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Monetary Policy During Times of Crisis - Frictions and Non-Linearities in the Transmission Mechanism
(2017)
For a long time it was believed that monetary policy would be able to maintain price stability and foster economic growth during all phases of the business cycle. The era of the Great Moderation, often also called the Volcker-Greenspan period, beginning in the mid 1980s was characterized by a decline in volatility of output growth and inflation among the industrialized countries. The term itself is first used by Stock and Watson (2003). Economist have long studied what triggered the decline in volatility and pointed out several main factors. An important research strand points out structural changes in the economy, such as a decline of volatility in the goods producing sector through better inventory controls and developments in the financial sector and government spending (McConnell2000, Blanchard2001, Stock2003, Kim2004, Davis2008). While many believed that monetary policy was only 'lucky' in terms of their reaction towards inflation and exogenous shocks (Stock2003, Primiceri2005, Sims2006, Gambetti2008), others reveal a more complex picture of the story. Rule based monetary policy (Taylor1993) that incorporates inflation targeting (Svensson1999) has been identified as a major source of inflation stabilization by increasing transparency (Clarida2000, Davis2008, Benati2009, Coibion2011). Apart from that, the mechanics of monetary policy transmission have changed. Giannone et al. (2008) compare the pre-Great Moderation era with the Great Modertation and find that the economies reaction towards monetary shocks has decreased. This finding is supported by Boivin et al. (2011). Similar to this, Herrera and Pesavento (2009) show that monetary policy during the Volcker-Greenspan period was very effective in dampening the effects of exogenous oil price shocks on the economy, while this cannot be found for the period thereafter. Yet, the subprime crisis unexpectedly hit worldwide economies and ended the era of Great Moderation. Financial deregulation and innovation has given banks opportunities for excessive risk taking, weakened financial stability (Crotty2009, Calomiris2009) and led to the build-up of credit-driven asset price bubbles (SchularickTaylor2012). The Federal Reserve (FED), that was thought to be the omnipotent conductor of price stability and economic growth during the Great Moderation, failed at preventing a harsh crisis. Even more, it did intensify the bubble with low interest rates following the Dotcom crisis of the early 2000s and misjudged the impact of its interventions (Taylor2009, Obstfeld2009). New results give a more detailed explanation on the question of latitude for monetary policy raised by Bernanke and suggest the existence of non-linearities in the transmission of monetary policy. Weise (1999), Garcia and Schaller (2002), Lo and Piger (2005), Mishkin (2009), Neuenkirch (2013) and Jannsen et al. (2015) find that monetary policy is more potent during times of financial distress and recessions. Its effectiveness during 'normal times' is much weaker or even insignificant. This prompts the question if these non-linearities limit central banks ability to lean against bubbles and financial imbalances (White2009, Walsh2009, Boivin2010, Mishkin2011).
This dissertation looked at both design-based and model-based estimation for rare and clustered populations using the idea of the ACS design. The ACS design (Thompson, 2012, p. 319) starts with an initial sample that is selected by a probability sampling method. If any of the selected units meets a pre-specified condition, its neighboring units are added to the sample and observed. If any of the added units meets the pre-specified condition, its neighboring units are further added to the sample and observed. The procedure continues until there are no more units that meet the pre-specified condition. In this dissertation, the pre-specified condition is the detection of at least one animal in a selected unit. In the design-based estimation, three estimators were proposed under three specific design setting. The first design was stratified strip ACS design that is suitable for aerial or ship surveys. This was a case study in estimating population totals of African elephants. In this case, units/quadrant were observed only once during an aerial survey. The Des Raj estimator (Raj, 1956) was modified to obtain an unbiased estimate of the population total. The design was evaluated using simulated data with different levels of rarity and clusteredness. The design was also evaluated on real data of African elephants that was obtained from an aerial census conducted in parts of Kenya and Tanzania in October (dry season) 2013. In this study, the order in which the samples were observed was maintained. Re-ordering the samples by making use of the Murthy's estimator (Murthy, 1957) can produce more efficient estimates. Hence a possible extension of this study. The computation cost resulting from the n! permutations in the Murthy's estimator however, needs to be put into consideration. The second setting was when there exists an auxiliary variable that is negatively correlated with the study variable. The Murthy's estimator (Murthy, 1964) was modified. Situations when the modified estimator is preferable was given both in theory and simulations using simulated and two real data sets. The study variable for the real data sets was the distribution and counts of oryx and wildbeest. This was obtained from an aerial census that was conducted in parts of Kenya and Tanzania in October (dry season) 2013. Temperature was the auxiliary variable for two study variables. Temperature data was obtained from R package raster. The modified estimator provided more efficient estimates with lower bias compared to the original Murthy's estimator (Murthy, 1964). The modified estimator was also more efficient compared to the modified HH and the modified HT estimators of (Thompson, 2012, p. 319). In this study, one auxiliary variable is considered. A fruitful area for future research would be to incorporate multi-auxiliary information at the estimation phase of an ACS design. This could, in principle, be done by using for instance a multivariate extension of the product estimator (Singh, 1967) or by using the generalized regression estimator (Särndal et al., 1992). The third case under design-based estimation, studied the conjoint use of the stopping rule (Gattone and Di Battista, 2011) and the use of the without replacement of clusters (Dryver and Thompson, 2007). Each of these two methods was proposed to reduce the sampling cost though the use of the stopping rule results in biased estimates. Despite this bias, the new estimator resulted in higher efficiency gain in comparison to the without replacement of cluster design. It was also more efficient compared to the stratified design which is known to reduce final sample size when networks are truncated at stratum boundaries. The above evaluation was based on simulated and real data. The real data was the distribution and counts of hartebeest, elephants and oryx obtained in the same census as above. The bias attributed by the stopping rule has not been evaluated analytically. This may not be direct since the truncated network formed depends on the initial unit sampled (Gattone et al., 2016a). This and the order of the bias however, deserves further investigation as it may help in understanding the effect of the increase in the initial sample size together with the population characteristics on the efficiency of the proposed estimator. Chapter four modeled data that was obtained using the stratified strip ACS (as described in sub-section (3.1)). This was an extension of the model of Rapley and Welsh (2008) by modeling data that was obtained from a different design, the introduction of an auxiliary variable and the use of the without replacement of clusters mechanism. Ideally, model-based estimation does not depend on the design or rather how the sample was obtained. This is however, not the case if the design is informative; such as the ACS design. In this case, the procedure that was used to obtain the sample was incorporated in the model. Both model-based and design-based simulations were conducted using artificial and real data. The study and the auxiliary variable for the real data was the distribution and counts of elephants collected during an aerial census in parts of Kenya and Tanzania in October (dry season) and April (wet season) 2013 respectively. Areas of possible future research include predicting the population total of African elephants in all parks in Kenya. This can be achieved in an economical and reliable way by using the theory of SAE. Chapter five compared the different proposed strategies using the elephant data. Again the study variable was the elephant data from October (dry season) 2013 and the auxiliary variable was the elephant data from April (wet season) 2013. The results show that the choice of particular strategy to use depends on the characteristic of the population under study and the level and the direction of the correlation between the study and the auxiliary variable (if present). One general area of the ACS design that is still behind, is the implementation of the design in the field especially on animal populations. This is partly attributed by the challenges associated with the field implementation, some of which were discussed in section 2.3. Green et al. (2010) however, provides new insights in undertaking the ACS design during an aerial survey such as how the aircraft should turn while surveying neighboring units. A key point throughout the dissertation is the reduction of cost during a survey which can be seen by the reduction in the number of units in the final sample (through the use of stopping rule, use of stratification and truncating networks at stratum boundaries) and ensuring that units are observed only once (by using the without replacement of cluster sampling technique). The cost of surveying an edge unit(s) is assumed to be low in which case the efficiency of the ACS design relative to the non-adaptive design is achieved (Thompson and Collins, 2002). This is however not the case in aerial surveys as the aircraft flies at constant speed and height (Norton-Griffiths, 1978). Hence the cost of surveying an edge unit is the same as the cost of surveying a unit that meets the condition of interest. The without replacement of cluster technique plays a greater role of reducing the cost of sampling in such surveys. Other key points that motivated the sections in the dissertation include gains in efficiency (in all sections) and practicability of the designs in the specific setting. Even though the dissertation focused on animal populations, the methods can as well be implemented in any population that is rare and clustered such as in the study of forestry, plants, pollution, minerals and so on.
The development of our society contributed to increased occurrence of emerging substances (pesticides, pharmaceuticals, personal care products, etc.) in wastewater. Because of their potential hazard on ecosystems and humans, Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs) need to adapt to better remove these compounds. Technology or policy development should however comply with sustainable development, e.g. based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) metrics. Nevertheless, the reliability or consistency of LCA results can sometimes be debatable. The main objective of this work was to explore how LCA can better support the implementation of innovative wastewater treatment options, in particular including removal benefits. The method was applied to support solutions for pharmaceuticals elimination from wastewater, regarding: (i) UV technology design, (ii) choice of advanced technology and (iii) centralized or decentralized treatment policy. The assessment approach followed by previous authors based on net impacts calculation seemed very promising to consider both environmental effects induced by treatment plant operation and environmental benefits obtained from pollutants removal. It was therefore applied to compare UV configuration types. LCA outcomes were consistent with degradation kinetics analysis. For the comparison of advanced technologies and policy scenarios, the common practice (net impacts based on EDIP method) was compared to other assessments, to better consider elimination benefits. First, USEtox consensus was applied for the avoided (eco)toxicity impacts, in combination with the recent method ReCiPe for generated impacts. Then, an eco-efficiency indicator (EFI) was developed to weigh the treatment efforts (generated impacts based on EDIP and ReCiPe methods) by the average removal efficiency (overcoming (eco)toxicity uncertainty issues). In total, the four types of comparative assessment showed the same trends: (i) ozonation and activated carbon perform better than UV irradiation, and (ii) no clear advantage distinguished between policy scenarios. It cannot be however concluded that advanced treatment of pharmaceuticals is not necessary because other criteria should be considered (risk assessment, bacterial resistance, etc.) and large uncertainties were embedded in calculations. Indeed, a significant part of this work was dedicated to the discussion of uncertainty and limitations of the LCA outcomes. At the inventory level, it was difficult to model technology operation at development stage. For impact assessment, the newly developed characterization factors for pharmaceuticals (eco)toxicity showed large uncertainties, mainly due to the lack of data and quality for toxicity tests. The use of information made available under REACH framework to develop CFs for detergent ingredients tried to cope with this issue but the benefits were limited due to the mismatch of information between REACH and USEtox method. The highlighted uncertainties were treated with sensitivity analyses to understand their effects on LCA results. This research work finally presents perspectives on the use of transparently generated data (technology inventory and (eco)toxicity factors) and further development of EFI indicator. Also, an accent is made on increasing the reliability of LCA outcomes, in particular through the implementation of advanced techniques for uncertainty management. To conclude, innovative technology/product development (e.g. based on circular economy approach) needs the involvement of all types of actors and the support from sustainability metrics.
Educational assessment tends to rely on more or less standardized tests, teacher judgments, and observations. Although teachers spend approximately half of their professional conduct in assessment-related activities, most of them enter their professional life unprepared, as classroom assessment is often not part of their educational training. Since teacher judgments matter for the educational development of students, the judgments should be up to a high standard. The present dissertation comprises three studies focusing on accuracy of teacher judgments (Study 1), consequences of (mis-)judgment regarding teacher nomination for gifted programming (Study 2) and teacher recommendations for secondary school tracks (Study 3), and individual student characteristics that impact and potentially bias teacher judgment (Studies 1 through 3). All studies were designed to contribute to a further understanding of classroom assessment skills of teachers. Overall, the results implied that, teacher judgment of cognitive ability was an important constant for teacher nominations and recommendations but lacked accuracy. Furthermore, teacher judgments of various traits and school achievement were substantially related to social background variables, especially the parents" educational background. However, multivariate analysis showed social background variables to impact nomination and recommendation only marginally if at all. All results indicated differentiated but potentially biased teacher judgments to impact their far-reaching referral decisions directly, while the influence of social background on the referral decisions itself seems mediated. Implications regarding further research practices and educational assessment strategies are discussed. The implications on the needs of teachers to be educated on judgment and educational assessment are of particular interest and importance.
The main achievement of this thesis is an analysis of the accuracy of computations with Loader's algorithm for the binomial density. This analysis in later progress of work could be used for a theorem about the numerical accuracy of algorithms that compute rectangle probabilities for scan statistics of a multinomially distributed random variable. An example that shall illustrate the practical use of probabilities for scan statistics is the following, which arises in epidemiology: Let n patients arrive at a clinic in d = 365 days, each of the patients with probability 1/d at each of these d days and all patients independently from each other. The knowledge of the probability, that there exist 3 adjacent days, in which together more than k patients arrive, helps deciding, after observing data, if there is a cluster which we would not suspect to have occurred randomly but for which we suspect there must be a reason. Formally, this epidemiological example can be described by a multinomial model. As multinomially distributed random variables are examples of Markov increments, which is a fact already used implicitly by Corrado (2011) to compute the distribution function of the multinomial maximum, we can use a generalized version of Corrado's Algorithm to compute the probability described in our example. To compute its result, the algorithm for rectangle probabilities for Markov increments always uses transition probabilities of the corresponding Markov Chain. In the multinomial case, the transition probabilities of the corresponding Markov Chain are binomial probabilities. Therefore, we start an analysis of accuracy of Loader's algorithm for the binomial density, which for example the statistical software R uses. With the help of accuracy bounds for the binomial density we would be able to derive accuracy bounds for the computation of rectangle probabilities for scan statistics of multinomially distributed random variables. To figure out how sharp derived accuracy bounds are, in examples these can be compared to rigorous upper bounds and rigorous lower bounds which we obtain by interval-arithmetical computations.
It is generally assumed that the temperature increase associated with global climate change will lead to increased thunderstorm intensity and associated heavy precipitation events. In the present study it is investigated whether the frequency of thunderstorm occurrences will in- or decrease and how the spatial distribution will change for the A1B scenario. The region of interest is Central Europe with a special focus on the Saar-Lor-Lux region (Saarland, Lorraine, Luxembourg) and Rhineland-Palatinate.Daily model data of the COSMO-CLM with a horizontal resolution of 4.5 km is used. The simulations were carried out for two different time slices: 1971"2000 (C20), and 2071"2100 (A1B). Thunderstorm indices are applied to detect thunderstorm-prone conditions and differences in their frequency of occurrence in the two thirty years timespans. The indices used are CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), SLI (Surface Lifted Index), and TSP (Thunderstorm Severity Potential).The investigation of the present and future thunderstorm conducive conditions show a significant increase of non-thunderstorm conditions. The regional averaged thunderstorm frequencies will decrease in general, but only in the Alps a potential increase in thunderstorm occurrences and intensity is found. The comparison between time slices of 10 and 30 years length show that the number of gridpoints with significant signals increases only slightly. In order to get a robust signal for severe thunderstorm, an extension to more than 75 years would be necessary.
The Firepower of Work Craving: When Self-Control Is Burning under the Rubble of Self-Regulation
(2017)
Work craving theory addresses how work-addicted individuals direct great emotion-regulatory efforts to weave their addictive web of working. They crave work for two main emotional incentives: to overcompensate low self-worth and to escape (i.e., reduce) negative affect, which is strategically achieved through neurotic perfectionism and compulsive working. Work-addicted individuals" strong persistence and self-discipline with respect to work-related activities suggest strong skills in volitional action control. However, their inability to disconnect from work implies low volitional skills. How can work-addicted individuals have poor and strong volitional skills at the same time? To answer this paradox, we elaborated on the relevance of two different volitional modes in work craving: self-regulation (self-maintenance) and self-control (goal maintenance). Four hypotheses were derived from Wojdylo- work craving theory and Kuhl- self-regulation theory: (H1) Work craving is associated with a combination of low self-regulation and high self-control. (H2) Work craving is associated with symptoms of psychological distress. (H3) Low self-regulation is associated with psychological distress symptoms. (H4) Work craving mediates the relationships between self-regulation deficits and psychological distress symptoms at high levels of self-control. Additionally, we aimed at supporting the discriminant validity of work craving with respect to work engagement by showing their different volitional underpinnings. Results of the two studies confirmed our hypotheses: whereas work craving was predicted by high self-control and low self-regulation and associated with higher psychological distress, work engagement was predicted by high self-regulation and high self-control and associated with lower symptoms of psychological distress. Furthermore, work styles mediated the relationship between volitional skills and symptoms of psychological distress. Based on these new insights, several suggestions for prevention and therapeutic interventions for work-addicted individuals are proposed.
Phase-amplitude cross-frequency coupling is a mechanism thought to facilitate communication between neuronal ensembles. The mechanism could underlie the implementation of complex cognitive processes, like executive functions, in the brain. This thesis contributes to answering the question, whether phase-amplitude cross-frequency coupling - assessed via electroencephalography (EEG) - is a mechanism by which executive functioning is implemented in the brain and whether an assumed performance effect of stress on executive functioning is reflected in phase-amplitude coupling strength. A huge body of studies shows that stress can influence executive functioning, in essence having detrimental effects. In two independent studies, each being comprised of two core executive function tasks (flexibility and behavioural inhibition as well as cognitive inhibition and working memory), beta-gamma phase-amplitude coupling was robustly detected in the left and right prefrontal hemispheres. No systematic pattern of coupling strength modulation by either task demands or acute stress was detected. Beta-gamma coupling might also be present in more basic attention processes. This is the first investigation of the relationship between stress, executive functions and phase-amplitude coupling. Therefore, many aspects have not been explored yet. For example, studying phase precision instead of coupling strength as an indicator for phase-amplitude coupling modulations. Furthermore, data was analysed in source space (independent component analysis); comparability to sensor space has still to be determined. These as well as other aspects should be investigated, due to the promising finding of very robust and strong beta-gamma coupling for all executive functions. Additionally, this thesis tested the performance of two widely used phase-amplitude coupling measures (mean vector length and modulation index). Both measures are specific and sensitive to coupling strength and coupling width. The simulation study also drew attention to several confounding factors, which influence phase-amplitude coupling measures (e. g. data length, multimodality).
Besides well-known positive aspects of conservation tillage combined with mulching, a drawback may be the survival of phytopathogenic fungi like Fusarium species on plant residues. This may endanger the health of the following crop by increasing the infection risk for specific plant diseases. In infected plant organs, these pathogens are able to produce mycotoxins like deoxynivalenol (DON). Mycotoxins like DON persist during storage, are heat resistant and of major concern for human and animal health after consumption of contaminated food and feed, respectively. Among fungivorous soil organisms, there are representatives of the soil fauna which are obviously antagonistic to a Fusarium infection and the contamination with mycotoxins. Earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris), collembolans (Folsomia candida) and nematodes (Aphelenchoides saprophilus) provide a wide range of ecosystem services including the stimulation of decomposition processes which may result in the regulation of plant pathogens and the degradation of environmental contaminants. Several investigations under laboratory conditions and in the field were conducted to test the following hypotheses: (1) Fusarium-infected and DON-contaminated wheat straw provides a more attractive food substrate than non-infected control straw (2) the introduced soil fauna reduce the biomass of F. culmorum and the content of DON in infected wheat straw under laboratory and field conditions (3) the species interaction of the introduced soil fauna enhances the degradation of Fusarium biomass and DON concentration in wheat straw; (4) the degradation efficiency of soil fauna is affected by soil texture. The results of the present thesis pointed out that the degradation performance of the introduced soil fauna must be considered as an important contribution to the biological control of plant diseases and environmental pollutants. As in particular L. terrestris revealed to be the driver of the degradation process, earthworms contribute to a sustainable control of fungal pathogens like Fusarium and its mycotoxins in wheat straw, thus reducing the risk of plant diseases and environmental pollution as ecosystem services.
Shape optimization is of interest in many fields of application. In particular, shape optimization problems arise frequently in technological processes which are modelled by partial differential equations (PDEs). In a lot of practical circumstances, the shape under investigation is parametrized by a finite number of parameters, which, on the one hand, allows the application of standard optimization approaches, but, on the other hand, unnecessarily limits the space of reachable shapes. Shape calculus presents a way to circumvent this dilemma. However, so far shape optimization based on shape calculus is mainly performed using gradient descent methods. One reason for this is the lack of symmetry of second order shape derivatives or shape Hessians. A major difference between shape optimization and the standard PDE constrained optimization framework is the lack of a linear space structure on shape spaces. If one cannot use a linear space structure, then the next best structure is a Riemannian manifold structure, in which one works with Riemannian shape Hessians. They possess the often sought property of symmetry, characterize well-posedness of optimization problems and define sufficient optimality conditions. In general, shape Hessians are used to accelerate gradient-based shape optimization methods. This thesis deals with shape optimization problems constrained by PDEs and embeds these problems in the framework of optimization on Riemannian manifolds to provide efficient techniques for PDE constrained shape optimization problems on shape spaces. A Lagrange-Newton and a quasi-Newton technique in shape spaces for PDE constrained shape optimization problems are formulated. These techniques are based on the Hadamard-form of shape derivatives, i.e., on the form of integrals over the surface of the shape under investigation. It is often a very tedious, not to say painful, process to derive such surface expressions. Along the way, volume formulations in the form of integrals over the entire domain appear as an intermediate step. This thesis couples volume integral formulations of shape derivatives with optimization strategies on shape spaces in order to establish efficient shape algorithms reducing analytical effort and programming work. In this context, a novel shape space is proposed.