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Tropospheric ozone (O3) is known to have various detrimental effects on plants, such as visible leaf injury, reduced growth and premature senescence. Flux models offer the determination of the harmful ozone dose entering the plant through the stomata. This dose can then be related to phytotoxic effects mentioned above to obtain dose-response relationships, which are a helpful tool for the formulation of abatement strategies of ozone precursors. rnOzone flux models are dependant on the correct estimation of stomatal conductance (gs). Based on measurements of gs, an ozone flux model for two white clover clones (Trifolium repens L. cv Regal; NC-S (ozone-sensitive) and NC-R (ozone-resistant)) differing in their sensitivity to ozone was developed with the help of artificial neural networks (ANNs). White clover is an important species of various European grassland communities. The clover plants were exposed to ambient air at three sites in the Trier region (West Germany) during five consecutive growing seasons (1997 to 2001). The response parameters visible leaf injury and biomass ratio of NC-S/NC-R clone were regularly assessed. gs-measurements of both clones functioned as output of the ANN-based gs model, while corresponding climate parameters (i.e. temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR)) and various ozone concentration indices were inputs. The development of the model was documented in detail and various model evaluation techniques (e.g. sensitivity analysis) were applied. The resulting gs model was used as a basis for ozone flux calculations, which were related to above mentioned response parameters. rnThe results showed that the ANNs were capable of revealing and learning the complex relationship between gs and key meteorological parameters and ozone concentration indices. The dose-response relationships between ozone fluxes and visible leaf injury were reasonably strong, while those between ozone fluxes and NC-S/NC-R biomass ratio were fairly weak. The results were discussed in detail with respect to the suitability of the chosen experimental methods and model type.
Climate change is expected to cause mountain species to shift their ranges to higher elevations. Due to the decreasing amounts of habitats with increasing elevation, such shifts are likely to increase their extinction risk. Heterogeneous mountain topography, however, may reduce this risk by providing microclimatic conditions that can buffer macroclimatic warming or provide nearby refugia. As aspect strongly influences the local microclimate, we here assess whether shifts from warm south-exposed aspects to cool north-exposed aspects in response to climate change can compensate for an upward shift into cooler elevations.
Global change, i.e. climate and land use changes, severely impact natural ecosystems at different scales. Poikilothermic animals as butterflies, amphibians and reptiles have proven to be useful indicators for global change impacts as their phenology, spatial distribution, individual fitness and survival strongly depend on external environmental factors. In this aspect, phenological changes in terms of advanced flight or breeding periods, immigrations of foreign species, range shifts concomitant with temperature increases and even local population declines have been observed in both species groups. However, to date much attention has been paid to global change impacts on the species or population level and analyses concerning entire ecosystems are scarce. Applying a novel statistical modelling algorithm we assessed future changes in the extent and composition of terrestrial ecoregions as classified by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). They are defined as coarse-scale conservation units containing exceptional assemblages of species and ecological dynamics. Our results demonstrate dramatic geographical changes in the extent and location of these ecoregions across all continents and even imply a repriorisation of conservation efforts to cope with future climate change impacts on biodiversity. On the local scale, climate change impacts become unequivocal. Comparing historical to contemporary butterfly assemblages on vineyard fallows of the Trier Region, a significant decline in butterfly richness, but also a severe depletion in trait diversity was observed. Comparisons of community temperature indices reveal a striking shift in community composition leading to a replacement of sedentary and monophagous habitat specialists by ubiquitous species. Similar changes have been observed in nature reserves in the Saar-Mosel-area. Monitoring data reveal strong losses of species diversity and remarkable shifts of community compositions at the expense of habitat specialists. Besides climatic variability, these findings are largely attributed to changes in habitat structures, mostly due to eutrophication and monotonisation. Management activities are unlikely to counterbalance these effects, thus severely questioning current conservation strategies. Most dramatic global change impacts are suspected on closely associated species and disruptions of biotic interactions are often hold responsible for species declines. A strong host-parasite association has developed in Myrmica ants and Maculinea butterflies, the later crucially depending on specific host ants for their larval survival. Applying environmental niche models we determined considerable niche dynamics in the observed parasite-host relation with a pronounced niche plasticity in the butterfly species adapting to previous evasive niche shifts in their host ants. Moreover, the new emergence of species continuously expanding their northernmost range borders concomitant with global warming like the Short-tailed blue (Cupido argiades) is attributed to climate change. However, species distribution models predict a severe habitat loss and shifts of potentially suitable habitats of this species towards north-eastern Europe and higher altitudes under several IPCC scenarios making the presence of this species in the Trier region a contemporary phenomenon. Species distribution models have emerged as powerful tools to predict species distributions over spatial and temporal scales. However, not only the presence of a species, but also its abundance have significant implications for species conservation. The ability to deduce spatial abundance patterns from environmental suitability might more efficiently guide field surveys or monitoring programs over large geographical areas saving time and money. Although the application of species distribution models to deduce vertebrate abundances is well recognized, our results indicate that this method is not an adequate approach to predict invertebrate abundances. Structural and ecological factors as well as climatic patterns acting at the microscale are key drivers of invertebrate occurrence and abundances limiting conclusions drawn from modeling approaches. Population declines should be interpreted with care as in butterflies and amphibians various reasons are debated. Both species groups are acknowledged to be highly susceptible to land use changes and variations in landscape structure. Moreover, climate and land use are not independently operating factors. The combined impact of both is demonstrated in our study linking climate-driven changes in amphibian phenologies to temporal advanced applications of pesticides and fertilizers. Both environmental factors already represent severe threats to amphibians when standing alone, but linking their combined impacts may result in an potentiated risk for amphibian populations. As all amphibians and numerous butterfly species are legally protected under the Federal Nature Conservation Act, intensifications of agricultural land use in large parts of Germany as well as new agrarian practices (including genetically manipulated plants accompanied by new herbicide technologies) might severely challenge regional conservation activities in the future.
Die in einem Einzugsgebiet herrschende räumliche Inhomogenität wird im Wasserhaushaltsmodell LARSIM (Large Area Runoff Simulation Modell) in den einzelnen Modellkomponenten unterschiedlich stark berücksichtigt. Insbesondere die räumliche Verteilung der Abflussprozesse wurde bisher nicht berücksichtigt, weil keine flächenhaft verfügbare Information über eben diese Verteilung vorlag. Für das Einzugsgebiet der Nahe liegt nun seit dem Jahr 2007 eine Bodenhydrologische Karte vor, die flächenhaft den bei ausreichenden Niederschlägen zu erwartenden Abflussprozess ausweist. In der vorliegenden Dissertation wird die Nutzung dieser Prozessinformation bei der Parametrisierung des Bodenmoduls von LARSIM beschrieben: Für drei Prozessgruppen " gesättigter Oberflächenabfluss, Abfluss im Boden, Tiefenversickerung " werden mittels zweier neuer Parameter P_Bilanz und P_Dämpfung inhomogene Parametersätze aus empirisch ermittelten Kennfeldern gewählt, um die Prozessinformation bei der Abflussbildung im Modell zu berücksichtigen. Für die Abbildung der Prozessintensitäten in den Gebietsspeichern werden zwei unterschiedliche Ansätze vorgestellt, die sich in ihrer Komplexität unterscheiden. In der ersten Variante werden fünf Oberflächenabflussspeicher für unterschiedlich schnell reagierende Prozessgruppen eingeführt, in der zweiten Variante wird der erste Ansatz mit dem ursprünglichen Schwellenwert zur Aufteilung in schnelle und langsame Oberflächenabflusskomponenten kombiniert. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Parametrisierung mit den beiden neuen Parametern P_Bilanz und P_Dämpfung einfacher, effektiver und effizienter ist, da beide Parameter minimale Interaktionen aufweisen und in ihrer Wirkungsweise leicht verständlich sind, was auf die ursprünglichen Bodenparameter nicht zutrifft. Es wird ein Arbeitsfluss vorgestellt, in dem die neuen Parameter in Kombination mit Signature Measures und unterschiedlichen Darstellungen der Abflussdauerlinie gemeinsam genutzt werden können, um in wenigen Arbeitsschritten eine Anpassung des Modells in neuen Einzugsgebieten vorzunehmen. Die Methode wurde durch Anwendung in drei Gebieten validiert. In den drei Gebieten konnte in wenigen Kalibrierungsschritten die Simulationsgüte der ursprünglichen Version erreicht und " je nach Zielsetzung " übertroffen werden. Hinsichtlich der Gütemaße zeigte sich bei der Variante, in der die Gebietsspeicher nicht modifiziert wurden, aber kein eindeutiges Bild, ob die ursprüngliche Parametrisierung oder die neue grundsätzlich überlegen ist. Neben der Auswertung der Validierungszeiträume wurden dabei auch die simulierten Ganglinien in geschachtelten Gebieten betrachtet. Die Version, in der die Gebietsspeicher modifiziert wurden, zeigt hingegen vor allem im Validierungszeitraum tendenziell bessere Simulationsergebnisse. Hinsichtlich der Abbildung der Abflussprozesse ist das neue Verfahren dem alten deutlich überlegen: Es resultiert in plausiblen Anteilen von Abflusskomponenten, deren Verteilung und Abhängigkeit von Speicherkapazitäten, Landnutzungen und Eingangsdaten systematisch ausgewertet wurden. Es zeigte sich, dass vor allem die Speicherkapazität des Bodens einen signifikanten Einfluss hat, der aber im hydrologischen Sinn richtig und hinsichtlich der Modellannahmen plausibel ist. Es wird deutlich gemacht, dass die Einschränkungen, die sich ergeben haben, aufgrund der Modellannahmen zustande kommen, und dass ohne die Änderung dieser Annahmen keine bessere Abbildung möglich ist. Für die Zukunft werden Möglichkeiten aufgezeigt, wie die Annahmen modifiziert werden können, um eine bessere Abbildung zu erzielen, indem der bereits bestehende Infiltrationsansatz in die Methode integriert wird.
High-resolution projections of the future climate are required to assess climate change realistically at a regional scale. This is in particular important for climate change impact studies since global projections are much too coarse to represent local conditions adequately. A major concern is thereby the change of extreme values in a warming climate due to their severe impact on the natural environment, socio-economical systems and the human health. Regional climate models (RCMs) are, however, able to reproduce much of those local features. Current horizontal resolutions are about 18-25km, which is still too coarse to directly resolve small-scale processes such as deep-convection. For this reason, projections of a possible future climate were simulated in this study with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at horizontal resolutions of 4.5km and 1.3km for the region of Saarland-Lorraine-Luxemburg and Rhineland-Palatinate for the first time. At a horizontal scale of about 1km deep-convection is treated explicitly, which is expected to improve particularly the simulation of convective summer precipitation and a better resolved orography is expected to improve near surface fields such as 2m temperature. These simulations were performed as 10-year long time-slice experiments for the present climate (1991"2000), the near future (2041"2050) and the end of the century (2091"2100). The climate change signals of the annual and seasonal means and the change of extremes are analysed with respect to precipitation and 2m temperature and a possible added value due to the increased resolution is investigated. To assess changes in extremes, extreme indices have been applied and 10- and 20-year return levels were estimated by "peak-over-threshold" models. Since it is generally known that model output of RCMs should not directly be used for climate change impact studies, the precipitation and temperature fields were bias-corrected with several quantile-matching methods. Among them is a new developed parametric method which includes an extension for extreme values and is hence expected to improve the correction. In addition, the impact of the bias-correction on the climate change signals and on the extreme value statistics was investigated. The results reveal a significant warming of the annual mean by about +1.7 -°C until 2041"2050 and +3.7 -°C until 2091"2100, but considerably stronger signals of up to +5 -°C in summer in the Rhine Valley. Furthermore, the daily variability increases by about +0.8 -°C in summer but decreases by about -0.8 -°C in winter. Consequently, hot extremes increase moderately until the mid of the century but strongly thereafter, in particular in the Rhine Valley. Cold extremes warm continuously in the complete domain in the next 100 years but strongest in mountainous areas. The change signals with regard to annual precipitation are of the order -±10% but not significant. Significant, however, are a predicted increase of +32% of the seasonal precipitation in autumn until 2041"2050 and a decrease of -28% in summer until 2091-2100. No significant changes were found for days with intensities > 20 mm/day, but the results indicate that extremes with return periods ≤2 years increase as well as the frequency and duration of dry periods. The bias-corrections amplified positive signals but dampened negative signals and considerably reduced the power of detection. Moreover, absolute values and frequencies of extremes were altered by the correction but change signals remained approximately constant. The new method outperformed other parametric methods, in particular with regard to extreme value correction and related extreme indices and return levels. Although the bias correction removed systematic errors, it should be treated as an additional layer of uncertainty in climate change studies. Finally, the increased resolution of 1.3km improved predominantly the representation of temperature fields and extremes in terms of spatial heterogeneity. The benefits for summer precipitation were not as clear due to a severe dry-bias in summer, but it could be shown that in principle the onset and intensity of convection improves. This work demonstrates that climate change will have severe impacts in this investigation area and that in particular extremes may change considerably. An increased resolution provides thereby an added value to the results. These findings encourage further investigations, for other variables as for example near-surface wind, which will be more feasible with growing computing resources. These analyses should, however, be repeated with longer time series, different RCMs and anthropogenic scenarios to determine the robustness and uncertainty of these results more extensively.
Measurements of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) structure were performed for three years (October 2017–August 2020) at the Russian observatory “Ice Base Cape Baranova” (79.280° N, 101.620° E) using SODAR (Sound Detection And Ranging). These measurements were part of the YOPP (Year of Polar Prediction) project “Boundary layer measurements in the high Arctic” (CATS_BL) within the scope of a joint German–Russian project. In addition to SODAR-derived vertical profiles of wind speed and direction, a suite of complementary measurements at the observatory was available. ABL measurements were used for verification of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) with a 5 km resolution for 2017–2020. The CCLM was run with nesting in ERA5 data in a forecast mode for the measurement period. SODAR measurements were mostly limited to wind speeds <12 m/s since the signal was often lost for higher winds. The SODAR data showed a topographical channeling effect for the wind field in the lowest 100 m and some low-level jets (LLJs). The verification of the CCLM with near-surface data of the observatory showed good agreement for the wind and a negative bias for the 2 m temperature. The comparison with SODAR data showed a positive bias for the wind speed of about 1 m/s below 100 m, which increased to 1.5 m/s for higher levels. In contrast to the SODAR data, the CCLM data showed the frequent presence of LLJs associated with the topographic channeling in Shokalsky Strait. Although SODAR wind profiles are limited in range and have a lot of gaps, they represent a valuable data set for model verification. However, a full picture of the ABL structure and the climatology of channeling events could be obtained only with the model data. The climatological evaluation showed that the wind field at Cape Baranova was not only influenced by direct topographic channeling under conditions of southerly winds through the Shokalsky Strait but also by channeling through a mountain gap for westerly winds. LLJs were detected in 37% of all profiles and most LLJs were associated with channeling, particularly LLJs with a jet speed ≥ 15 m/s (which were 29% of all LLJs). The analysis of the simulated 10 m wind field showed that the 99%-tile of the wind speed reached 18 m/s and clearly showed a dipole structure of channeled wind at both exits of Shokalsky Strait. The climatology of channeling events showed that this dipole structure was caused by the frequent occurrence of channeling at both exits. Channeling events lasting at least 12 h occurred on about 62 days per year at both exits of Shokalsky Strait.
The parameterization of ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere interaction processes is a challenge for regional climate models (RCMs) of the Arctic, particularly for wintertime conditions, when small fractions of thin ice or open water cause strong modifications of the boundary layer. Thus, the treatment of sea ice and sub-grid flux parameterizations in RCMs is of crucial importance. However, verification data sets over sea ice for wintertime conditions are rare. In the present paper, data of the ship-based experiment Transarktika 2019 during the end of the Arctic winter for thick one-year ice conditions are presented. The data are used for the verification of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). In addition, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are used for the comparison of ice surface temperature (IST) simulations of the CCLM sea ice model. CCLM is used in a forecast mode (nested in ERA5) for the Norwegian and Barents Seas with 5 km resolution and is run with different configurations of the sea ice model and sub-grid flux parameterizations. The use of a new set of parameterizations yields improved results for the comparisons with in-situ data. Comparisons with MODIS IST allow for a verification over large areas and show also a good performance of CCLM. The comparison with twice-daily radiosonde ascents during Transarktika 2019, hourly microwave water vapor measurements of first 5 km in the atmosphere and hourly temperature profiler data show a very good representation of the temperature, humidity and wind structure of the whole troposphere for CCLM.
Low-level jets (LLJs) are climatological features in polar regions. It is well known that katabatic winds over the slopes of the Antarctic ice sheet are associated with strong LLJs. Barrier winds occurring, e.g., along the Antarctic Peninsula may also show LLJ structures. A few observational studies show that LLJs occur over sea ice regions. We present a model-based climatology of the wind field, of low-level inversions and of LLJs in the Weddell Sea region of the Antarctic for the period 2002–2016. The sensitivity of the LLJ detection on the selection of the wind speed maximum is investigated. The common criterion of an anomaly of at least 2 m/s is extended to a relative criterion of wind speed decrease above and below the LLJ. The frequencies of LLJs are sensitive to the choice of the relative criterion, i.e., if the value for the relative decrease exceeds 15%. The LLJs are evaluated with respect to the frequency distributions of height, speed, directional shear and stability for different regions. LLJs are most frequent in the katabatic wind regime over the ice sheet and in barrier wind regions. During winter, katabatic LLJs occur with frequencies of more than 70% in many areas. Katabatic LLJs show a narrow range of heights (mostly below 200 m) and speeds (typically 10–20 m/s), while LLJs over the sea ice cover a broad range of speeds and heights. LLJs are associated with surface inversions or low-level lifted inversions. LLJs in the katabatic wind and barrier wind regions can last several days during winter. The duration of LLJs is sensitive to the LLJ definition criteria. We propose to use only the absolute criterion for model studies.
The reduction of information contained in model time series through the use of aggregating statistical performance measures is very high compared to the amount of information that one would like to draw from it for model identification and calibration purposes. It is readily known that this loss imposes important limitations on model identification and -diagnostics and thus constitutes an element of the overall model uncertainty as essentially different model realizations with almost identical performance measures (e.g. r-² or RMSE) can be generated. In three consecutive studies the present work proposes an alternative approach towards hydrological model evaluation based on the application of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM; Kohonen, 2001). The Self-Organizing Map is a type of artificial neural network and unsupervised learning algorithm that is used for clustering, visualization and abstraction of multidimensional data. It maps vectorial input data items with similar patterns onto contiguous locations of a discrete low-dimensional grid of neurons. The iterative training of the SOM causes the neurons to form a discrete, data-compressed representation of the high-dimensional input data. Using appropriate visualization techniques, information on distributions, patterns and relationships in complex data sets can be extracted. Irrespective of their potential, SOM applications have earned very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to other artificial neural network techniques. Therefore, the aim of the present work is to demonstrate that the application of Self-Organizing Maps has very high potential to address fundamental issues of model evaluation: It is shown that the clustering and classification of model time series by means of SOM can provide useful insights into model behaviour. In combination with the diagnostic properties of Signature Indices (Gupta et al., 2008; Yilmaz et al., 2008) SOM provides a novel tool for interpreting the model parameters in the hydrological context and identifying parameter sets that simultaneously meet multiple objectives, even if the corresponding model realizations belong to different models. Moreover, the presented studies and reviews also encourage further studies on the application of SOM in hydrological modelling.
Aus dem Wunsch, die zentralen Prozesse im System Boden"Pflanze"Atmosphäre einschließlich der Auswirkungen verschiedener Bewirtschaftungspraktiken zu verstehen und nachzubilden, resultiert die Entwicklung verschiedener Pflanzenwachstumsmodelle. Ziel der vorliegenden Untersuchung ist zum einen, die im Realsystem auftretenden räumlichen Ertragsmuster zu identifizieren und zu charakterisieren. Mithilfe der Semivariogramm-Analyse ist eine räumliche Autokorrelation der Ertragsdaten von maximal 48 Meter abzuleiten. Die räumliche Analyse (GIS) zeigt, dass die Sommergerste ein leicht abweichendes Verhalten im Vergleich zu den Winterkulturen (Winterweizen, Winterraps) aufweist. Schließlich werden mithilfe der selbstorganisierenden Merkmalskarten die primär und sekundär für das Ertragsverhalten verantwortlichen Ursachen identifiziert. Eine abschließende hierarchische Clusteranalyse gliedert die in die Untersuchung eingehenden Standorte in vier spezifische Cluster mit charakteristischen Eigenschaften. Ein zweites Ziel ist die Klärung der Frage, ob die Pflanzenwachstumsmodelle STICS und DAISY bei entsprechender Parametrisierung in der Lage sind, das für ein detektiertes Muster charakteristische Verhalten von Pflanzenwachstum und Ertrag realitätsnah abzubilden. Den Modellanwendungen gehen eine Sensitivitätsanalyse und verschiedene Parametrisierungsansätze zur Erfassung des jeweiligen Modellverhaltens voraus. In beiden Modellen übt der Bodenwasserhaushalt einen starken Einfluss auf die Ertragsbildung aus. Des weiteren kommt in beiden Modellen den Stressfaktoren eine zentrale Bedeutung zu. Die Parametrisierung der Modelle auf der Grundlage der im Feld erhobenen Daten führt bei beiden Modellen nicht zu einem dem Realsystem entsprechenden Bild. Eine über die Sensitivitätsanalyse hinausreichende, vertiefte Modellkenntnis ist erforderlich, um die in die Modelle eingehenden Parameter bzw. deren spezifischen Einfluss auf das Modellverhalten beurteilen und interpretieren zu können. Dies betrifft insbesondere die Modellgrößen der Bodenmodule. Dieser Aspekt erschwert eine einfache räumliche Übertragung der Modelle STICS und DAISY.