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Monetary Policy During Times of Crisis - Frictions and Non-Linearities in the Transmission Mechanism
(2017)
For a long time it was believed that monetary policy would be able to maintain price stability and foster economic growth during all phases of the business cycle. The era of the Great Moderation, often also called the Volcker-Greenspan period, beginning in the mid 1980s was characterized by a decline in volatility of output growth and inflation among the industrialized countries. The term itself is first used by Stock and Watson (2003). Economist have long studied what triggered the decline in volatility and pointed out several main factors. An important research strand points out structural changes in the economy, such as a decline of volatility in the goods producing sector through better inventory controls and developments in the financial sector and government spending (McConnell2000, Blanchard2001, Stock2003, Kim2004, Davis2008). While many believed that monetary policy was only 'lucky' in terms of their reaction towards inflation and exogenous shocks (Stock2003, Primiceri2005, Sims2006, Gambetti2008), others reveal a more complex picture of the story. Rule based monetary policy (Taylor1993) that incorporates inflation targeting (Svensson1999) has been identified as a major source of inflation stabilization by increasing transparency (Clarida2000, Davis2008, Benati2009, Coibion2011). Apart from that, the mechanics of monetary policy transmission have changed. Giannone et al. (2008) compare the pre-Great Moderation era with the Great Modertation and find that the economies reaction towards monetary shocks has decreased. This finding is supported by Boivin et al. (2011). Similar to this, Herrera and Pesavento (2009) show that monetary policy during the Volcker-Greenspan period was very effective in dampening the effects of exogenous oil price shocks on the economy, while this cannot be found for the period thereafter. Yet, the subprime crisis unexpectedly hit worldwide economies and ended the era of Great Moderation. Financial deregulation and innovation has given banks opportunities for excessive risk taking, weakened financial stability (Crotty2009, Calomiris2009) and led to the build-up of credit-driven asset price bubbles (SchularickTaylor2012). The Federal Reserve (FED), that was thought to be the omnipotent conductor of price stability and economic growth during the Great Moderation, failed at preventing a harsh crisis. Even more, it did intensify the bubble with low interest rates following the Dotcom crisis of the early 2000s and misjudged the impact of its interventions (Taylor2009, Obstfeld2009). New results give a more detailed explanation on the question of latitude for monetary policy raised by Bernanke and suggest the existence of non-linearities in the transmission of monetary policy. Weise (1999), Garcia and Schaller (2002), Lo and Piger (2005), Mishkin (2009), Neuenkirch (2013) and Jannsen et al. (2015) find that monetary policy is more potent during times of financial distress and recessions. Its effectiveness during 'normal times' is much weaker or even insignificant. This prompts the question if these non-linearities limit central banks ability to lean against bubbles and financial imbalances (White2009, Walsh2009, Boivin2010, Mishkin2011).
Eine unabhängige Zentralbank auf europäischer Ebene war immer ein besonders deutsches Petitum. Seit 2010 ist die Unzufriedenheit mit der Geldpolitik der EZB jedoch gerade in Deutschland beständig gewachsen. Mit dem OMT-Programm vom September 2012 hat die EZB aus Sicht vieler Beobachter die Grenzen zulässiger Geldpolitik überschritten. Das Bundesverfassungsgericht hatte in seiner historischen ersten Vorlage an den Gerichtshof der Europäischen Union diese Auffassung geteilt; der Gerichtshof ist ihm aber nicht gefolgt und hat im Juni 2015 das OMT-Programm für europarechtskonform erachtet. Der vorliegende Beitrag – der auf einem Vortrag vor der abschließenden Bundesverfassungsgerichtsentscheidung beruhte – ordnet die Rechtsfragen des Verfahrens europarechtlich und verfassungsrechtlich ein. Die Entscheidung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts vom 21.06.2016 wird dabei punktuell noch berück sichtigt. Der Verfasser erläutert zunächst die für die Tätigkeit der EZB und ihre Aufgabe der Geldpolitik bestehenden europa- und verfassungsrechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen. Sodann stellt er die durch die Rechtsprechung des BVerfG entwickelten verfassungsrechtlichen Kontrollmaßstäbe dar, die zu einer Verschränkung der beiden Rechtsebenen führen können und eine Kontrolle der europäischen Integration durch das BVerfG ermöglichen. Schließlich widmet sich die Abhandlung dem durch die globale Finanzkrise seit den Jahren 2007/2008 und die sich hieran anschließende EURO-Staatsschuldenkrise eingetretenen Wandel der Geldpolitik insbesondere den von der EZB als Reaktion auf die anhaltende Krise eingesetzten „unconventional monetary policy measures“ und den hierzu bisher anhängigen Verfahren auf europäischer und nationaler Ebene. Ein besonderer Fokus liegt hierbei freilich auf dem OMT-Programm.
Structured Eurobonds - Optimal Construction, Impact on the Euro and the Influence of Interest Rates
(2020)
Structured Eurobonds are a prominent topic in the discussions how to complete the monetary and fiscal union. This work sheds light on several issues going hand in hand with the introduction of common bonds. At first a crucial question is on the optimal construction, e.g. what is the optimal common liability. Other questions that arise belong to the time after the introduction. The impact on several exchnage rates is examined in this work. Finally an approximation bias in forward-looking DSGE models is quantified which would lead to an adjustment of central bank interest rates and therefore has an impact on the other two topics.