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High-resolution projections of the future climate are required to assess climate change realistically at a regional scale. This is in particular important for climate change impact studies since global projections are much too coarse to represent local conditions adequately. A major concern is thereby the change of extreme values in a warming climate due to their severe impact on the natural environment, socio-economical systems and the human health. Regional climate models (RCMs) are, however, able to reproduce much of those local features. Current horizontal resolutions are about 18-25km, which is still too coarse to directly resolve small-scale processes such as deep-convection. For this reason, projections of a possible future climate were simulated in this study with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at horizontal resolutions of 4.5km and 1.3km for the region of Saarland-Lorraine-Luxemburg and Rhineland-Palatinate for the first time. At a horizontal scale of about 1km deep-convection is treated explicitly, which is expected to improve particularly the simulation of convective summer precipitation and a better resolved orography is expected to improve near surface fields such as 2m temperature. These simulations were performed as 10-year long time-slice experiments for the present climate (1991"2000), the near future (2041"2050) and the end of the century (2091"2100). The climate change signals of the annual and seasonal means and the change of extremes are analysed with respect to precipitation and 2m temperature and a possible added value due to the increased resolution is investigated. To assess changes in extremes, extreme indices have been applied and 10- and 20-year return levels were estimated by "peak-over-threshold" models. Since it is generally known that model output of RCMs should not directly be used for climate change impact studies, the precipitation and temperature fields were bias-corrected with several quantile-matching methods. Among them is a new developed parametric method which includes an extension for extreme values and is hence expected to improve the correction. In addition, the impact of the bias-correction on the climate change signals and on the extreme value statistics was investigated. The results reveal a significant warming of the annual mean by about +1.7 -°C until 2041"2050 and +3.7 -°C until 2091"2100, but considerably stronger signals of up to +5 -°C in summer in the Rhine Valley. Furthermore, the daily variability increases by about +0.8 -°C in summer but decreases by about -0.8 -°C in winter. Consequently, hot extremes increase moderately until the mid of the century but strongly thereafter, in particular in the Rhine Valley. Cold extremes warm continuously in the complete domain in the next 100 years but strongest in mountainous areas. The change signals with regard to annual precipitation are of the order -±10% but not significant. Significant, however, are a predicted increase of +32% of the seasonal precipitation in autumn until 2041"2050 and a decrease of -28% in summer until 2091-2100. No significant changes were found for days with intensities > 20 mm/day, but the results indicate that extremes with return periods ≤2 years increase as well as the frequency and duration of dry periods. The bias-corrections amplified positive signals but dampened negative signals and considerably reduced the power of detection. Moreover, absolute values and frequencies of extremes were altered by the correction but change signals remained approximately constant. The new method outperformed other parametric methods, in particular with regard to extreme value correction and related extreme indices and return levels. Although the bias correction removed systematic errors, it should be treated as an additional layer of uncertainty in climate change studies. Finally, the increased resolution of 1.3km improved predominantly the representation of temperature fields and extremes in terms of spatial heterogeneity. The benefits for summer precipitation were not as clear due to a severe dry-bias in summer, but it could be shown that in principle the onset and intensity of convection improves. This work demonstrates that climate change will have severe impacts in this investigation area and that in particular extremes may change considerably. An increased resolution provides thereby an added value to the results. These findings encourage further investigations, for other variables as for example near-surface wind, which will be more feasible with growing computing resources. These analyses should, however, be repeated with longer time series, different RCMs and anthropogenic scenarios to determine the robustness and uncertainty of these results more extensively.
Using a dendrochronological approach, we determined the resistance, recovery and resilience of the radial stem increment towards episodes of growth decline, and the accompanying variation of 13C discrimination against atmospheric CO2 (Δ13C) in tree rings of two palaeotropical pine species. These species co-occur in the mountain ranges of south–central Vietnam (1500–1600 m a.s.l.), but differ largely in their areas of distribution (Pinus kesiya from northeast India to the Philippines; P. dalatensis only in south and central Vietnam and in some isolated populations in Laos). For P. dalatensis, a robust growth chronology covering the past 290 years could be set up for the first time in the study region. For P. kesiya, the 140-year chronology constructed was the longest that could be established to date in that region for this species. In the first 40 years of the trees’ lives, the stem diameter increment was significantly larger in P. kesiya, but levelled off and even decreased after 100 years, whereas P. dalatensis exhibited a continuous growth up to an age of almost 300 years. Tree-ring growth of P. kesiya was negatively related to temperature in the wet months and season of the current year and in October (humid transition period) of the preceding year and to precipitation in August (monsoon season), but positively to precipitation in December (dry season) of the current year. The P. dalatensis chronologies exhibited no significant correlation with temperature or precipitation. Negative correlations between BAI and Δ13C indicate a lack of growth impairment by drought in both species. Regression analyses revealed a lower resilience of P. dalatensis upon episodes of growth decline compared to P. kesiya, but, contrary to our hypothesis, mean values of the three sensitivity parameters did not differ significantly between these species. Nevertheless, the vigorous growth of P. kesiya, which does not fall behind that of P. dalatensis even at the margin of its distribution area under below-optimum edaphic conditions, is indicative of a relatively high plasticity of this species towards environmental factors compared to P. dalatensis, which, in tendency, is less resilient upon environmental stress even in the “core” region of its occurrence.
Climate fluctuations and the pyroclastic depositions from volcanic activity both influence ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial and marine environments globally. These controlling factors are crucial for the evolution and fate of the pristine but fragile fjord ecosystem in the Magellanic moorlands (~53°S) of southernmost Patagonia, which is considered a critical hotspot for organic carbon burial and marine bioproductivity. At this active continental margin in the core zone of the southern westerly wind belt (SWW), frequent Plinian eruptions and the extremely variable, hyper-humid climate should have efficiently shaped ecosystem functioning and land-to-fjord mass transfer throughout the Late Holocene. However, a better understanding of the complex process network defining the biogeochemical cycling at this land-to-fjord continuum principally requires a detailed knowledge of substrate weathering and pedogenesis in the context of the extreme climate. Yet, research on soils, the ubiquitous presence of tephra and the associated chemical weathering, secondary mineral (trans)formation and organic matter (OM) turnover processes is rare in this remote region. This complicates an accurate reconstruction of the ecosystem´s potentially sensitive response to past environmental impacts, including the dynamics of Late Holocene land-to-fjord fluxes as a function of volcanic activity and strong hydroclimate variability.
Against this background, this PhD thesis aims to disentangle the controlling factors that modulate the terrigenous element mobilization and export mechanisms in the hyper-humid Patagonian Andes and assesses their significance for fjord primary productivity over the past 4.5 kyrs BP. For the first time, distinct biogeochemical characteristics of the regional weathering system serve as major criterion in paleoenvironmental reconstruction in the area. This approach includes broad-scale mineralogical and geochemical analyses of basement lithologies, four soil profiles, volcanic ash deposits, the non-karst stalagmite MA1 and two lacustrine sediment cores. In order to pay special attention to the possibly important temporal variations of pedosphere-atmosphere interaction and ecological consequences initiated by volcanic eruptions, the novel data were evaluated together with previously published reconstructions of paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental conditions.
The devastative high-tephra loading of a single eruption from Mt. Burney volcano (MB2 at 4.216 kyrs BP) sustainably transformed this vulnerable fjord ecosystem, while acidic peaty Andosols developed from ~2.5 kyrs BP onwards after the recovery from millennium-scale acidification. The special setting is dominated by most variable redox-pH conditions, profound volcanic ash weathering and intense OM turnover processes, which are closely linked and ultimately regulated by SWW-induced water-level fluctuations. Constant nutrient supply though sea spray deposition represents a further important control on peat accumulation and OM turnover dynamics. These extreme environmental conditions constrain the biogeochemical framework for an extended land-to-fjord export of leachates comprising various organic and inorganic colloids (i.e., Al-humus complexes and Fe-(hydr)oxides). Such tephra- and/or Andosol-sourced flux contains high proportions of terrigenous organic carbon (OCterr) and mobilized essential (micro)nutrients, e.g., bio-available Fe, that are beneficial for fjord bioproductivity. It can be assumed that this supply of bio-available Fe produced by specific Fe-(hydr)oxide (trans)formation processes from tephra components may outlast more than 6 kyrs and surpasses the contribution from basement rock weathering and glacial meltwaters. However, the land-to-fjord exports of OCterr and bio-available Fe occur mostly asynchronous and are determined by the frequency and duration of redox cycles in soils or are initiated by SWW-induced extreme weather events.
The verification of (crypto)tephra layers embedded stalagmite MA1 enabled the accurate dating of three smaller Late Holocene eruptions from Mt. Burney (MB3 at 2.291 kyrs BP and MB4 at 0.853 kyrs BP) and Aguilera (A1 at 2.978 kyrs BP) volcanoes. Irrespective of the improvement of the regional tephrochronology, the obtained precise 230Th/U-ages allowed constraints on the ecological consequences caused by these Plinian eruptions. The deposition of these thin tephra layers should have entailed a very beneficial short-term stimulation of fjord bioproductivity with bio-available Fe and other (micro)nutrients, which affected the entire area between 52°S and 53°S 30´, respectively. For such beneficial effects, the thickness of tephra deposited to this highly vulnerable peatland ecosystem should be below a threshold of 1 cm.
The Late Holocene element mobilization and land-to-fjord transport was mainly controlled by (i) volcanic activity and tephra thickness, (ii) SWW-induced and southern hemispheric climate variability and (iii) the current state of the ecosystem. The influence of cascading climate and environmental impacts on OCterr and Fe-(hydr)oxide fluxes to can be categorized by four individual, in part overlapping scenarios. These different scenarios take into account the previously specified fundamental biogeochemical mechanisms and define frequently recurring patterns of ecosystem feedbacks governing the land-to-fjord mass transfer in the hyper-humid Patagonian Andes on the centennial-scale. This PhD thesis provides first evidence for a primarily tephra-sourced, continuous and long-lasting (micro)nutrient fertilization for phytoplankton growth in South Patagonian fjords, which is ultimately modulated by variations in SWW-intensity. It highlights the climate sensitivity of such critical land-to-fjord element transport and particularly emphasizes the important but so far underappreciated significance of volcanic ash inputs for biogeochemical cycles at active continental margins.
It is generally assumed that the temperature increase associated with global climate change will lead to increased thunderstorm intensity and associated heavy precipitation events. In the present study it is investigated whether the frequency of thunderstorm occurrences will in- or decrease and how the spatial distribution will change for the A1B scenario. The region of interest is Central Europe with a special focus on the Saar-Lor-Lux region (Saarland, Lorraine, Luxembourg) and Rhineland-Palatinate.Daily model data of the COSMO-CLM with a horizontal resolution of 4.5 km is used. The simulations were carried out for two different time slices: 1971"2000 (C20), and 2071"2100 (A1B). Thunderstorm indices are applied to detect thunderstorm-prone conditions and differences in their frequency of occurrence in the two thirty years timespans. The indices used are CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), SLI (Surface Lifted Index), and TSP (Thunderstorm Severity Potential).The investigation of the present and future thunderstorm conducive conditions show a significant increase of non-thunderstorm conditions. The regional averaged thunderstorm frequencies will decrease in general, but only in the Alps a potential increase in thunderstorm occurrences and intensity is found. The comparison between time slices of 10 and 30 years length show that the number of gridpoints with significant signals increases only slightly. In order to get a robust signal for severe thunderstorm, an extension to more than 75 years would be necessary.
Abstracts book of oral presentations and poster contributions for the mid-term conference of the Interreg IVB NWE project ForeStClim. The international conference took place in Nancy (France) from 20. to 22. September 2010. The topics of the conference sessions were as follows:rnSession 1: Projecting forest sites and stand shiftsrnSession 2: Climate change and water: modelling across spatial and temporal scalesrnSession 3: Addressing climate change in practical silvicultural decision support