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The reduction of information contained in model time series through the use of aggregating statistical performance measures is very high compared to the amount of information that one would like to draw from it for model identification and calibration purposes. It is readily known that this loss imposes important limitations on model identification and -diagnostics and thus constitutes an element of the overall model uncertainty as essentially different model realizations with almost identical performance measures (e.g. r-² or RMSE) can be generated. In three consecutive studies the present work proposes an alternative approach towards hydrological model evaluation based on the application of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM; Kohonen, 2001). The Self-Organizing Map is a type of artificial neural network and unsupervised learning algorithm that is used for clustering, visualization and abstraction of multidimensional data. It maps vectorial input data items with similar patterns onto contiguous locations of a discrete low-dimensional grid of neurons. The iterative training of the SOM causes the neurons to form a discrete, data-compressed representation of the high-dimensional input data. Using appropriate visualization techniques, information on distributions, patterns and relationships in complex data sets can be extracted. Irrespective of their potential, SOM applications have earned very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to other artificial neural network techniques. Therefore, the aim of the present work is to demonstrate that the application of Self-Organizing Maps has very high potential to address fundamental issues of model evaluation: It is shown that the clustering and classification of model time series by means of SOM can provide useful insights into model behaviour. In combination with the diagnostic properties of Signature Indices (Gupta et al., 2008; Yilmaz et al., 2008) SOM provides a novel tool for interpreting the model parameters in the hydrological context and identifying parameter sets that simultaneously meet multiple objectives, even if the corresponding model realizations belong to different models. Moreover, the presented studies and reviews also encourage further studies on the application of SOM in hydrological modelling.
Physically-based distributed rainfall-runoff models as the standard analysis tools for hydro-logical processes have been used to simulate the water system in detail, which includes spa-tial patterns and temporal dynamics of hydrological variables and processes (Davison et al., 2015; Ek and Holtslag, 2004). In general, catchment models are parameterized with spatial information on soil, vegetation and topography. However, traditional approaches for eval-uation of the hydrological model performance are usually motivated with respect to dis-charge data alone. This may thus cloud model realism and hamper understanding of the catchment behavior. It is necessary to evaluate the model performance with respect to in-ternal hydrological processes within the catchment area as well as other components of wa-ter balance rather than runoff discharge at the catchment outlet only. In particular, a consid-erable amount of dynamics in a catchment occurs in the processes related to interactions of the water, soil and vegetation. Evapotranspiration process, for instance, is one of those key interactive elements, and the parameterization of soil and vegetation in water balance mod-eling strongly influences the simulation of evapotranspiration. Specifically, to parameterize the water flow in unsaturated soil zone, the functional relationships that describe the soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity characteristics are important. To define these functional relationships, Pedo-Transfer Functions (PTFs) are common to use in hydrologi-cal modeling. Opting the appropriate PTFs for the region under investigation is a crucial task in estimating the soil hydraulic parameters, but this choice in a hydrological model is often made arbitrary and without evaluating the spatial and temporal patterns of evapotran-spiration, soil moisture, and distribution and intensity of runoff processes. This may ulti-mately lead to implausible modeling results and possibly to incorrect decisions in regional water management. Therefore, the use of reliable evaluation approaches is continually re-quired to analyze the dynamics of the current interactive hydrological processes and predict the future changes in the water cycle, which eventually contributes to sustainable environ-mental planning and decisions in water management.
Remarkable endeavors have been made in development of modelling tools that provide insights into the current and future of hydrological patterns in different scales and their im-pacts on the water resources and climate changes (Doell et al., 2014; Wood et al., 2011). Although, there is a need to consider a proper balance between parameter identifiability and the model's ability to realistically represent the response of the natural system. Neverthe-less, tackling this issue entails investigation of additional information, which usually has to be elaborately assembled, for instance, by mapping the dominant runoff generation pro-cesses in the intended area, or retrieving the spatial patterns of soil moisture and evapotran-spiration by using remote sensing methods, and evaluation at a scale commensurate with hydrological model (Koch et al., 2022; Zink et al., 2018). The present work therefore aims to give insights into the modeling approaches to simulate water balance and to improve the soil and vegetation parameterization scheme in the hydrological model subject to producing more reliable spatial and temporal patterns of evapotranspiration and runoff processes in the catchment.
An important contribution to the overall body of work is a book chapter included among publications. The book chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the topic and valua-ble insights into the understanding the water balance and its estimation methods.
Moreover, the first paper aimed to evaluate the hydrological model behavior with re-spect to contribution of various sources of information. To do so, a multi-criteria evaluation metric including soft and hard data was used to define constraints on outputs of the 1-D hydrological model WaSiM-ETH. Applying this evaluation metric, we could identify the optimal soil and vegetation parameter sets that resulted in a “behavioral” forest stand water balance model. It was found out that even if simulations of transpiration and soil water con-tent are consistent with measured data, but still the dominant runoff generation processes or total water balance might be wrongly calculated. Therefore, only using an evaluation scheme which looks over different sources of data and embraces an understanding of the local controls of water loss through soil and plant, allowed us to exclude the unrealistic modeling outputs. The results suggested that we may need to question the generally accept-ed soil parameterization procedures that apply default parameter sets.
The second paper attempts to tackle the pointed model evaluation hindrance by getting down to the small-scale catchment (in Bavaria). Here, a methodology was introduced to analyze the sensitivity of the catchment water balance model to the choice of the Pedo-Transfer Functions (PTF). By varying the underlying PTFs in a calibrated and validated model, we could determine the resulting effects on the spatial distribution of soil hydraulic properties, total water balance in catchment outlet, and the spatial and temporal variation of the runoff components. Results revealed that the water distribution in the hydrologic system significantly differs amongst various PTFs. Moreover, the simulations of water balance components showed high sensitivity to the spatial distribution of soil hydraulic properties. Therefore, it was suggested that opting the PTFs in hydrological modeling should be care-fully tested by looking over the spatio-temporal distribution of simulated evapotranspira-tion and runoff generation processes, whether they are reasonably represented.
To fulfill the previous studies’ suggestions, the third paper then aims to focus on evalu-ating the hydrological model through improving the spatial representation of dominant run-off processes. It was implemented in a mesoscale catchment in southwestern Germany us-ing the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH. Dealing with the issues of inadequate spatial ob-servations for rigorous spatial model evaluation, we made use of a reference soil hydrologic map available for the study area to discern the expected dominant runoff processes across a wide range of hydrological conditions. The model was parameterized by applying 11 PTFs and run by multiple synthetic rainfall events. To compare the simulated spatial patterns to the patterns derived by digital soil map, a multiple-component spatial performance metric (SPAEF) was applied. The simulated DRPs showed a large variability with regard to land use, topography, applied rainfall rates, and the different PTFs, which highly influence the rapid runoff generation under wet conditions.
The three published manuscripts proceeded towards the model evaluation viewpoints that ultimately attain the behavioral model outputs. It was performed through obtaining information about internal hydrological processes that lead to certain model behaviors, and also about the function and sensitivity of some of the soil and vegetation parameters that may primarily influence those internal processes in a catchment. Accordingly, using this understanding on model reactions, and by setting multiple evaluation criteria, it was possi-ble to identify which parameterization could lead to behavioral model realization. This work, in fact, will contribute to solving some of the issues (e.g., spatial variability and modeling methods) identified as the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology in the 21st century (Blöschl et al., 2019). The results obtained in the present work encourage the further inves-tigations toward a comprehensive model calibration procedure considering multiple data sources simultaneously. This will enable developing the new perspectives to the current parameter estimation methods, which in essence, focus on reproducing the plausible dy-namics (spatio-temporal) of the other hydrological processes within the watershed.
This study aims to estimate the cotton yield at the field and regional level via the APSIM/OZCOT crop model, using an optimization-based recalibration approach based on the state variable of the cotton canopy - the leaf area index (LAI), derived from atmospherically corrected Landsat-8 OLI remote sensing images in 2014. First, a local sensitivity and global analysis approach was employed to test the sensitivity of cultivar, soil and agronomic parameters to the dynamics of the LAI. After sensitivity analyses, a series of sensitive parameters were obtained. Then, the APSIM/OZCOT crop model was calibrated by observations over a two-year span (2006-2007) at the Aksu station, combined with these sensitive cultivar parameters and the current understanding of cotton cultivar parameters. Third, the relationship between the observed in-situ LAI and synchronous perpendicular vegetation indices derived from six Landsat-8 OLI images covering the entire growth stage was modelled to generate LAI maps in time and space. Finally, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and general-purpose optimization approach (based on Nelder-Mead algorithm) were used to recalibrate four sensitive agronomic parameters (row spacing, sowing density per row, irrigation amount and total fertilization) according to the minimization of the root-mean-square deviation (RMSE) between the simulated LAI from the APSIM/OZCOT model and retrieved LAI from Landsat-8 OLI remote sensing images. After the recalibration, the best simulated results compared with observed cotton yield were obtained. The results showed that: (1) FRUDD, FLAI and DDISQ were the major cultivar parameters suitable for calibrating the cotton cultivar. (2) After the calibration, the simulated LAI performed well with an RMSE and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.45 and 0.33, respectively, in 2006 and 0.46 and 0.41, respectively, in 2007. The coefficient of determination between the observed and simulated LAI was 0.83 and 0.97, respectively, in 2006 and 2007. The Pearson- correlation coefficient was 0.913 and 0.988 in 2006 and 2007, respectively, with a significant positive correlation between the simulated and observed LAI. The difference between the observed and simulated yield was 776.72 kg/ha and 259.98 kg/ha in 2006 and 2007, respectively. (3) Cotton cultivation in 2014 was obtained using three Landsat-8 OLI images - DOY136 (May), DOY 168 (June) and DOY 200 (July) - based on the phenological differences in cotton and other vegetation types. (4) The yield estimation after the assimilation closely approximated the field-observed values, and the coefficient of determination was as high as 0.82, after recalibration of the APSIM/OZCOT model for ten cotton fields. The difference between the observed and assimilated yields for the ten fields ranged from 18.2 to 939.7 kg/ha. The RMSE and MAE between the assimilated and observed yield was 417.5 and 303.1 kg/ha, respectively. These findings provide scientific evidence for the feasibility of coupled remote sensing and APSIM/OZCOT model at the field level. (5) Upscaling from field level to regional level, the assimilation algorithm and scheme are both especially important. Although the PSO method is very efficient, the computational efficiency is also the shortcoming of the assimilation strategy on a regional scale. Comparisons between the PSO and general-purpose optimization method (based on the Nelder-Mead algorithm) were implemented from the RSME, LAI curve and computational time. The general-purpose optimization method (based on the Nelder-Mead algorithm) was used for the regional assimilation between remote sensing and the APSIM/OZCOT model. Meanwhile, the basic unit for regional assimilation was also determined as cotton field rather than pixel. Moreover, the crop growth simulation was also divided into two phases (vegetative growth and reproductive growth) for regional assimilation. (6) The regional assimilation at the vegetative growth stage between the remote sensing derived and APSIM/OZCOT model-simulated LAI was implemented by adjusting two parameters: row spacing and sowing density per row. The results showed that the sowing density of cotton was higher in the southern part than in the northern part of the study area. The spatial pattern of cotton density was also consistent with the reclamation from 2001 to 2013. Cotton fields after early reclamation were mainly located in the southern part while the recent reclamation was located in the northern part. Poor soil quality, lack of irrigation facilities and woodland belts of cotton fields in the northern part caused the low density of cotton. Regarding the row spacing, the northern part was larger than the southern part due to the variation of two agronomic modes from military and private companies. (7) The irrigation and fertilization amount were both used as key parameters to be adjusted for regional assimilation during the reproductive growth period. The result showed that the irrigation per time ranged from 58.14 to 89.99 mm in the study area. The spatial distribution of the irrigation amount is higher in the northern part while lower in southern study area. The application of urea fertilization ranged from 500.35 to 1598.59 kg/ha in the study area. The spatial distribution of fertilization was lower in the northern part and higher in the southern part. More fertilization applied in the southern study area aims to increase the boll weight and number for pursuing higher yields of cotton. The frequency of the RSME during the second assimilation was mainly located in the range of 0.4-0.6 m2/m2. The estimated cotton yield ranged from 1489 to 8895 kg/ha. The spatial distribution of the estimated yield is also higher in the southern part than the northern study area.
The state-of-the-art finite element software Plaxis 3D was applied in a real-world study site of the Turaida castle mound to investigate the slope stability of the mound and understand the mechanisms triggering landslides there. During the simulation, the stability of the castle mound was analysed and the most landslide-susceptible zones of hillslopes were determined. The 3D finite-element stability analysis has significant advantages over conventional 2D limit-equilibrium methods where locations of 2D stability sections are arbitrarily selected. Two modelling scenarios of the slope stability were elaborated considering deep-seated slides in bedrock and shallow landslides in the colluvial material of slopes. The model shows that shallow slides in colluvium are more probable. In the finite-element model, slope failure occurs along the weakest zone in colluvium, similarly to the situation observed in previous landslides in the study site. The physical basis of the model allows results to be obtained very close to natural conditions and delivers valuable insight in triggering mechanisms of landslides.
Climate change is expected to cause mountain species to shift their ranges to higher elevations. Due to the decreasing amounts of habitats with increasing elevation, such shifts are likely to increase their extinction risk. Heterogeneous mountain topography, however, may reduce this risk by providing microclimatic conditions that can buffer macroclimatic warming or provide nearby refugia. As aspect strongly influences the local microclimate, we here assess whether shifts from warm south-exposed aspects to cool north-exposed aspects in response to climate change can compensate for an upward shift into cooler elevations.
This cumulative thesis encompass three studies focusing on the Weddell Sea region in the Antarctic. The first study produces and evaluates a high quality data set of wind measurements for this region. The second study produces and evaluates a 15 year regional climate simulation for the Weddell Sea region. And the third study produces and evaluates a climatology of low level jets (LLJs) from the simulation data set. The evaluations were done in the attached three publications and the produced data sets are published online.
In 2015/2016, the RV Polarstern undertook an Antarctic expedition in the Weddell Sea. We operated a Doppler wind lidar on board during that time running different scan patterns. The resulting data was evaluated, corrected, processed and we derived horizontal wind speed and directions for vertical profiles with up to 2 km height. The measurements cover 38 days with a temporal resolution of 10-15 minutes. A comparisons with other radio sounding data showed only minor differences.
The resulting data set was used alongside other measurements to evaluate temperature and wind of simulation data. The simulation data was produced with the regional climate model CCLM for the period of 2002 to 2016 for the Weddell Sea region. Only smaller biases were found except for a strong warm bias during winter near the surface of the Antarctic Plateau. Thus we adapted the model setup and were able to remove the bias in a second simulation.
This new simulation data was then used to derive a climatology of low level jets (LLJs). Statistics of occurrence frequency, height and wind speed of LLJs for the Weddell Sea region are presented along other parameters. Another evaluation with measurements was also performed in the last study.
In past years, desertification and land degradation have been acknowledged as a major threat to human welfare world-wide, and their environmental and societal implications have sparked the formulation of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). Any measure taken against desertification, or the design of dedicated early warning systems, must take into account both the spatial and temporal dimensions of process driving factors. Equally important, past and present reactions of ecosystems to physical and socio-economical disturbances or management interventions need to be understood. In this context, remote sensing and geoinformation processing support the required assessment, monitoring and modelling approaches, and hence provide an essential contribution to the scientific component of the struggle against desertification. Supported by DG Research of the European Commission, the Remote Sensing Department of the University of Trier convened RGLDD to promote scientific exchange between specialists working on the interface of remote sensing, geoinformation processing, desertification/land degradation research and its socio-economic implications. Although targeted at the scientific community, contributions with application perspectives were of crucial importance and both an overview of the current state of the art as well as operational opportunities were presented. Hosted at the Robert-Schuman Haus in Trier, the conference gained widespread attention and attracted an international audience from all parts of the world, which underlines the global dimension of land degradation and desertification processes. Based on a rigorous review of submitted abstracts, more than 100 contributions were accepted for oral and poster presentation, which are found in these proceedings edition in full paper form. Please note: This document is optimised for screen resolution, to receive a high-resolution version please contact the editors.
Considering actual climatic and land use changes the problem of available water resources or the estimation of potential flood risks gain eco-political and economical relevance. Adequate assessments, thus, require precise process-based hydrological knowledge. Spatially distributed hydrological modelling enables a both abstractive and realistic description of hydrological processes, and therefore contributes to the understanding of the hydrological system- responses. Referring to the example of the mesoscale Ruwer basin (a tributary to the Mosel river), a modified version of the distributive modelling system PRMS/MMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System/Modular Modeling System) is applied to calculate spatially and temporally explicit water budgets. To achieve modelling results as precise as possible, integration of detailed land use information (spatial distribution of the existing land use classes, crop- and site-specific growth patterns) is necessary. This information is derived here by analysis of multitemporal, geometrically and radiometrically pre-processed Landsat TM-data. This enables separation of different land use classes and differentiated quantification of the leaf area index (LAI). The LAI is estimated by a spectral unmixing approach using statistically optimized endmember sets, referring to the example of winter grain and grassland plots. As a result, numerical inputs (coefficients for calculating evapotranspiration, interception storages) and extracted non-numerical (classified) information can be provided for hydrological modelling. The version of PRMS applied in this study allows important land use terms to be parameterized in high temporal resolution. Using model input derived from the available satellite data, simulation results are obtained that prove to be realistic compared to gauge data and with respect to their spatial differentiation. Results differ significantly from those obtained by using parameters from literature or by experience without distinguishing specific and site-dependent growth patterns. It can be concluded that the quality of modelling results notably improves by integration and quantitative analysis of remote sensing data; thus, these methods are a significant contribution to physically-based hydrological modelling.
The parameterization of ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere interaction processes is a challenge for regional climate models (RCMs) of the Arctic, particularly for wintertime conditions, when small fractions of thin ice or open water cause strong modifications of the boundary layer. Thus, the treatment of sea ice and sub-grid flux parameterizations in RCMs is of crucial importance. However, verification data sets over sea ice for wintertime conditions are rare. In the present paper, data of the ship-based experiment Transarktika 2019 during the end of the Arctic winter for thick one-year ice conditions are presented. The data are used for the verification of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). In addition, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are used for the comparison of ice surface temperature (IST) simulations of the CCLM sea ice model. CCLM is used in a forecast mode (nested in ERA5) for the Norwegian and Barents Seas with 5 km resolution and is run with different configurations of the sea ice model and sub-grid flux parameterizations. The use of a new set of parameterizations yields improved results for the comparisons with in-situ data. Comparisons with MODIS IST allow for a verification over large areas and show also a good performance of CCLM. The comparison with twice-daily radiosonde ascents during Transarktika 2019, hourly microwave water vapor measurements of first 5 km in the atmosphere and hourly temperature profiler data show a very good representation of the temperature, humidity and wind structure of the whole troposphere for CCLM.
Die in einem Einzugsgebiet herrschende räumliche Inhomogenität wird im Wasserhaushaltsmodell LARSIM (Large Area Runoff Simulation Modell) in den einzelnen Modellkomponenten unterschiedlich stark berücksichtigt. Insbesondere die räumliche Verteilung der Abflussprozesse wurde bisher nicht berücksichtigt, weil keine flächenhaft verfügbare Information über eben diese Verteilung vorlag. Für das Einzugsgebiet der Nahe liegt nun seit dem Jahr 2007 eine Bodenhydrologische Karte vor, die flächenhaft den bei ausreichenden Niederschlägen zu erwartenden Abflussprozess ausweist. In der vorliegenden Dissertation wird die Nutzung dieser Prozessinformation bei der Parametrisierung des Bodenmoduls von LARSIM beschrieben: Für drei Prozessgruppen " gesättigter Oberflächenabfluss, Abfluss im Boden, Tiefenversickerung " werden mittels zweier neuer Parameter P_Bilanz und P_Dämpfung inhomogene Parametersätze aus empirisch ermittelten Kennfeldern gewählt, um die Prozessinformation bei der Abflussbildung im Modell zu berücksichtigen. Für die Abbildung der Prozessintensitäten in den Gebietsspeichern werden zwei unterschiedliche Ansätze vorgestellt, die sich in ihrer Komplexität unterscheiden. In der ersten Variante werden fünf Oberflächenabflussspeicher für unterschiedlich schnell reagierende Prozessgruppen eingeführt, in der zweiten Variante wird der erste Ansatz mit dem ursprünglichen Schwellenwert zur Aufteilung in schnelle und langsame Oberflächenabflusskomponenten kombiniert. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Parametrisierung mit den beiden neuen Parametern P_Bilanz und P_Dämpfung einfacher, effektiver und effizienter ist, da beide Parameter minimale Interaktionen aufweisen und in ihrer Wirkungsweise leicht verständlich sind, was auf die ursprünglichen Bodenparameter nicht zutrifft. Es wird ein Arbeitsfluss vorgestellt, in dem die neuen Parameter in Kombination mit Signature Measures und unterschiedlichen Darstellungen der Abflussdauerlinie gemeinsam genutzt werden können, um in wenigen Arbeitsschritten eine Anpassung des Modells in neuen Einzugsgebieten vorzunehmen. Die Methode wurde durch Anwendung in drei Gebieten validiert. In den drei Gebieten konnte in wenigen Kalibrierungsschritten die Simulationsgüte der ursprünglichen Version erreicht und " je nach Zielsetzung " übertroffen werden. Hinsichtlich der Gütemaße zeigte sich bei der Variante, in der die Gebietsspeicher nicht modifiziert wurden, aber kein eindeutiges Bild, ob die ursprüngliche Parametrisierung oder die neue grundsätzlich überlegen ist. Neben der Auswertung der Validierungszeiträume wurden dabei auch die simulierten Ganglinien in geschachtelten Gebieten betrachtet. Die Version, in der die Gebietsspeicher modifiziert wurden, zeigt hingegen vor allem im Validierungszeitraum tendenziell bessere Simulationsergebnisse. Hinsichtlich der Abbildung der Abflussprozesse ist das neue Verfahren dem alten deutlich überlegen: Es resultiert in plausiblen Anteilen von Abflusskomponenten, deren Verteilung und Abhängigkeit von Speicherkapazitäten, Landnutzungen und Eingangsdaten systematisch ausgewertet wurden. Es zeigte sich, dass vor allem die Speicherkapazität des Bodens einen signifikanten Einfluss hat, der aber im hydrologischen Sinn richtig und hinsichtlich der Modellannahmen plausibel ist. Es wird deutlich gemacht, dass die Einschränkungen, die sich ergeben haben, aufgrund der Modellannahmen zustande kommen, und dass ohne die Änderung dieser Annahmen keine bessere Abbildung möglich ist. Für die Zukunft werden Möglichkeiten aufgezeigt, wie die Annahmen modifiziert werden können, um eine bessere Abbildung zu erzielen, indem der bereits bestehende Infiltrationsansatz in die Methode integriert wird.