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Sample surveys are a widely used and cost effective tool to gain information about a population under consideration. Nowadays, there is an increasing demand not only for information on the population level but also on the level of subpopulations. For some of these subpopulations of interest, however, very small subsample sizes might occur such that the application of traditional estimation methods is not expedient. In order to provide reliable information also for those so called small areas, small area estimation (SAE) methods combine auxiliary information and the sample data via a statistical model.
The present thesis deals, among other aspects, with the development of highly flexible and close to reality small area models. For this purpose, the penalized spline method is adequately modified which allows to determine the model parameters via the solution of an unconstrained optimization problem. Due to this optimization framework, the incorporation of shape constraints into the modeling process is achieved in terms of additional linear inequality constraints on the optimization problem. This results in small area estimators that allow for both the utilization of the penalized spline method as a highly flexible modeling technique and the incorporation of arbitrary shape constraints on the underlying P-spline function.
In order to incorporate multiple covariates, a tensor product approach is employed to extend the penalized spline method to multiple input variables. This leads to high-dimensional optimization problems for which naive solution algorithms yield an unjustifiable complexity in terms of runtime and in terms of memory requirements. By exploiting the underlying tensor nature, the present thesis provides adequate computationally efficient solution algorithms for the considered optimization problems and the related memory efficient, i.e. matrix-free, implementations. The crucial point thereby is the (repetitive) application of a matrix-free conjugated gradient method, whose runtime is drastically reduced by a matrx-free multigrid preconditioner.
A basic assumption of standard small area models is that the statistic of interest can be modelled through a linear mixed model with common model parameters for all areas in the study. The model can then be used to stabilize estimation. In some applications, however, there may be different subgroups of areas, with specific relationships between the response variable and auxiliary information. In this case, using a distinct model for each subgroup would be more appropriate than employing one model for all observations. If no suitable natural clustering variable exists, finite mixture regression models may represent a solution that „lets the data decide“ how to partition areas into subgroups. In this framework, a set of two or more different models is specified, and the estimation of subgroup-specific model parameters is performed simultaneously to estimating subgroup identity, or the probability of subgroup identity, for each area. Finite mixture models thus offer a fexible approach to accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Therefore, in this thesis, finite mixtures of small area models are proposed to account for the existence of latent subgroups of areas in small area estimation. More specifically, it is assumed that the statistic of interest is appropriately modelled by a mixture of K linear mixed models. Both mixtures of standard unit-level and standard area-level models are considered as special cases. The estimation of mixing proportions, area-specific probabilities of subgroup identity and the K sets of model parameters via the EM algorithm for mixtures of mixed models is described. Eventually, a finite mixture small area estimator is formulated as a weighted mean of predictions from model 1 to K, with weights given by the area-specific probabilities of subgroup identity.
The economic growth theory analyses which factors affect economic growth and tries to analyze how it can last. A popular neoclassical growth model is the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, which aims to determine how much of its income a nation or an economy should save in order to maximize its welfare. In this thesis, we present and analyze an extended capital accumulation equation of a spatial version of the Ramsey model, balancing diffusive and agglomerative effects. We model the capital mobility in space via a nonlocal diffusion operator which allows for jumps of the capital stock from one location to an other. Moreover, this operator smooths out heterogeneities in the factor distributions slower, which generated a more realistic behavior of capital flows. In addition to that, we introduce an endogenous productivity-production operator which depends on time and on the capital distribution in space. This operator models the technological progress of the economy. The resulting mathematical model is an optimal control problem under a semilinear parabolic integro-differential equation with initial and volume constraints, which are a nonlocal analog to local boundary conditions, and box-constraints on the state and the control variables. In this thesis, we consider this problem on a bounded and unbounded spatial domain, in both cases with a finite time horizon. We derive existence results of weak solutions for the capital accumulation equations in both settings and we proof the existence of a Ramsey equilibrium in the unbounded case. Moreover, we solve the optimal control problem numerically and discuss the results in the economic context.
The harmonic Faber operator
(2018)
P. K. Suetin points out in the beginning of his monograph "Faber Polynomials and Faber Series" that Faber polynomials play an important role in modern approximation theory of a complex variable as they are used in representing analytic functions in simply connected domains, and many theorems on approximation of analytic functions are proved with their help [50]. In 1903, the Faber polynomials were firstly discovered by G. Faber. It was Faber's aim to find a generalisation of Taylor series of holomorphic functions in the open unit disc D in the following way. As any holomorphic function in D has a Taylor series representation f(z)=\sum_{\nu=0}^{\infty}a_{\nu}z^{\nu} (z\in\D) converging locally uniformly inside D, for a simply connected domain G, Faber wanted to determine a system of polynomials (Q_n) such that each function f being holomorphic in G can be expanded into a series
f=\sum_{\nu=0}^{\infty}b_{\nu}Q_{\nu} converging locally uniformly inside G. Having this goal in mind, Faber considered simply connected domains bounded by an analytic Jordan curve. He constructed a system of polynomials (F_n) with this property. These polynomials F_n were named after him as Faber polynomials. In the preface of [50], a detailed summary of results concerning Faber polynomials and results obtained by the aid of them is given. An important application of Faber polynomials is e.g. the transfer of known assertions concerning polynomial approximation of functions belonging to the disc algebra to results of the approximation of functions being continuous on a compact continuum K which contains at least two points and has a connected complement and being holomorphic in the interior of K. In this field, the Faber operator denoted by T turns out to be a powerful tool (for an introduction, see e.g. D. Gaier's monograph). It
assigns a polynomial of degree at most n given in the monomial basis \sum_{\nu=0}^{n}a_{\nu}z^{\nu} with a polynomial of degree at most n given in the basis of Faber polynomials \sum_{\nu=0}^{n}a_{\nu}F_{\nu}. If the Faber operator is continuous with respect to the uniform norms, it has a unique continuous extension to an operator mapping the disc algebra onto the space of functions being continuous on the whole compact continuum and holomorphic in its interior. For all f being element of the disc algebra and all polynomials P, via the obvious estimate for the uniform norms ||T(f)-T(P)||<= ||T|| ||f-P||, it can be seen that the original task of approximating F=T(f) by polynomials is reduced to the polynomial approximation of the function f. Therefore, the question arises under which conditions the Faber operator is continuous and surjective. A fundamental result in this regard was established by J. M. Anderson and J. Clunie who showed that if the compact continuum is bounded by a rectifiable Jordan curve with bounded boundary rotation and free from cusps, then the Faber operator with respect to the uniform norms is a topological isomorphism. Now, let f be a harmonic function in D. Similar as above, we find that f has a uniquely determined representation f=\sum_{\nu=-\infty}^{\infty}a_{\nu}p_{\nu}
converging locally uniformly inside D where p_{n}(z)=z^{n} for n\in\N_{0} and p_{-n}(z)=\overline{z}^{n} for n\in\N}. One may ask whether there is an analogue for harmonic functions on simply connected domains G. Indeed, for a domain G bounded by an analytic Jordan curve, the conjecture that each function f being harmonic in G has a uniquely determined representation f=\sum_{\nu= \infty}^{\infty}b_{\nu}F_{\nu} where F_{-n}(z)=\overline{F_{n}(z\)} for n\inN, converging locally uniformly inside G, holds true. Let now K be a compact continuum containing at least two points and having a connected complement. A main component of this thesis will be the examination of the harmonic Faber operator mapping a harmonic polynomial given in the basis of the harmonic monomials \sum_{\nu=-n}^{n}a_{\nu}p_{\nu} to a harmonic polynomial given as \sum_{\nu=-n}^{n}a_{\nu}F_{\nu}.
If this operator, which is based on an idea of J. Müller, is continuous with respect to the uniform norms, it has a unique continuous extension to an operator mapping the functions being continuous on \partial\D onto the continuous functions on K being
harmonic in the interior of K. Harmonic Faber polynomials and the harmonic Faber operator will be the objects accompanying us throughout
our whole discussion. After having given an overview about notations and certain tools we will use in our consideration in the first chapter, we begin our studies with an introduction to the Faber operator and the harmonic Faber operator. We start modestly and consider domains bounded by an analytic Jordan curve. In Section 2, as a first result, we will show that, for such a domain G, the harmonic Faber operator has a unique continuous extension to an operator mapping the space of the harmonic functions in D onto the space
of the harmonic functions in G, and moreover, the harmonic Faber
operator is an isomorphism with respect to the topologies of locally
uniform convergence. In the further sections of this chapter, we illumine the behaviour of the (harmonic) Faber operator on certain function spaces. In the third chapter, we leave the situation of compact continua bounded by an analytic Jordan curve. Instead we consider closures of domains bounded by Jordan curves having a Dini continuous curvature. With the aid of the concept of compact operators and the Fredholm alternative, we are able to show that the harmonic Faber operator is a topological isomorphism. Since, in particular, the main result of the third chapter holds true for closures K of domains bounded by analytic Jordan curves, we can make use of it to obtain new results concerning the approximation of functions being continuous on K and harmonic in the interior of K by harmonic polynomials. To do so, we develop techniques applied by L. Frerick and J. Müller in [11] and adjust them to our setting. So, we can transfer results about the classic Faber operator to the harmonic Faber operator. In the last chapter, we will use the theory of harmonic Faber polynomials
to solve certain Dirichlet problems in the complex plane. We pursue
two different approaches: First, with a similar philosophy as in [50],
we develop a procedure to compute the coefficients of a series \sum_{\nu=-\infty}^{\infty}c_{\nu}F_{\nu} converging uniformly to the solution of a given Dirichlet problem. Later, we will point out how semi-infinite programming with harmonic Faber polynomials as ansatz functions can be used to get an approximate solution of a given Dirichlet problem. We cover both approaches first from a theoretical point of view before we have a focus on the numerical implementation of concrete examples. As application of the numerical computations, we considerably obtain visualisations of the concerned Dirichlet problems rounding out our discussion about the harmonic Faber polynomials and the harmonic Faber operator.
This doctoral thesis examines intergenerational knowledge, its antecedents as well as how participation in intergenerational knowledge transfer is related to the performance evaluation of employees. To answer these questions, this doctoral thesis builds on a literature review and quantitative research methods. A systematic literature study shows that empirical evidence on intergenerational knowledge transfer is limited. Building on prior literature, effects of various antecedents at the interpersonal and organizational level regarding their effects on intergenerational and intragenerational knowledge transfer are postulated. By questioning 444 trainees and trainers, this doctoral thesis also demonstrates that interpersonal antecedents impact how trainees participate in intergenerational knowledge transfer with their trainers. Thereby, the results of this study provide support that interpersonal antecedents are relevant for intergenerational knowledge transfer, yet, also emphasize the implications attached to the assigned roles in knowledge transfer (i.e., whether one is a trainee or trainer). Moreover, the results of an experimental vignette study reveal that participation in intergenerational knowledge transfer is linked to the performance evaluation of employees, yet, is susceptible to whether the employee is sharing or seeking knowledge. Overall, this doctoral thesis provides insights into this topic by covering a multitude of antecedents of intergenerational knowledge transfer, as well as how participation in intergenerational knowledge transfer may be associated with the performance evaluation of employees.
In the modeling context, non-linearities and uncertainty go hand in hand. In fact, the utility function's curvature determines the degree of risk-aversion. This concept is exploited in the first article of this thesis, which incorporates uncertainty into a small-scale DSGE model. More specifically, this is done by a second-order approximation, while carrying out the derivation in great detail and carefully discussing the more formal aspects. Moreover, the consequences of this method are discussed when calibrating the equilibrium condition. The second article of the thesis considers the essential model part of the first paper and focuses on the (forward-looking) data needed to meet the model's requirements. A large number of uncertainty measures are utilized to explain a possible approximation bias. The last article keeps to the same topic but uses statistical distributions instead of actual data. In addition, theoretical (model) and calibrated (data) parameters are used to produce more general statements. In this way, several relationships are revealed with regard to a biased interpretation of this class of models. In this dissertation, the respective approaches are explained in full detail and also how they build on each other.
In summary, the question remains whether the exact interpretation of model equations should play a role in macroeconomics. If we answer this positively, this work shows to what extent the practical use can lead to biased results.
This dissertation is dedicated to the analysis of the stabilty of portfolio risk and the impact of European regulation introducing risk based classifications for investment funds.
The first paper examines the relationship between portfolio size and the stability of mutual fund risk measures, presenting evidence for economies of scale in risk management. In a unique sample of 338 fund portfolios we find that the volatility of risk numbers decreases for larger funds. This finding holds for dispersion as well as tail risk measures. Further analyses across asset classes provide evidence for the robustness of the effect for balanced and fixed income portfolios. However, a size effect did not emerge for equity funds, suggesting that equity fund managers simply scale their strategy up as they grow. Analyses conducted on the differences in risk stability between tail risk measures and volatilities reveal that smaller funds show higher discrepancies in that respect. In contrast to the majority of prior studies on the basis of ex-post time series risk numbers, this study contributes to the literature by using ex-ante risk numbers based on the actual assets and de facto portfolio data.
The second paper examines the influence of European legislation regarding risk classification of mutual funds. We conduct analyses on a set of worldwide equity indices and find that a strategy based on the long term volatility as it is imposed by the Synthetic Risk Reward Indicator (SRRI) would lead to substantial variations in exposures ranging from short phases of very high leverage to long periods of under investments that would be required to keep the risk classes. In some cases, funds will be forced to migrate to higher risk classes due to limited means to reduce volatilities after crises events. In other cases they might have to migrate to lower risk classes or increase their leverage to ridiculous amounts. Overall, we find if the SRRI creates a binding mechanism for fund managers, it will create substantial interference with the core investment strategy and may incur substantial deviations from it. Fruthermore due to the forced migrations the SRRI degenerates to a passive indicator.
The third paper examines the impact of this volatility based fund classification on portfolio performance. Using historical data on equity indices we find initially that a strategy based on long term portfolio volatility, as it is imposed by the Synthetic Risk Reward Indicator (SRRI), yields better Sharpe Ratios (SRs) and Buy and Hold Returns (BHRs) for the investment strategies matching the risk classes. Accounting for the Fama-French factors reveals no significant alphas for the vast majority of the strategies. In our simulation study where volatility was modelled through a GJR(1,1) - model we find no significant difference in mean returns, but significantly lower SRs for the volatility based strategies. These results were confirmed in robustness checks using alternative models and timeframes. Overall we present evidence which suggests that neither the higher leverage induced by the SRRI nor the potential protection in downside markets does pay off on a risk adjusted basis.