and the increase of mass tourism. Land abandonment of cultivated fields and the give-up of grazing areas in marginal mountainous areas often lead to the encroachment of shrubs and woody vegetation in the course of succession or reforestation. Whereas this cover change has positive effects concerning soil stabilization and carbon sequestration the increase of biomass involves also negative consequences for ecosystem goods and services; these include decreased water yield as a result of increased evapotranspiration, increasing fire risk, decreasing biodiversity due to landscape homogenization and loss of aesthetic value. Arable land in intensively used fertile zones of Spain was further intensified including the expansion of irrigated arable land. The intensification of agriculture has also generated land abandonment in these areas because less people are needed in the agricultural labour sector due to mechanization. Urbanization effects due to migration and the growth of the tourism sector were mapped along the eastern Mediterranean coast. Urban sprawl was only partly detectable by means of the MEDOKADS archive as the changes of urbanization are often too subtle to be detected by data with a spatial resolution of 1 km-². This is in line with a comparison of a Landsat TM time series and the NOAA AVHRR archive for a study area in the Greece that showed that small scale changes cannot be detected based on this approach, even though they might be of high relevance for local management of resources. This underlines the fact that land degradation processes are multi-scale problems and that data of several spatial and temporal scales are mandatory to build a comprehensive dryland observation system. Further land cover processes related to a decrease of greenness did not play an important role in the observation period. Thus, only few patches were identified, suggesting that no large-scale land degradation processes are taking place in the sense of decline of primary productivity after disturbances. Nevertheless, the land cover processes detected impact ecosystem functioning and using the example of shrub encroachment, bear risks for the provision of goods and services which can be valued as land degradation in the sense of a decline of important ecosystem goods and services. This risk is not only confined to the affected ecosystem itself but can also impact adjacent ecosystems due to inter-linkages. In drylands water availability is of major importance and the management of water resources is an important political issue. In view of climate change this topic will become even more important because aridity in Spain did increase within the last decades and is likely to further do so. In addition, the land cover changes detected by the syndrome approach could even augment water scarcity problems. Whereas the water yield of marginal areas, which often serve as headwaters of rivers, decreases with increasing biomass, water demand of agriculture and tourism is not expected to decline. In this context it will be of major importance to evaluate the trade-offs between different land uses and to take decisions that maintain the future functioning of the ecosystems for human well-being.
Dry tropical forests undergo massive conversion and degradation processes. This also holds true for the extensive Miombo forests that cover large parts of Southern Africa. While the largest proportional area can be found in Angola, the country still struggles with food shortages, insufficient medical and educational supplies, as well as the ongoing reconstruction of infrastructure after 27 years of civil war. Especially in rural areas, the local population is therefore still heavily dependent on the consumption of natural resources, as well as subsistence agriculture. This leads, on one hand, to large areas of Miombo forests being converted for cultivation purposes, but on the other hand, to degradation processes due to the selective use of forest resources. While forest conversion in south-central rural Angola has already been quantitatively described, information about forest degradation is not yet available. This is due to the history of conflicts and the therewith connected research difficulties, as well as the remote location of this area. We apply an annual time series approach using Landsat data in south-central Angola not only to assess the current degradation status of the Miombo forests, but also to derive past developments reaching back to times of armed conflicts. We use the Disturbance Index based on tasseled cap transformation to exclude external influences like inter-annual variation of rainfall. Based on this time series, linear regression is calculated for forest areas unaffected by conversion, but also for the pre-conversion period of those areas that were used for cultivation purposes during the observation time. Metrics derived from linear regression are used to classify the study area according to their dominant modification processes.rnWe compare our results to MODIS latent integral trends and to further products to derive information on underlying drivers. Around 13% of the Miombo forests are affected by degradation processes, especially along streets, in villages, and close to existing agriculture. However, areas in presumably remote and dense forest areas are also affected to a significant extent. A comparison with MODIS derived fire ignition data shows that they are most likely affected by recurring fires and less by selective timber extraction. We confirm that areas that are used for agriculture are more heavily disturbed by selective use beforehand than those that remain unaffected by conversion. The results can be substantiated by the MODIS latent integral trends and we also show that due to extent and location, the assessment of forest conversion is most likely not sufficient to provide good estimates for the loss of natural resources.