Natural hazards are diverse and uneven in time and space, therefore, understanding its complexity is key to save human lives and conserve natural ecosystems. Reducing the outputs obtained after each modelling analysis is key to present the results for stakeholders, land managers and policymakers. So, the main goal of this survey was to present a method to synthesize three natural hazards in one multi-hazard map and its evaluation for hazard management and land use planning. To test this methodology, we took as study area the Gorganrood Watershed, located in the Golestan Province (Iran). First, an inventory map of three different types of hazards including flood, landslides, and gullies was prepared using field surveys and different official reports. To generate the susceptibility maps, a total of 17 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) machine learning technique. The accuracy of the predictive models was evaluated by drawing receiver operating characteristic-ROC curves and calculating the area under the ROC curve-AUCROC. The MaxEnt model not only implemented superbly in the degree of fitting, but also obtained significant results in predictive performance. Variables importance of the three studied types of hazards showed that river density, distance from streams, and elevation were the most important factors for flood, respectively. Lithological units, elevation, and annual mean rainfall were relevant for detecting landslides. On the other hand, annual mean rainfall, elevation, and lithological units were used for gully erosion mapping in this study area. Finally, by combining the flood, landslides, and gully erosion susceptibility maps, an integrated multi-hazard map was created. The results demonstrated that 60% of the area is subjected to hazards, reaching a proportion of landslides up to 21.2% in the whole territory. We conclude that using this type of multi-hazard map may be a useful tool for local administrators to identify areas susceptible to hazards at large scales as we demonstrated in this research.
The state-of-the-art finite element software Plaxis 3D was applied in a real-world study site of the Turaida castle mound to investigate the slope stability of the mound and understand the mechanisms triggering landslides there. During the simulation, the stability of the castle mound was analysed and the most landslide-susceptible zones of hillslopes were determined. The 3D finite-element stability analysis has significant advantages over conventional 2D limit-equilibrium methods where locations of 2D stability sections are arbitrarily selected. Two modelling scenarios of the slope stability were elaborated considering deep-seated slides in bedrock and shallow landslides in the colluvial material of slopes. The model shows that shallow slides in colluvium are more probable. In the finite-element model, slope failure occurs along the weakest zone in colluvium, similarly to the situation observed in previous landslides in the study site. The physical basis of the model allows results to be obtained very close to natural conditions and delivers valuable insight in triggering mechanisms of landslides.
Laboratory landslide experiments enable the observation of specific properties of these natural hazards. However, these observations are limited by traditional techniques: frequently used high-speed video analysis and wired sensors (e.g. displacement). These techniques lead to the drawback that either only the surface and 2D profiles can be observed or wires confine the motion behaviour. In contrast, an unconfined observation of the total spatiotemporal dynamics of landslides is needed for an adequate understanding of these natural hazards.
The present study introduces an autonomous and wireless probe to characterize motion features of single clasts within laboratory-scale landslides. The Smartstone probe is based on an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and records acceleration and rotation at a sampling rate of 100 Hz. The recording ranges are ±16 g (accelerometer) and ±2000∘ s−1 (gyroscope). The plastic tube housing is 55 mm long with a diameter of 10 mm. The probe is controlled, and data are read out via active radio frequency identification (active RFID) technology. Due to this technique, the probe works under low-power conditions, enabling the use of small button cell batteries and minimizing its size.
Using the Smartstone probe, the motion of single clasts (gravel size, median particle diameter d50 of 42 mm) within approx. 520 kg of a uniformly graded pebble material was observed in a laboratory experiment. Single pebbles were equipped with probes and placed embedded and superficially in or on the material. In a first analysis step, the data of one pebble are interpreted qualitatively, allowing for the determination of different transport modes, such as translation, rotation and saltation. In a second step, the motion is quantified by means of derived movement characteristics: the analysed pebble moves mainly in the vertical direction during the first motion phase with a maximal vertical velocity of approx. 1.7 m s−1. A strong acceleration peak of approx. 36 m s−2 is interpreted as a pronounced hit and leads to a complex rotational-motion pattern. In a third step, displacement is derived and amounts to approx. 1.0 m in the vertical direction. The deviation compared to laser distance measurements was approx. −10 %. Furthermore, a full 3D spatiotemporal trajectory of the pebble is reconstructed and visualized supporting the interpretations. Finally, it is demonstrated that multiple pebbles can be analysed simultaneously within one experiment. Compared to other observation methods Smartstone probes allow for the quantification of internal movement characteristics and, consequently, a motion sampling in landslide experiments.